An emerging strategic energy relationship

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1 KPMG GLOBAL ENERGY INSTITUTE An emerging strategic energy relationship kpmg.com/energy KPMG INTERNATIONAL

2

3 An emerging strategic energy relationship GCC KPMG Hak Bin Pek KPMG Hilda Mulock Houwer KPMG Dr. Valérie Marcel KPMG NOC

4 2 An emerging strategic energy relationship OPEC Figure 1: Top 10 global liquids growth areas to Production growth (million b/d) Iraq US Brazil Canada Biofuels Saudi Arabia Tight oil (outside the US) Libya UAE Kazakhstan Tight oil OPEC Non-OPEC Source: Wood Mackenzie Global Oil Supply Tool, WSJ, 5 December 2011

5 An emerging strategic energy relationship John Mitchell, What Next for the Oil and Gas Industry?, Chatham House report, October 2012

6 4 An emerging strategic energy relationship 1 2 GCC GCC Figure 2: Fiscal break-even oil prices and fiscal cost curve Upward fiscal cost curve IRN Fiscal break even price (S/bbl) QAT KUW ANG UAE SAU Down pressure on oil prices LIB VEN ECU IRQ NIG ALG Cumulative petroleum production (mbd) Source: Ali Aissaoui, Modeling OPEC Fiscal Break even Oil Prices: New Findings and Policy Insights, APICORP s Economic Commentary, September October Reyadh Faras, Presentation at the Natural Resource Charter Annual Conference, Kuwait City, 29 May 2013.

7 An emerging strategic energy relationship 5 Figure 3: Population pyramid for GCC % 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 5.9% 1.1% 7.1% 1.4% 8.4% 2.2% 2.4% 2.7% 3.1% 3.4% 4.0% 4.3% 5.4% 5.1% 6.9% 6.4% 8.5% 7.8% 9.6% 8.1% 9.1% 7.0% 7.5% 6.5% 6.8% 6.9% 7.3% 7.9% 8.3% Population (in millions) Female Male Source: Population by Five-year Age Group and Sex, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs website, accessed October 2013 Figure 4: General and youth unemployment rates in select countries 30% 50% 45% Unemployment rate 25% 20% 15% 10% 24.4% 19.6% 27.3% 13.5% 25.0% 25.9% 12.5% 12.1% 45.3% 11.0% 20.7% 23.3% 17% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Youth unemployment rate 5% 6.3% 10% 0% Oman Libya Iran Saudi Arabia Unemployment rate Iraq UAE Bahrain Kuwait Qatar Youth unemployment rate 4.2% 3.4% 2.1% 0.6% Sources: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013, IMF website, country&ds=.&br=1&c=512%2c682%2c612%2c686%2c419%2c449%2c611%2c564%2c469%2c453%2c429%2c456%2c433%2c732%2c439%2c463%2c443%2c744%2c446%2c466% 2C672%2C474&s=LUR&grp=0&a=, accessed October 2013 UAE 2013 Article IV Consultation, IMF website, accessed September 2013 Iraq 2013 Article IV Consultation, IMF website, accessed September 2013 Libya 2013 Article IV Consultation, IMF website, accessed September 2013 Job Creation in the Arab Economies: Navigating Through Difficult Waters, Arab Human Development Report website, accessed October % 0%

8 6 An emerging strategic energy relationship IMF 2011 GCC 20 IMF 2011 GCC Figure 5: Government expenditure growth, 2011 (Contributions to total, percentage points, US$ terms) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 19% 19% -13% Bahrain 3% 4% 15% Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE GCC Current expenditure Capital expenditure Source: Country authorities, Bloomberg, IMF staff calculations (in Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries, IMF, October 2012) 5% 18% 13% 27% 0.5% 12% 6.5% 22%

9 An emerging strategic energy relationship , G. Lahn, P. Stevens, F. Preston, Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf, Chatham House report, August Ibid.

10 8 An emerging strategic energy relationship GCC CSR CEO 2011

11 An emerging strategic energy relationship 9 I 6 4 ADNOC Box 1 Figure 6: Nationality of companies winning licenses in Iraq (2008, 2009, 2010, 2012) Particpation in bidding rounds (number of companies that have won stakes in blocks) Note: MEA refers to Middle East and Africa Source: EIA, Asia Europe MEA North America Russia/Central Asia 2 5 Box JODCO Middle East Economic Survey MEES KNOC MEES

12 10 An emerging strategic energy relationship 1 GCC Box 2 ASEAN9 1 8 ASEAN GCC 20

13 An emerging strategic energy relationship 11 Box 2 GCC GCC : CNPC 15 S SABIC10 KPC KPI ADNOC GCC KPC KUFPEC 49 GCC LNG LNG 5 KNOC 3 30 ADNOC GCC CNPC CNOOC KOGAS JAPEX INPEX PT CNPC PTTEP CIF GCC KPC KPI 35.1 QP QPI QP QPI GCC KPC KUFPEC KPC KUFPEC GCC KOGAS LNG GCC ONGC PTTEP

14 12 An emerging strategic energy relationship Box 2 KPC 7 KPC JBIC ADNOC ADNOC JBIC IPIC 20 JOGMEC ADNOC ADNOC 7 Japan s Showa Shell Cuts Iran Oil Imports, Renews Deal-sources, Reuters website, article/2012/04/18/japan-iran-showa-idusl3e8fi2sl , accessed October 2013; SABIC IN ASIA PACIFIC, SABIC website, accessed October 2013; KUFPEC to Acquire Additional 34.3% Interest In Yacheng Gas Field, Offshore China, from BP for US$308 Million, Research Views website, accessed October 2013; Oman LNG, Oman LNG website, accessed October 2013; Overview of Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical LLC, Idemitsu website, accessed October 2013; KUFPEC Now an Operator in Pakistan, KUFPEC website, KUFPECNews/Pages/In%20Pakistan.aspx#myAnchor, accessed October 2013; South East Asia, KUFPEC website, accessed October 2013; Saudi Aramco, Pertamina To Set Up $8b Oil Refinery in Indonesia, Saudi Gazette website, ontentid= , accessed October 2013; South Korea GCC Economic Relations: An Overview, Gulf Research Center website, accessed October 2013; Iraq, South Korea Ink Strategic Crude Storage Deal, International Oil Daily, 16 September 2013, via Factiva, accessed October 2013; India, Iraq Ink Energy Pact To Boost Oil Imports, The Financial Express, 24 August 2013, via Factiva, accessed October 2013; Kuwait Petroleum, SK Energy Ink MoU To Develop Oil Refinery, Middle East North Africa Financial Network (MENAFN), 6 September 2013, via Factiva, accessed October Platts, 12 February 2013

15 An emerging strategic energy relationship EPC SABIC GCC

16 14 An emerging strategic energy relationship Box 3 9 Box 3 CO 2 KAIST Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology LNG SABIC 6 JOGMEC QP 9 Saudi Aramco To Open 3 US Research Centers, Rigzone website, Saudi_Aramco_to_Open_3_US_Research_Centers, accessed October 2013; Jogmec-QP MoU, LNG Intelligence, 3 September 2013, via Factiva, accessed October 2013

17 An emerging strategic energy relationship 15

18 16 An emerging strategic energy relationship 2 CEO 10 OECD China Development Forum, Beijing, 21 March John Mitchell, What Next for the Oil and Gas Industry?, Chatham House report, October 2012

19 The KPMG Global Energy Institute (GEI): 2007 GEI Thought leadership GEI #kpmg_gei The KPMG Global Energy Conference (GEC): The KPMG Global Energy Conference GEC KPMG KPMG Global Energy Institute #kpmggec kpmg.com/energy kpmgglobalenergyconference.com KPMG KPMG KPMG KPMG kpmg.com/jp/energy ENERGY@jp.kpmg.com

20 Contact us Hak Bin Pek Head of Oil & Gas, Asia Pacific KPMG in Singapore T: E: Hilda Mulock Houwer Global Advisory Leader, Energy and Natural Resources KPMG in Qatar T: E: Head of Energy & Natural Resources KPMG in Japan T: Ext 6742 E: Head of Oil & Gas KPMG in Japan T: E: kpmg.com/energy kpmg.com/socialmedia kpmg.com/app KPMG International Cooperative An emerging strategic energy relationship 2014 KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved KPMG AZSA LLC, a limited liability audit corporation incorporated under the Japanese Certified Public Accountants Law and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Japan. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Designed by Evalueserve Publication name: An emerging strategic energy relationship Publication number: Japan Publication date: January 2014

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