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8 , , , , ( ) , , , , , , , , , , IOSO , , , , , , , , SNECMA, RR, PW, Siemence , STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF AIRCRAFT TRAJECTORIES USING ENSEMBLE WEATHER FORECASTS Damiィ n Rivas Rivas, Professor, University of Seville, Seville, Spain It is well known that incorporating weather uncertainty information into the air traffic management system will benefit its overall performance, in particular in terms of cost efficiency. 8

9 13The effects of wind uncertainty on aircraft fuel consumption are analyzed using a probabilistic trajectory predictor. The case of cruise flight subject to an average constant wind is considered. The average wind is modeled as a random variable; the wind uncertainty is obtained from ensemble weather forecasts. The probabilistic trajectory predictor is based on the Probability Transformation Method, which is a method that evolves the wind probability density function; the output of the probabilistic trajectory predictor is the probability density function of the fuel consumption. A general analysis is performed for arbitrary winds following uniform and continuous beta distributions, with a twofold objective: 1) present the capabilities of the probabilistic trajectory predictor, and 2) understand how the wind uncertainty affects the fuel consumption. The general objective of this analysis is to advance in the development of a methodology to manage weather uncertainty suitable to be integrated into the trajectory planning process at the pre-tactical phase , , , , ( ) , : , , ( ), , ( ) ( ) , ,

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14 , , , ( , ) , , , , , (1 71 7) , , , ( , ュ ) , , , , , , , , ? , ( ) , , , : ; ; ; ; , , ,

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16 , , , , , ( , ), , , ( , ) , ( ) (1 71 7) , : ; ; ; , , , 1 7, [1, 2] , [3] ( ) , % 1 7, , , % (1 7 PMBOK03), ィC Project Management Institute, USA, ィC 1 7.: , , ィC 1 7.: , ィC26,

17 , , ( , ) , , , NTSB [1] 1 7, (1 71 7) , , (1 71 7) , , , , , , ( ) , , , , , , [2], : ; ; ; ; Safety Recommendation A , National Transportation Safety Board, US, Safety Assessment of Transport Airplanes in Commercial Service SAE ARP5150 (Warrendale, Pennsylvania: Society of Automotive Engineers, 2003). 17

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