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1 /Review A Trial of Establishing an Approach of Hisashi TANAKA Abstract This paper is trying to establish an approach of the Integrated Risk Management which is focusing especially on the methodology and usage of a balanced approach in strategic planning using risk appetite concept. Risk appetite is not yet so common, but it is very important concept in risk management, in particular, in dealing with strategic risks. The aim of this approach is not to avoid risks, but to take risks reasonably for increasing the enterprise value. This approach is not fully established, therefore, two case studies are presented for better understanding of its gist and improving this approach and methodologies further. Keywords integrated risk management, risk appetite, balanced approach, strategic risk, two case studies 1. COSO-ERM risk appetite The Arcs Laboratory, Yakumo, Meguro-ku, Tokyo Received: 27 January 2015, 14 February 2015 [1] [2] Oukan Vol.9, No.1 27

2 Tanaka, H. Fig. 1: Fig. 3: COSO Fig. 4: ISO31000 Fig. 2: Fig. 1 forwardlooking Fig ISO31000:2009 COSO-ERM 2 ISO31000:2009 COSO-ERM COSO-ERM 2004 ERM Enterprise Risk Management COSO Fig. 3 [3] ERM [4] J-SOX 4 8 Fig. 4 ISO31000:2009 [5] COSO-ERM COSO

3 A Trial of Establishing an Approach of Fig. 5: Fig. 7: Fig. 6: S&P Fig. 5 Fig. 5 3 S&P [6] Fig Fig. 7 Fig Table Fig. 8 Oukan Vol.9, No.1 29

4 Tanaka, H. Table 1: Fig. 11: 3.2 Fig. 8: Fig. 9: Fig. 10: [7, 8] Fig. 9 Fig N i E(R i ) σ 2 i i j ρ ij i X i E(R p )= (X i E(R i )) σ p σ 2 p = X i X j ρ ij σ i σ j, i = 1,2,...N, j = 1,2,...N X i Fig. 11 [9, 10] 3.4 B S 3.3 VaR (Value at Risk)

5 A Trial of Establishing an Approach of Fig. 12: EaR (Earning at Risk) EaR Fig. 12 P L EaR EaR(σ 1 )=EE UE, EaR(σ 2 )=EE 2 UE (1) EE: Expected Earning UE: Unexpected Earning EaR EaR(σ 1 ) EaR(σ 2 ) EaR EaR(σ 1 ) 84.1% EaR(σ 2 ) 97.7% EaR(ρ) EaR(ρ)= EE i (UE i )(UE j )ρ ij (2) EaR 3.4 Fig. 7 COSO-ERM 3 1 2Integrated Reporting 3 [1] COSO B S BCM BCP & [11, 12] (1) (2) (3) (4) Oukan Vol.9, No.1 31

6 Tanaka, H. (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) 2 & M&A Fig & Fig. 14 Fig. 13: Fig. 14: & R 1 Fig Fig

7 A Trial of Establishing an Approach of Fig. 15: 日本郵船に係る定量インフルエンスダイアグラム Fig. 17: セブン&アイホールディングスに係る定量イン フルエンスダイアグラム Fig. 16: ドライバルク市況 との相関係数が高い 2 株 セブン&アイホールディングス セブン&アイホールディングスについても同様に作成 し Fig. 17 に示す これにより企業の損益に影響を与 える幾つかのリスク事象と損益との定量的な相関関係を 可視化することができた 4.4 損益推移のグラフ化 リスクの評価を行う前に 各種損益やキャッシュフロー 等の時系列変動の状況をグラフ化により可視化し観察す ることは必須のステップである 1 日本郵船 株 Excel 版 Fig. 18 各種損益もキャッシュフローもリーマンショック時の 2008 年 図で縦赤破線で示す に曲がり角を迎えてい るが 営業利益では 定期船事業と不定期船事業の変動 が大きく 影響も大きい 定期船事業は 収益が低いこ とが課題である 営業活動によるキャッシュフローは 常に 約 1,000 億円を維持しているが 投資活動による キャッシュフローは 2008 年を境に 漸増から漸減へ転 換し その結果 現金等の期末残高は 2009 年から漸 増し 1,000 億円から 3,000 億円に増加している Fig. 18: 日本郵船に係る損益/キャッシュフローの推移 Oukan Vol.9, No.1 33

8 Tanaka, H. Fig. 20: Fig. 21: & Fig. 19: & 2 & R Excel Fig R Excel Fig & & Fig R Excel Fig. 22 R Fig. 23 Excel R 1 Excel 2 & R

9 A Trial of Establishing an Approach of Table 2: EaR σ = 1 σ = 2 σ = 3 ρ = ρ = ρ = ρ = Fig. 22: PL Excel R R Excel R 3 1 2σ R 90 EaR3.3 R R sum.mean< sum(mean) (3) sum.sd< sum(sd) (4) earcor r1< (sum.mean sqrt(sd% %cor% %sd)) (5) Fig. 23: &/PL R Eq. (3) Eq. (4) P L Eq. (5) cor 3.3 EaR Eq. (2) σ ρ EaR Table 2 EaR EaR EaR Fig. 24 Fig & EaR 3σ 3σ & Oukan Vol.9, No.1 35

10 Tanaka, H. Table 3: Fig. 24: More Than Shipping LNG 2 LNG 3M 3 DER1.0 BBB 4 25% 5 Table 4: Fig. 25: & Table 3 Table : 22,372/13,983=1.6 : 330/348=0.95 3σ , ,000 3,

11 A Trial of Establishing an Approach of 10 (a) 10 n = 10 (b) 10 GDP EaR R Excel R : ERM Q&T [1] : [2] : pp [3] : p [4] 2011 : ERM [5] ISO31000: [6] Progress Report: Integrating ERM Analysis Into Corporate Credit Ratings, S&P, 2009/7/22 [7] IT / [8] : p [9] : p [10] : pp [11] : IR /IR I II 26 3 [12] &: IR /IR > MBA Oukan Vol.9, No.1 37

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