気象庁委託調査

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1 ART - 103

2 1. (2-1) 2-1 : 61 20km km km km km 1 *1 *1 6 3 *2 300km 6 *3 * GPV 15 *2 15 *3 16 * (1 ) ( GPV=Grid Point Value) 104

3 1 / 2-1 : (GPV=Grid Point Value) ( ) 105

4 (2-2) 2-2 : m 2-2 /

5 : 1 < > 1 ( ) < > ( GPV ) : 12UTC TC : 34 (1 ) : : : 850hPa ( 1500m) : 500hPa ( 5000m) : 200hPa ( 12000m) : 100hPa ( 16000m) : 26 (13 ) (2-32-4) : 4 / 107

6 2-3 : 1. 4 ( ) 2. ( ) 3. 4 ( < >// < >) 2-4 : 2-4 () ( )/ / ( ) 2-4 : 108

7 : ( ) (180km) 1.125(110km) 0.4hPa hPa

8 3-1 : ( ) / / / Y Y X F 1. Y X Y = Y (X ) ( X ) 2. X F X = X (F) (3-2) Y X F Y = Y ( X ( F)) F Y 110

9 Y / X Y X ( / ) F X F ( ) 3-2 : FAX X F F Y Y = Y (F) (3-3) X Y Y / F Y F ( ) X Y 3-3 : ( 2) GPV 111

10 3-4 F / X X Y Y F (m ) F X /X ( / m ) X Y Y Y Y 3-4 : F Y / X 112

11 :

12 F X / ( ) 4-2 : 1. (GPV) ( ) / ( X ) ( F 1500m ) X F + F + Λ + + = n Fn F 2. / 1. ( ) X i / ( ) F i F X

13 ( X X ) 2 i i 1 2σ e 2πσ 2 i X i X (4-34-4) i : i : 8 115

14 (4-5) : 116

15 Earnings at Risk Earnings at Risk Value at Risk Earnings at Risk

16

17 10,

18

19 2 t i ( ( ) (, i t N σ µ ) t)2 i

20 3 m 3 ( ) (12 ) m m 3 t ( ) (12 ) m 3 m i (6) (6) µ i σ i (7) (7) µ i σ i (8) (8) µ i σ i 10,

21 22 Reliability Diagram 6-1 ( ) (Brier Score) (FiAi) 2 N Fi Ai 1 0N 0 123

22 6-1 () =

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