,439 / , / , / ,319. / FRB 3 4 1: London PM fix US$/oz 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1
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1 London PM fix ,439. / ETF 3 4 OTC Juan Carlos Artigas juancarlos.artigas@gold.org Johan Palmberg johan.palmberg@gold.org Eily Ong eily.ong@gold.org Louise Street louise.street@gold.org Marcus Grubb, marcus.grubb@gold.org Gold Investment Digest First Quarter 211
2 ,439 / , / , / ,319. / FRB 3 4 1: London PM fix US$/oz 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, /28 9/28 3/29 9/28 3/21 9/21 3/211 Source: LBMA 211 1
3 ECB , / 3 1 G MSCI : - Last price 31 Mar max 211 min QoQ YoY Vol* US$/oz 1,439. 1,447. 1, GBP/oz EUR/oz 1,14.9 1, CHF/oz 1, , , JPY/oz 119, , , CAD/oz 1, ,413. 1, AUD/oz 1, , , *Annualised volatility based on daily returns. Source: Bloomberg, LBMA, World Gold Council 2: Gold (US$/oz) BarCap US Tsy Agg BarCap Global Tsy ex US J.P. Morgan GBI J.P. Morgan EMBIG S&P 5 MSCI Europe Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Index BSE Sensex 3 S&P GSCI Note: For comparison purposes, gold performance was computed using 5pm EST prices. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital, J.P. Morgan 2_33
4 / 62,2 / 29 / JP EMBIG 1 1 (Hang Seng Index) BSE Sensex : Last price 31 Mar max 211 min QoQ YoY Vol* RUB/oz 4, , , TRY/oz 2, , , CNY/oz 9, , , INR/oz 64, , , ZAR/oz 9, , , *Annualised volatility based on daily returns. Source: Bloomberg, LBMA, World Gold Council S&P GSCI DJ-UBS / 3 / / : QoQ YoY Vol* Gold London PM fix (US$/oz) Silver London fix (US$/oz) Palladium (US$/oz) Platinum (US$/oz) Aluminum (US$/t) Copper (US$/t) Lead (US$/t) Nickel (US$/t) Tin (US$/t) Zinc (US$/t) Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) S&P GS Commodity Index S&P GS Agriculture Index S&P GS Livestock Index DJ-UBS Commodity Index R/J CRB Commodity Index *Annualised volatility during Q1 211 based on daily returns. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council 211 1
5 VIX S&P GSCI : S&P GSCI 22 VIX 9 8 Index level /28 7/28 1/28 1/29 4/29 7/29 1/29 1/21 4/21 7/21 1/21 1/211 Gold (US$/oz, lhs) S&P GSCI (lhs) VIX Index (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council 4: Gold London PM fix (US$/oz) S&P GS Livestock Index DJ-UBS Commodity Index R/J CRB Commodity Index Aluminum (US$/t) Platinum (US$/oz) Source: Bloomberg, LBMA, World Gold Council S&P GS Commodity Index Copper (US$/t) Zinc (US$/t) Tin (US$/t) S&P GS Agriculture Index Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) Nickel (US$/t) Palladium (US$/oz) Lead (US$/t) Silver London fix (US$/oz) 1 VIX S&P5 4_55
6 211 1 ETF ETF 1 1 ETF ETF ETF ETF 1 ETF 2, NYSE SPDR GLD ETFS Physical Gold Shares GBS NYSE ishares Gold Trust IAU Julius Baer Physical Gold UBS Index Solutions-Gold ETF ETF ETF 211 1
7 5: ETF Tonnes 2,5 US$/oz 1,5 2, 1,26 1,5 1,2 1, Gold price (US$/oz, rhs) GBS (ASX) GBS (LSE) NewGold (JSE) GLD (NYSE) IAU (Amex) ZKB Gold ETF (SWX) GOLDIST (Istanbul Stock Exchange) ETFS Physical Gold (LSE) XETRA-Gold (DB) Julius Baer Physical Gold (SWX) ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSE) ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (LSE) Source Gold ETC (London) UBS Index Solutions- Gold ETF (SWX) db Gold ETC (DB) CS II Gold ETF (SWX) RBS Physical Gold (DB) Dubai Gold Securities Note: Gold holdings are as reported by the ETF/ETC issuers. Where data is unavailable, holdings have been calculated using reported AUM numbers. Source: Bloomberg, LBMA, Respective ETF/ETC providers, World Gold Council 6_7
8 ETF ETF GLD SPDRETF 1 GLD , , GLD GLD 3 ATM COMEX , ,63 3 2,4 6 7 OTC OTC OTC LBMA OTC 67 2,11 LBMA OTC ETF ETF OTC
9 6: COMEX * Million oz 4 US$/oz 1,5 35 1, , , , Gold active net-long positions (million oz, lhs) Gold (US$/oz, rhs) *Net long non-commercial and non-reportable contracts. Source: Bloomberg, COMEX, World Gold Council 5 7: Producer net long Money manager net long Swap dealer net long Other net long Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council 8_9
10 ,424.6 ICBC GAP BOT Gold Passbook Gold Passbook : * oz Q1 7 Q2 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 Q2 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Q oz coin sales Total sales *Total sales include one, half, quarter and tenth ounce coins. Source: The United States Mint 2 Gold Passbook
11 LIBOR GOFO LIBOR GOFO : /27 7/27 1/28 7/28 1/29 7/29 1/21 7/21 Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council 1_11
12 EU EU FRB
13 2 China gold report: Gold in the year of the tiger India: heart of gold : 1 Tonnes 1,2 Combined average share of global demand 2 in : 24 Combined share of global demand 2 in 21: 4 1, India China 1 Includes jewellery and total bar and coin demand only (excludes ETFs and similar, and techology). 2 Global demand includes demand for jewellery, bars, coins, ETFs and similar, and technology. Source: GFMS, World Gold Council _13
14 FRB CPI CPI CPI Inflation Revisionism The Economist
15 11: Europe UK US Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, UK Office for National Statistics 12: CPI China India Asia (all items) Source: China Economic Information Net, IMF, Press Information Bureau of India 14_1515
16 S&P GSCI DJ-UBS 3 7 Gold: A commodity like no other VaR ,
17 4: 1 Gold (US$/oz) MSCI US MSCI ex US BarCap US Agg JPM 3M Tbill S&P GSCI Light January 1991 to December 21 Portfolio 2 gold 5 gold 1 gold Return Volatility Inf. ratio VaR Return Volatility Inf. ratio VaR Return Volatility Inf. ratio VaR Return Volatility Inf. ratio VaR Calculations are based on weekly total returns and converted to annualised return and volatility when applicable. 2 Portfolio using a 3 allocation to US equities, 2 to international equities, 39 to fixed income, 1 to cash and various allocations to gold and commodity indices. A gold allocation is equivalent to a 1 allocation to the S&P GSLE; 5 in gold implies 5 in S&P GSLE; and a 1 gold weight implies a allocation to S&P GSLE. Source: Barclays Capital, J.P. Morgan, MSCI, Standard & Poor s, World Gold Council : 1 Commodity Jewellery Demand Investment/ bars and coins Supply Technology/ industry Mine production Recycling Other sources Gold Silver Copper Platinum As of 29 except for gold for which 21 figures are available. 2 Includes net central bank activity which accounted for 2 of gold demand in Primarily used in electronics and other high-end technology uses. 4 Includes silverware. Source: GFMS, Johnson Matthey, International Copper Institute, The Silver Institute, US Geological Survey, World Gold Council 16_1717
18 Gold Demand Trends , , Gold Demand Trends
19 13: 1 Tonnes 9 US$bn Q1 6 Q2 6 Q3 6 Q4 6 Q1 7 Q2 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 Q2 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Tonnes (lhs) US$bn (rhs) Source: GFMS, World Gold Council 14: India Hong Kong Russia China Saudi Arabia UAE Japan Vietnam Turkey Egypt US UK Taiwan Thailand South Korea Italy Indonesia Source: GFMS 18_19
20 , , , ,672 1,
21 15: Tonnes Q1 6 Q2 6 Q3 6 Q4 6 Q1 7 Q2 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 Q2 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Source: GFMS Electronics Other industrial Dentistry 16: Tonnes Q1 6 Q2 6 Q3 6 Q4 6 Q1 7 Q2 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 Q2 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Mine production Recycled gold Source: GFMS 2_21
22 IMF
23 17: 45 US$mn 9, 4 8, 35 7, 3 6, 25 5, 2 4, 15 3, 1 2, 5 1, Gold as of total reserves (lhs) Foreign exchange reserves (US$mn, rhs) Source: IMF International Financial Statistics 6: IFS 1 Tonnes of reserves 2 1 United States 8, Germany 3, IMF 2, Italy 2, France 2, China 1, Switzerland 1, Russia Japan Netherlands India ECB Taiwan Portugal Venezuela Tonnes of reserves 2 16 Saudi Arabia United Kingdom Lebanon Spain Austria Belgium Algeria Philippines Libya Singapore Sweden South Africa BIS Turkey Greece This table was updated in April, 211 and reports data available at that time. Data is taken from the International Monetary Fund s International Financial Statistics (IFS), April 211 edition, and other sources where applicable. IFS data is two months in arrears, so holdings are as of February 211 for most countries, January 211 or earlier for late reporters. The table does not list all gold holders: countries which have not reported their gold holdings to the IMF in the last six months are not included, while other countries are known to hold gold but they do not report their holdings publicly. Where the World Gold Council knows of movements that are not reported to the IMF, or misprints, changes have been made. The countries showing as having. tonnes of gold report some gold but less than.5 tonnes to the IMF. 2 The percentage share held in gold of total foreign reserves, as calculated by the World Gold Council. The value of gold holdings is calculated using the end of month London PM fix gold price published daily by the LBMA. In February, the end of month gold price was US$1,42.5. Data for the value of other reserves are taken from IFS, table Total Reserves minus Gold. 3 BIS and IMF balance sheets do not allow this percentage to be calculated. In the case of any countries, up-to-date data for other reserves are not available. 4 BIS data is updated each year from the BIS s annual report to reflect the Bank s gold investment assets excluding any gold held in connection with swap operations, under which the Bank exchanges currencies for physical gold. The bank has an obligation to return the gold at the end of the contract. Source: IMF, national data, World Gold Council 22_23
24 7: Tonnes QoQ* YoY* Value ($bn) YoY* Jewellery 2, , Identifiable investment 1, , of which ETFs and similar products ,51-29 Industrial and dental , *Quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year change in rolling four-quarter totals. Source: GFMS, World Gold Council 8: Tonnes QoQ* YoY* Value ($bn) YoY* Mining output 2, , Net producer hedging ,879 - Total mine supply 2, ,83 38 Official sales ,544 - Recycled gold 1, ,538 3 *Quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year change in rolling four-quarter totals. Source: GFMS, World Gold Council 9: Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Gold (US$/oz); London PM fix average 1, , , , QoQ YoY Source: LBMA, World Gold Council 1: * month 3-month 6-month 1-year Gold (US$/oz) *Annualised daily return volatility. Source: LBMA, World Gold Council 11: Value (US$ bn) Above ground stocks of gold 1 7,425.3 ETFs (as at 31 March 211) Notional value of net long non-commercial and non-reportable positions as reported by CFTC gold futures (at 31 March 211) Based on end-21 volume and Q1 211 average gold price. 2 Data: Zurich Kantonalbank; Finans Portföy; Source: CFTC, GFMS, LBMA, World Gold Council 211 1
25 12: Gold (US$/oz) Trade-weighted US dollar Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) DJ-UBS Commodity Index BarCap US Treasury Aggregate BarCap US Credit Index S&P 5 MSCI World ex-us MSCI Europe (euro) NIKKEI (yen) Hang Seng (yuan) MSCI India (rupee) DJ/Wilshire REITs Index 1-month month month year Volatility 2 (1-year) Performance computations in US$ unless otherwise noted. 2 Annualised daily return volatility. Source: Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, IHS Global Insight, World Gold Council 13: * Gold (US$/oz) Trade-weighted US dollar Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) S&P GS Commodity Index DJ-UBS Commodity Index BarCap 1-3 month T-bills BarCap US Treasury Aggregate BarCap US Credit Index BarCap US High Yield Index S&P 5 DJ Industrial Average MSCI World ex US DJ/Wilshire REITs Index Gold (US$/oz) 1. Trade-weighted US$ Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) S&P GS Commodity Index DJ-UBS Commodity Index BarCap 1-3 month T-bills BarCap US Treasury Aggregate BarCap US Credit Index BarCap US High Yield Index S&P DJ Industrial Average MSCI World ex US DJ/Wilshire REITs Index *Correlations based on weekly returns in US$ unless otherwise noted. Source: Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, IHS Global Insight, World Gold Council 24_25
26 1 Old Bailey, London EC4M 7NG, United Kingdom Copyright 211. All rights reserved. i ii research@gold.org info@gold.org 211 1
27 The printer is accredited to ISO141 environmental standard. I192114
28 World Gold Council 1 Old Bailey, London EC4M 7NG United Kingdom E investment@gold.org T F W : : 211 5
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1 5 : ICE 8 Ashish Bhatia ashish.bhatia@gold.org +1 212 317 385 Natalie Dempster natalie.dempster@gold.org +44 2 7826 477 211 5 Gold as a source of collateral http://www.gold.org 27 9 OTC 2 G2 CCP CCP
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The Japanese economy in FY2015 suffered from sluggish growth in individual consumption, while the foreign exchange market remained unstable with high volatility. Even in such an economic environment, MSF
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