DP/02-2 Discussion Paper, Version 1, JEL classification : G21, G

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1 DP/02-2 Director General for Economic Assessment and Policy Analysis CABINET OFFICE

2 DP/02-2 Discussion Paper, Version 1, JEL classification : G21, G28 keiichi.omura@mfs.cao.go.jp shinji.mizukami@mfs.cao.go.jp - i -

3 ( ) ( ) ii -

4 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) - iii -

5 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 11 ) ( ) - iv -

6 ... ii

7 FSAPFinancial Sector Assessment Program GDP 2002 Core set 2 ECB The Interaction between the Financial Sector and the Real Economy, BIS2002 Chapter / /

8 CAMELSCapital adequacy, Asset quality, Management soundness, Earnings, Liquidity, and Sensitivity CAMELS CAMELS FRB1999 2

9

10

11 12 12 Too Big To Fail

12 - 6

13

14 Expected Default Probability 8

15 14 14 Principal Component Analysis, PCA 9

16 / /

17

18 / 25 12

19

20 NEEDS,

21

22

23 17

24 18 10 ( ) ( ) 11 ( )

25

26 BIS, The 72nd Annual General Meeting of the BIS, 8 July BIS, Quarterly Review: International Banking and Financial Market Developments, ECB, Financial sectors in EU Accession Countries IMF, Financial Soundness Indicators: Analytical Aspects and Country Practices, Gilbert, R. Alton, Andrew P. Meyer, and Mark D. Vaughan, The role of Supervisory Screens and Econometric Models in Offsite Surveillance, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review Nov/Dec 1999, pp Sundararajan, V., Charles Enoch, Armida San Jose, Paul Hilbers, Russell Krueger, Marina Moretti, and Graham Slack, Financial Soundness Indicators: Analytical Aspects and County Practices, IMF Occasional Paper 212, ( ) DP/02-1(2002.5)

27 21 Yes No

28 22 15

29 23

30 24

31 13 25

32 26

33 27 Yes No

34 28

35 Moody7s Bank Deposits LT 29

36 Bureau van Dijk BankScope 30

DP/03-1 15 3 2 4 () 4 () 5 () 6 7 () 7 () 9 () 11 12 () 12 () 13 () 15 () 18 20 () 20 () 22 () 24 25 26 27 1

DP/03-1 15 3 2 4 () 4 () 5 () 6 7 () 7 () 9 () 11 12 () 12 () 13 () 15 () 18 20 () 20 () 22 () 24 25 26 27 1 DP/03-1 Director General for Economic Assessment and Policy Analysis CABINET OFFICE E-mail: takehiko.tsuji@mfs.cao.go.jp DP/03-1 15 3 2 4 () 4 () 5 () 6 7 () 7 () 9 () 11 12 () 12 () 13 () 15 () 18 20

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