1599-kato

Transcription

1 A ﾁ , 20(5):526ｨC531 APPLIED MEDICAL RESEARCH ARCHIVES OF HELLENIC MEDICINE 2003, 20(5):526ｨC ｨｴ0908ｨ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ ｨｦ00ｨｬ0500ｨｴｨｪ ｨ 0007ｨｮ000509ｨ ｨｰ... 08ｨｬ07ｨｬｨ 0107ｨｮ ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ, 04ｨ ｨｪ0208ｨｦｨｮ0007ｨｬｨｦ07 09ｨｨ04ｨｪ06ｨｪ ｨｪ 0202ｨ 09ｨｬ ｨｰ ｨｨ02ｨｴ0908ｨ ｨｰ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ ｨｦ00ｨｬ0500ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ0007 ﾂ ｨｰ ｨ ｨｰ 0208ｨｦ ﾂ02ｨｦ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｪｨ 0107ｨｨ0705ｨｪ ｨ 08ｨ ｨｪ0007ｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ ｨｮ02 01ｨｦ ｨ ｨｮ 04ｨｬｨ ｨｪ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ, ｨｹ08ｨｴｨｰ 0807ｨｦｨ 04 01ｨｦ0201ｨｺ0908ｨｪ04ｨｮ04 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ01ｨｪｨｦｨｮ00ｨｴｨｮ06ｨｪ ｨ ｨｦ00ｨｦ06ｨｪ 02ｨｬ 0205ｨｪｨｦｨｮ04ｨｰ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｪ07ｨｮ07ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ. 01ｨｦｨ ｨｪｨ 0809ｨ 00ｨｬｨ ｨｦ04ｨｨ0705ｨｪ ｨ ｨｰ 07ｨｦ 0208ｨｦ01ｨｦ ｨｦｨｰ, 0008ｨｪ07ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ 01ｨｦ ｨｰ ｨｨ06ｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ 00ｨｦｨ 00ｨｦｨｰ ｨｦ01ｨｦｨｹ ｨｰ ﾂ0701ｨｪ 07ｨｦ ｨｬ07ｨｪ050102ｨｰ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨ ｨｪ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｨ06ｨｮ02ｨｴｨｪ 07ｨｪ07ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ. 01ｨｦｨ ｨｪｨ 02ｨｺ0209ｨ ｨｮ ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨ ｨｪ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｨ06ｨｮ02ｨｴｨｪ, ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｮｨｴｨｮ ｨｪｨ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨｦｨｮ06ｨｮ02ｨｴｨｪ ｨｪ07ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ ｨｺ ｨ ｨｦ ｨ ｨｺ09ｨｦ0906ｨｰ ｨｹ0807ｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨ ｨｦ 06ｨｪｨ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨｴｨｪ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ 0705, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ0100ｨｺ02ｨｺ09ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｪｨ ｨ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｰ ｨ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ ﾂ02ｨｦ ｨｪ ｨｬｨｦｨｪｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｮ ﾂ06ｨｮ04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｴｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪ, ﾂ02ｨｦ ｨ 0107 ｨ ｨｺ09ｨｦ0907ｨｰ ｨｮ ﾂ06ｨｮ04 ｨｬ0200ｨ 0605 ｨ ｨｦ00ｨｦｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨ ｨｦ0008ｨｴｨｪ ｨｺ ｨ ｨｦ, ｨｬ06ｨｪｨｴｨｰ, ｨ ｨｪｨ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ ｨｮｨｦｨｺ05 02ｨ ｨｦｨｪｨｹｨｬ02ｨｪｨ. 03ｨｺ00ｨｹｨｰ ｨ 08ｨｹ 00ｨ 0201ｨｮｨｦｨｺ05, ﾂ0701ｨｪ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 00ｨ 0001 ﾂｨ 08ｨ 02ｨ ｨｦｨｪｨｹｨｬ02ｨｪｨ, 00ｨ ｨ 0102ｨｪ ｨｬ ｨｪ ｨｪｨ 0209ｨｬ04ｨｪ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｺ09ｨｦ0906ｨｰ ｨｬ02 00ｨ 00ｨｪｨｴｨｮ0005 ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ ｨｮ0805ｨｨ02ｨｦｨ 0004ｨｰ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 0208ｨｦｨｮ0007ｨｬ04ｨｰ, ｨｮ0004ｨｪ ｨｴｨｮ04 ｨ , 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｪｨ ｨｮ 02ｨｦ 0004ｨｪ ｨｺｨ 0005 ｨｬ06ｨｮ07 ｨｹ0907 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705 (0206ｨ ｨｬ06ｨｪ04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ), ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨ 00ｨｪｨｴｨｮ0005 (ｨ ｨｪ ｨｰ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ), ｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨ 0500ｨｪｨｴｨｮ00ｨ ｨｹ 0208ｨｦ ﾂ05ｨｪ0200ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ02 00ｨ ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ, 00ｨ ｨ ｨ ｨｪ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨｨ06ｨｮ02ｨｴｨｪ ｨｨ02ｨｴ090705ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｹ00ｨｦ ｨｦｨｮ ﾂ ｨｪ ｨｺｨ 0005 ｨｬ06ｨｮ07 ｨｹ ｨｦｨ 00ｨｦｨｰ ｨｦ01ｨｦｨｹ ｨｰ ｨｺ05ｨｨ02 ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｰ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ0705 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 07ｨｦ ｨｰ 02ｨｺ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ02 ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨｮｨｴｨｮ ｨｪｨ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨｦｨｮ06ｨｮ02ｨｴｨｪ ｨ ｨｮ00 ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨ ｨｦ ｨ ｨｮ ｨｰ 0206ｨ ｨｬ06ｨｪ04 ｨｰ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ ｨｹ05ｨｴｨｪ 00ｨｴｨｪ 0500ｨｪｨｴｨｮ00ｨｴｨｪ 07 ｨｬ04 ｨｬ ｨｮｨｦｨｬｨｴｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪ ｨｬ02 ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨｬ02 00ｨ ｨｪ07ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ 01ｨｦｨ 00ｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹｨｰ ｨｹ0907ｨｰ ﾂｨ 0807 ｨｮ020505ｨｬｨ. 00ｨ ｨｮｨｦｨｺ05 ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ: (ｨ ) ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ 0004ｨｰ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 08ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ ｨ 0100ｨｹ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ0500ｨ ｨｦ 04 00ｨｦｨｬ07 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ 0807ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ0705 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705, ｨ 08ｨｹ 00ｨｦｨｰ 00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｰ ｨｴｨｪ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ (080907ｨｮ01ｨｦ0709ｨｦｨｮ0006ｨｰ, 08ｨ ｨｪ0002ｨｰ ｨｺｨｦｨｪ0105ｨｪ 0701) ｨｮ04ｨｰ, 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ0500ｨ ｨｦ 04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪｨｹｨｰ 0807ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ0705 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨ ｨｦ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｬｨｹｨｪ ｨ, ｨｺ010908ｨｴｨｰ 0807ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ05 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ05. 00ｨ ｨｮｨｦｨｺ ｨｹｨｨ02ｨｮ04 ｨｮ ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｹ00ｨｦ 04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｮ 0700ｨｦｨｺ0705 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705 ｨｮ ﾂ ｨ ｨｦ 0201ｨｨ050009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨ ｨｬ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｴｨｪ ｨｴｨｪ. (09) ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ 0004ｨｰ ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 08ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ ｨ 0100ｨｹ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ0500ｨ ｨｦ 04 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪｨｹ000400ｨ, ｨｺｨ ｨｨ06ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪｨｹ000400ｨ ｨｰ ｨｪｨ 02ｨｬ02ｨ ｨｪｨｦｨｮ ｨｪｨ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ (ｨｪｨｹｨｮ04ｨｬｨ ), ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨ ｨｦ 04 00ｨｦｨｬ ｨｴｨｪ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ 07 ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ 02ｨｬ02ｨ ｨｪ080307ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ05 (08ｨ ｨｪ0002ｨｰ ｨｺｨｦｨｪ01 05ｨｪ0701). 0409ｨｹｨｺ02ｨｦ00ｨ ｨｦ 00ｨｦｨ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ ｨｬ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 08ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ. (00) ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ 0004ｨｰ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 01ｨｦｨ ｨｺ09ｨｦ00ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 08ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ ｨ 0100ｨｹ, ｨｺｨ 00ｨ 0005ｨｮｨｮ07ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ 07ｨｦ ｨｬ07ｨｪ050102ｨｰ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ0705 ｨｮ02 ｨｺｨ ｨｰ, ｨ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｬ02 00ｨｦｨｰ 00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｰ ｨｬ 0209ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ ｨｰ 07 ｨ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｬ ｨ ｨｪ 06 ﾂ0701ｨｪ 07 ｨｹ ﾂｨｦ ｨｺ050807ｨｦｨ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ05. (01) 08ｨ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ ｨｬ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 08ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ ﾂ0701ｨｪ ｨｦ09ｨ ｨｬ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ05 ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ, ﾂ07ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨ 08 ｨｹ ｨ ｨｪ0008ｨｮ0007ｨｦ- ﾂｨ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ, ｨ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｬ ｨｬ ｨｬ ｨｪ ｨ ｨ ｨｦ ﾂｨ 0807 ｨｮ020505ｨｬｨ ｨ ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ0500ｨ ｨｦ 04 00ｨｦｨｬ07 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ 0807ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ 0705 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705, ｨ 08ｨｹ 00ｨｦｨｰ 00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｰ ｨｴｨｪ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ ｨｮ04ｨｰ, 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ0500ｨ ｨｦ 04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪｨｹｨｰ 0807ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ0705 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨ ｨｦ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｬｨｹｨｪ ｨ, ｨｺ010908ｨｴｨｰ 0807ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ05 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ05. 00ｨ ｨｮｨｦｨｺ ｨｹｨｨ02ｨｮ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｹ00ｨｦ 00ｨ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ05 ｨｮ01ｨｪ010607ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ ｨｹ0304 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ ｨｬ02 ｨｬ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｮ ﾂ06ｨｮ04. Theory of statistical models ｨｦｨｰ ｨｦｨ ｨｺ09ｨｦ00ｨｦｨｺ07 ｨ ｨｪ050501ｨｮ ｨｮ ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｮ04 04ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ Abstract at the end of the article ｨｮｦｰ061 7ｨｪ ｨｪ07ｦﾒ061 7ｨｪ

2 ｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｪｨ 0209ｨｬ04ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705; ﾂ0701ｨｪ 08ｨ ｨｪ0002ｨｰ ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨｪ ｨｮ ｨｦｨ ｨｬｨｹ0902ｨｴｨｮ ｨｰ; ｨｦ 09ｨ ｨｨｨｬｨｹ 0004ｨｪ ｨｪ; ｨｪ ｨｪｨ 0008ｨｪ0701ｨｪ 00ｨｪｨｴｨｮ0006ｨｰ 07ｨｦ ｨｮ01ｨｪｨｦｨｮ0006ｨｮ02ｨｰ ｨ ｨｦ000802ｨｰ 02ｨｬ0205ｨｪｨｦｨｮ04ｨｰ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｪ07ｨｮ07ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ; ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ060907ｨｰ ｨ 08ｨｹ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨｴ0004ｨｬ0500ｨｴｨｪ, ｨｮ00ｨ ｨ 0208ｨｦ ﾂ02ｨｦ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｪｨ 0107ｨｨ0208 ｨ 0805ｨｪ0004ｨｮ04 ｨｬ ｨｬ06ｨｨ ｨｰ 08ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ, ｨｪ07ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ06ｨｨ070107ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ ｨｮ04ｨｰ. 03ｨｦ 09ｨ ｨｮｨｦｨｺ06ｨｰ 0208ｨｦ01ｨｦ060602ｨｦｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｬ06ｨｨ ｨｰ 08ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ ｨ ｨ 09ｨｬｨｹ030200ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ0004ｨｪ ｨｪｨ ｨｮ0007 ﾂ ｨｰ ｨ ｨｰ, 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ: 6ｦ1 01ｨ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ04ｨｨ ｨｦｨｬ07 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ 0807ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ0705 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705 ｨ 08ｨｹ 00ｨｦｨｰ 00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｰ ｨｴｨｪ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ (080907ｨｮ01ｨｦ0709ｨｦｨｮ0006ｨｰ, 08ｨ ｨｪ0002ｨｰ ｨｺｨｦｨｪ0105ｨｪ0701) 6ｦ1 Nｨ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ04ｨｨ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪｨｹｨｰ 0807ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ0705 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨ ｨｦ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｬｨｹｨｪ , 08ｨ ｨｮ08ｨ ｨｪ ｨｴｨｪ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ 6ｦ1 01ｨ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ04ｨｨ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪｨｹｨｰ 0807ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ0705 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ0100 ﾂ09ｨｹｨｪｨｴｨｰ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ05 6ｦ1 01ｨ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ04ｨｨ ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪｨｹ000400ｨ 02ｨｬ0205ｨｪｨｦｨｮ04ｨｰ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705 (ｨｪｨｹｨｮ04ｨｬｨ ), ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨ ｨｦ 04 00ｨｦｨｬ ｨｴｨｪ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ 6ｦ1 01ｨ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ04ｨｨ ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪｨｹ000400ｨ 02ｨｬ0205ｨｪｨｦｨｮ04ｨｰ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ 02ｨｬ02ｨ ｨｪ080307ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ05 6ｦ1 01ｨ ｨｺｨ 00ｨ 00ｨ ｨｪ 07ｨｦ ｨｬ07ｨｪ050102ｨｰ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ ｨｮ02 07ｨｬ050102ｨｰ. 01ｨｦｨ ｨｪｨ 0809ｨ 00ｨｬｨ ｨｦ04ｨｨ0705ｨｪ ｨ ｨｰ 07ｨｦ 0208ｨｦ01ｨｦ060602ｨｦｨｰ, 0008ｨｪ07ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ 01ｨｦ ｨｰ ｨｨ06ｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ 00ｨｦｨ 0007ｨｪ 0009ｨｹ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨ ｨｦ 06ｨｪｨ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨ ｨｦ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨｨ06ｨｮ02ｨｴｨｪ, ｨ ｨｪｨ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ00ｨｦｨｰ ｨｦ01ｨｦｨｹ ｨｰ ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨｰ 07ｨｪ00ｨｹ000400ｨ ｨｰ. 03ｨｦ ｨｨ06ｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｪｨ ｨ ｨｪｨ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦｨｪｨｹｨｬ02ｨｪ ｨｪｨｦｨｺ05 ｨｮ02 06ｨｪｨ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ ｨｺ ｨｪ ｨ 08ｨｹ 0004 ｨｨ02ｨｴ0908ｨ ｨｪ 02ｨｬ0802ｨｦ0908ｨ. 03 ｨｦｨｮ ﾂ0109ｨｦｨｮｨｬｨｹｨｰ ｨｹ00ｨｦ 04 ｨ ｨｦｨ ｨｺ ｨｮ04 ｨｮ ﾂ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ ｨｮｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ ｨｰ ｨ 00ｨｹｨｬ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｬｨｦｨ 0108ｨｹｨｨ02ｨｮ04. 01ｨｦｨ ｨｪｨ 02ｨｺ0209ｨ ｨｮ ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ ｨｹｨｨ02ｨｮ04 ｨ , ｨｨｨ ｨｦ ｨｪｨ 0008ｨｪ02ｨｦ ｨｬｨｦｨ 0208ｨｦ ｨｪ 0108ｨｹｨｨ02ｨｮ04 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｪｨ 0709ｨｦｨｮ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹｨｰ 0009ｨｹ0807ｨｰ 06ｨｺ0209ｨ ｨｮ04ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ ｨｮ01ｨｮ ﾂ0600ｨｦｨｮ04ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ ｨ ｨｦｨ ｨｺ07ｨｰ ｨｮ04ｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｮｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ ｨｰ, ｨ ｨｦ ｨｪｨ 0709ｨｦｨｮ ｨｪｨ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ. 00ｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｮｨｴｨｮ ｨｪｨ ｨｮ05ｨｮ0004ｨｬｨ 0206ｨｦｨｮ06ｨｮ02ｨｴｨｪ, 07ｨｦ ｨｰ 02ｨｺ ｨｪ 0807ｨｮ0700ｨｦｨｺ05 06ｨｪｨ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨｨ06ｨｮ02ｨｴｨｪ ｨｪ07ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ 00ｨｦｨ 00ｨｦｨｰ ｨｦ01ｨｦｨｹ ｨｰ ｨｺ05ｨｨ02 ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｰ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ ｨｦｨ 08ｨ ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ, 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0101ｨｪｨ 00ｨｹ ｨｪｨ ｨｨ0208 ｨｹ00ｨｦ, ｨｮ02 ｨｺ05ｨｨ ｨｬ ﾂ02ｨｦ ｨｮｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ ｨｰ ﾁ, 04 ｨ ｨｦｨ ｨｺ ｨｮ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 09 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ01ｨｦ ｨ ｨｦ ｨ ｨｺ09ｨｦ0906ｨｰ ｨｬ02 ｨｬ08ｨ ｨ 08ｨｹ 00ｨｦｨｰ ｨｦ0902ｨｰ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｰ ｨｮ ﾂ06ｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ, ｨｹ08ｨｴｨｰ 0004ｨｪ: 09=ｨ +09 ﾁ. 0700ｨ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ ﾂ02ｨｦ ｨｰ ｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｦｨｺｨ ｨｪｨｹ000400ｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0101ｨｪｨ ｨｹ ｨｬ02 ｨ ｨｺ ｨｦｨ 00ｨｴｨｪ 00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｪ 0004ｨｰ 09, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 00ｨｪｨｴｨｮ0006ｨｰ 07ｨｦ 00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ ﾁ. 0700ｨ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ ﾂ02ｨｦ ｨｪ ｨｬｨｦｨｪｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｮ ﾂ06ｨｮ04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｴｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪ, ﾂ02ｨｦ ｨ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ07 06ｨｺ0209ｨ ｨｮ04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨ ｨｦ00ｨｦｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨ ｨｦ0008ｨｴｨｪ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ, ｨｬ06ｨｪｨｴｨｰ, 00ｨ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ ｨ ｨｪｨ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ ｨｮｨｦｨｺ05 02ｨ ｨｦｨｪｨｹｨｬ02ｨｪｨ. 03ｨｺ00ｨｹｨｰ ｨ 08ｨｹ 00ｨ 0201ｨｮｨｦｨｺ05, ﾂ0701ｨｪ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 00ｨ 0001 ﾂｨ 08ｨ 02ｨ ｨｦｨｪｨｹｨｬ02ｨｪｨ, 00ｨ ｨ 0102ｨｪ ｨｬ ｨｪｨ 0209ｨｬ04ｨｪ ｨｪ ｨｬ ｨｰ 00ｨｪｨｴｨｮ000705ｨｰ 0201ｨｮｨｦｨｺ0705ｨｰ ｨｪｨｹｨｬ0701ｨｰ. 05 ｨ ｨｦｨ ｨｺ ｨｮ04 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨ 00ｨｹｨｬｨｴｨｪ 0102ｨｪ ｨｬ ｨｪｨ ｨｮ01ｨｦ0709ｨｦｨｮ ｨ ｨｪ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 00ｨｪｨｴｨｮ00ｨｹ ｨｬｨｹｨｪ ｨｮｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ ｨｰ ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 02ｨｪ0102 ﾂ07ｨｬ06ｨｪｨｴｨｰ ｨｪｨ ｨｬ04 ｨｮ ﾂ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ ｨｮｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ ｨｰ ｨｬ0802ｨｦ0908ｨ ﾂｨｪ02ｨｦ ｨｹ00ｨｦ ﾂ02ｨｦ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｨ07ｨｰ ｨｴｨｪ 08ｨ 09ｨ 00ｨｹｨｪ00ｨｴｨｪ, 02ｨｺ00ｨｹｨｰ ｨｮｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｰ, 07ｨｦ ｨｦ 02ｨｪ0102 ﾂ07ｨｬ06ｨｪｨｴｨｰ ｨｪｨ 0208ｨｦ ｨｪ ｨｮ ｨｦｨ ｨｬｨｹ0902ｨｴｨｮ ｨｰ ｨ ｨｦｨ ｨｺ07ｨｰ ｨｮ04ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨ 08ｨｹ ｨｰ ｨｰ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0500ｨｪｨｴｨｮ0007ｨｦ 07 ｨｬ04 ｨｬ ｨｮｨｦｨｬ07ｨｦ, ｨ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0001 ﾂｨ 0807ｨｦ 08ｨ ｨｪ0002ｨｰ ｨ ｨ ｨｪ 00ｨｴｨｪ 08ｨ 09ｨ 00ｨｹｨｪ00ｨｴｨｪ 0102ｨｪ 0208ｨｦ ｨｦ 0007ｨｪ ｨｮ01ｨｦ0709ｨｦｨｮｨｬｨｹ 0004ｨｰ ｨ ｨｦｨ ｨｺ07ｨｰ ｨｮ04ｨｰ ｨｮ02 06ｨｪｨ ｨｬ07, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 00ｨｪｨｴｨｮ00ｨｹ ｨｬｨｹｨｪ ｨｮｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ ｨｰ ｨｴ ｨ 08ｨｹ ｨ ｨｪ ｨ 0101ｨｪｨ ｨｬ08ｨ, ｨｮ0805ｨｨ02ｨｦｨ 0004ｨｰ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 0208ｨｦｨｮ0007ｨｬ04ｨｰ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｪｨ ｨｮ02ｨｦ 0004ｨｪ ｨｺｨ 0005 ｨｬ06ｨｮ07 ｨｹ0907 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ 09, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 00ｨｪｨｴｨｮ0006ｨｰ 07ｨｦ 00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ ﾁ ｨｹ 0208ｨｦ ﾂ05ｨｪ0200ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ ｨｬｨｦ ｨ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ ｨｦ00ｨｬ0500ｨｴｨｪ, ｨｮ00ｨ ｨ ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨ ｨｮ04 00ｨｴｨｪ 0001 ﾂｨ 08ｨｴｨｪ 08ｨ 09ｨ 00ｨｹｨｪ00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｰ ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨｨ06ｨｮ02ｨｴｨｪ, ｨｨ02ｨｴ090705ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｹ00ｨｦ ｨｦｨｮ ﾂ050701ｨｪ ｨｺｨ 0005 ｨｬ06ｨｮ07 ｨｹ ｨｦｨ 00ｨｦｨｰ ｨｦ01ｨｦｨｹ ｨｰ ｨｺ05ｨｨ02 ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｰ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ0705 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 07ｨｦ ｨｰ 02ｨｺ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ02 ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｮｨｴｨｮ ｨｪｨ ｨｮ05ｨｮ0004ｨｬｨ 0206ｨｦｨｮ06ｨｮ02ｨｴｨｪ ｨ ｨｮ ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ, 08. ﾂ. ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ ｨ ｨｦｨ ｨｺ07ｨｰ ｨｮ04ｨｰ 09 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｮｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｰ ﾁ, 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0007: 09=ｨ +09 ﾁ+02 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 07ｨｪ07ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ ｨ 0805ｨｹ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺｨｹ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ.

3 A ｨｪ07ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ 0206ｨ ｨｬ06ｨｪ ｨｬ04ｨｪ0201ｨｹｨｬ02ｨｪ04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ﾁ 07ｨｪ07ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ ｨ ｨｪ ｨｬ04ｨｪ020100ｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｮ01ｨｦ0709ｨｦｨｮ0007ｨｰ 07 08ｨ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｰ ｨｺｨｦｨｪ0105ｨｪ ｨｪ07ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ 01ｨｦｨ 00ｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹｨｰ ｨｹ0907ｨｰ ﾂｨ 0807 ｨｮ020505ｨｬｨ ﾂｨ 08ｨ ｨ 08ｨｹｨｺ05ｨｦｨｮ04 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｬ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｮ01ｨｪ02ｨｺ ｨ ｨｦ ｨ ｨｮ04 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｨ0701ｨｰ 0500ｨｪｨｴｨｮ00ｨｴｨｪ 07 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ04 ｨｬ ｨｮｨｦｨｬｨｴｨｪ 08ｨ 09ｨ 00ｨｹｨｪ00ｨｴｨｪ, 07ｨｦ ｨｦ 0208ｨｦ ｨｪ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ01ｨｪ01ｨｦｨ ｨｬ ｨｪ0701ｨｪ 0004ｨｪ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0001 ﾂｨ 08ｨ 07 ｨｮ0007 ﾂｨ ｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｬ0200ｨ , ｨ 0107 ｨ ｨｺ ｨｨ ｨｪｨ ｨｪｨｹｨｬ07 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪｨｹ000400ｨ ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｦ06 ﾂ02ｨｦ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 00ｨ 02ｨｪ0102 ﾂｨｹｨｬ02ｨｪｨ ｨｮ020505ｨｬｨ 00ｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 00ｨ 0505ｨｨ ｨｪ07ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｺｨ ｨｦｨ 01ｨｦｨｺｨ ｨｮ08ｨ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｬ ｨｮ02ｨｴｨｪ ﾂ ｨｰ ｨ ｨｰ, ｨｺ ｨｦ ｨｮ01ｨｪ07ｨｨｨｴｨｰ ｨｦ ｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｺ07ｨｦｨｪｨｴｨｪｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｮ01ｨｬ080209ｨｦ ｨｴｨｪ ｨ 00ｨｹｨｬｨｴｨｪ, ｨ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨ ｨｮ0005ｨｨｨｬ ｨ ｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 09 07ｨｪ07ｨｬ050307ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ 08ｨ 0905ｨｬ ｨｦ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ ｨ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 07 ｨｮ00ｨ ｨｨ0209ｨｹｨｰ ｨｹ0907ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 07 ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨｮ0007ｨｰ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ. 03ｨｦ 08ｨ 0905ｨｬ ｨｦ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ 0102ｨｪ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0101ｨｪｨ 00ｨｹ ｨｪｨ ｨｦｨｮ000705ｨｪ, ｨ ｨｬ ｨｪｨ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ04ｨｨ0705ｨｪ ｨｬ02 ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｰ ｨｬ02ｨｨｨｹ010701ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ02 ｨｬ ｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ ｨｪ07ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ02 06ｨｪｨ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ0705, ｨｺｨ 00 ｯ 07ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｪ07ｨｬ08ｨ 07ｨｪ07ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬｨ (ｨｮ0004ｨｪ 0809ｨ 00ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ000400ｨ, ｨｬｨ 0102ｨｪ ﾂ02ｨｦ, 00ｨｦｨ ｨｪ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0101ｨｪｨ ｨｮ ｨｮ01ｨｪｨｹ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ ｨｪｨ 06 ﾂ02ｨｦ 00ｨ ｨ ｨｺ09ｨｦ0907 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ0705). 03ｨｦ ｨｮ04ｨｬｨ ｨｪ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ ｨｰ ｨｬ06ｨｨ070107ｨｦ 02ｨｺ0008ｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ ｨｦ00ｨｬ0500ｨｴｨｪ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ: 6ｦ1 05 ｨｬ06ｨｨ070107ｨｰ 00ｨｴｨｪ 0205ｨ ﾂ08ｨｮ00ｨｴｨｪ ｨ 0006ｨｪｨｴｨｪ 6ｦ1 05 ｨｬ06ｨｨ070107ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ ｨｬ020008ｨｮ0004ｨｰ 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪ070205ｨｪ02ｨｦｨ ｨｰ. 08ｨ 09ｨ ｨｮｨｦｨｺ05 ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ ﾂ0904ｨｮｨｦｨｬ070807ｨｦ0705ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ00ｨｦｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｰ ｨｮ0007 ﾂ ｨｰ ｨ ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 07ｨｦ 09ｨ ｨｮｨｦｨｺ06ｨｰ ｨｨ06ｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ ｨｰ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ 0004ｨｰ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 08ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ (linear regression), 0004ｨｰ ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 08ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ ｨ 09ｨｦｨｨｨｬｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ ｨｮ04ｨｰ (logistic regression), 0004ｨｰ 01ｨｦｨ ｨｺ09ｨｦ00ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ ｨ ｨｪ050501ｨｮ04ｨｰ (discriminant analysis) ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 00ｨ ｨｬ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ (non-linear models) O ( ) 05 ｨｮ01ｨｪ04ｨｨ06ｨｮ ｨｹｨｨ02ｨｮ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｹ00ｨｦ ｨ ｨｮ01ｨｪ02- ﾂ ﾂｨ 08ｨ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨ ｨｺ ｨｨ0208 ｨｺｨ ｨｪ07ｨｪｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｺｨ 00ｨ ｨｪ07ｨｬ07, 00ｨｦｨ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺｨｹｨｰ ｨｮ01ｨｪ0101ｨ ｨｮｨｬｨｹｨｰ 0004ｨｰ 0001 ﾂｨ 08ｨ ｨｰ ｨ 08ｨｹｨｺ05ｨｦｨｮ04ｨｰ 02, 00ｨｦｨ 0004ｨｪ ｨ ｨｮ01ｨｪ07ｨｨｨｴｨｰ 0008ｨｪ0200ｨ ｨｦ ｨｹｨｨ02ｨｮ04 ｨｹ00ｨｦ ｨ ｨｺ ｨｨ ｨｪ ｨｺｨ ｨｪ07ｨｪｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｺｨ 00ｨ ｨｪ07ｨｬ07 ｨｬ02 ｨｬ06ｨｮ07 ｨｬ040106ｨｪ ｨｴ ｨ 08ｨｹ 0004ｨｪ ｨ 08ｨ 0108ｨｹｨｨ02ｨｮ04, ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ 08ｨ 0809ｨｪ02ｨｦ 0004ｨｪ ｨｦｨｮ070105ｨｪｨ ｨｬ04 ｨｬ : 03(09)= ﾁ ﾁ ｨｺ ﾁ ｨｺ ｨｹ (09) 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 04 ｨ ｨｪｨ ｨｬ02ｨｪｨｹｨｬ02ｨｪ04 00ｨｦｨｬ ｨｰ 09 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨ 00ｨ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ ｨｬ06ｨｮ ｨｰ 09 ｨｮ0007ｨｪ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬｨｹ. 0302ｨ 09ｨｬｨｹ0307ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｰ 0004 ｨｬ06ｨｨ ｨ ﾂ08ｨｮ00ｨｴｨｪ ｨ 0006ｨｪｨｴｨｪ ｨｬ06ｨｨ ｨｬ020008ｨｮ0004ｨｰ 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪ070205ｨｪ02ｨｦｨ ｨｰ ｨｮ00ｨｦｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ, 05ｨ ｨｬ0905ｨｪ0200ｨ ｨｦ 02ｨｺ0008ｨｬ04ｨｮ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｰ: Y=b 0 +b 1 ﾁ 1 +b 2 ﾁ b ｨｺ ﾁ ｨｺ +e ｨｹ ｨ b 0, b 1, b 2,..., b ｨｺ ｨ ｨｪ ｨｺｨ ｨｰ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ07ｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ 00ｨｴｨｪ 08ｨ 09ｨ ｨｬ060009ｨｴｨｪ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ 00 0, 00 1, 00 2,..., 00 ｨｺ, ｨｪ07ｨｬ050307ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨｮ0006ｨｰ ｨｨ02 b j, i=1, 2,...K ﾂｨｪ02ｨｦ 0004ｨｪ ｨｺｨ 0005 ｨｬ06ｨｮ07 ｨｹ0907 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ 09 ｨｮ ｨｬｨ, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ 04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ﾁ j ｨ ｨｨ0208 ｨｺｨ 0005 ｨｬ08ｨ ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 07ｨｦ 0108ｨｹ0507ｨｦ0802ｨｰ ｨ ｨｪ ｨｰ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ 08ｨ 09ｨ ｨｬ06ｨｪ0701ｨｪ ｨｮ00ｨ ｨｨ020906ｨｰ ｨｦ ｨｰ ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705ｨｰ ﾂ0701ｨｰ, ﾂ0200ｨ ｨｦ 04 ｨ 06ｨｦ0708ｨｦｨｮ0008ｨ 0004ｨｰ 02ｨｺ0008ｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ ｨｦｨｺｨ ｨｪｨｹ000400ｨ ｨｰ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ ｨｪｨ 0209ｨｬ04ｨｪ020502ｨｦ 0004 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｹ000400ｨ 0004ｨｰ 09 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｪｨ ﾂ0904ｨｮｨｦｨｬ070807ｨｦ020800ｨ ｨｦ 00ｨｦｨ ｨｦｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｮｨｺ0200ｨ ｨｦ 01ｨｦ05ｨｮ0004ｨｬｨ 02ｨｬ08ｨｦｨｮ0007ｨｮ05ｨｪ04ｨｰ 00ｨｦｨ ｨｺ05ｨｨ02 08ｨ 0905ｨｬ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ, 01ｨｦ05ｨｮ0004ｨｬｨ 02ｨｬ08ｨｦｨｮ0007ｨｮ05ｨｪ04ｨｰ 00ｨｦｨ 00ｨｦｨｰ 01ｨｦ ｨｰ ｨｹｨｬ02ｨｪ02ｨｰ 00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ 0206ｨ ｨｬ06ｨｪ04ｨｰ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ, ｨｺｨ ｨｨ06ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 01ｨｦ05ｨｮ0004ｨｬｨ 02ｨｬ08ｨｦｨｮ0007ｨｮ05ｨｪ04ｨｰ 00ｨｦｨ 00ｨｦｨｰ 01ｨｦ ｨｰ ｨｹｨｬ02ｨｪ02ｨｰ ｨｬ06ｨｮ02ｨｰ 00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ 0206ｨ ｨｬ06ｨｪ04ｨｰ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ, ｨｺ0500ｨｴ ｨ 08ｨｹ ｨｮ01ｨｪｨｨ07ｨｺ02ｨｰ ｨｮ ﾂ0200ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ ｨ ｨｦｨｹ000400ｨ ｨｰ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺｨｹ000400ｨ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｦ00ｨｬ0500ｨｴｨｪ ｨ ｨｪｨ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺｨｹ000400ｨ 00ｨｴｨｪ 08ｨ 09ｨ ｨｬ060009ｨｴｨｪ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｹ ﾂｨｦ ｨｮ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺｨｹ000400ｨ 00ｨｴｨｪ 0209ｨｬ04ｨｪ020100ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｪ 06ｨｪｨｪ07ｨｦｨ, ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ : 09= ﾁ+00 2 ﾁ ｨｺ ﾁ ｨｺ ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ0500ｨ ｨｦ ｨｴｨｰ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺｨｹ, ｨ ｨｪ 0002ｨｨ0208 ﾁ= ﾁ 1, ﾁ 2 = ﾁ 2,..., ﾁ ｨｺ = ﾁ ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 08ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0004ｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｰ: 09= ﾁ ﾁ ｨｺ ﾁ ｨｺ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｬ02 00ｨｦｨｰ ｨｨ06ｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ ｨｪ07ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ 00ｨｦｨ ｨｦｨ 00ｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ ｨｹ0907, ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ 01ｨｦ ｨ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ 08ｨ 05ｨｦｨｪ0109ｨｹｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0004ｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｰ: P=exp( ﾁ ﾁ ｨｺ ﾁ ｨｺ +02)/ [1+exp( ﾁ ﾁ ｨｺ ﾁ ｨｺ )] ｨｹ exp(ｨ ) 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 07 ｨ 09ｨｦｨｨｨｬｨｹｨｰ 2, ｨｴｨｬ06ｨｪ07ｨｰ ｨｮ ｨｪｨ ｨｬ04 ｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ P 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ07ｨｮ00ｨｹ ｨｬ ｨｬ02ｨ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｦ

4 ｨｪｨ ｨｮ0100ｨｺ02ｨｺ09ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｪ07 ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ (ｨｪｨｹｨｮ04ｨｬｨ ) ｨｮ0007ｨｪ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬｨｹ, ｨ P 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 04 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪｨｹ000400ｨ 0208ｨｦ ｨｰ ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨｰ ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｰ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ0705 ｨｬ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ ｨ 08ｨｹ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｮ ﾂ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｮｨｬｨｹ, ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ 08ｨ 0809ｨｪ02ｨｦ 0004 ｨｬ : 09= ﾁ ﾁ ｨｺ ﾁ ｨｺ +u ｨｹ =Ln [P/(1-P)] 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｦｨｨｨｬ07ｨｰ (odds) 0004ｨｰ P, ｨ ｨｹ ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ01ｨｬ ｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪ ｨｴｨｪ, 0004ｨｰ 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪｨｹ000400ｨ ｨｰ P ｨｪｨ 02ｨｬ02ｨ ｨｪ080302ｨｦ ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ, ｨｰ 0004ｨｪ 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪｨｹ000400ｨ 1-P ｨｪｨ ｨｬ04ｨｪ ｨｬ02ｨ ｨｪ080302ｨｦ, ｨｺｨ ｨｦ u=ln ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｮｨｦｨｺｨｹｨｰ ｨｦｨｨｨｬ07ｨｰ (logarithus natural) ｨｦｨ 00ｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｺ0705 ｨｹ ｨ 09ｨｬｨｹ0307ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｰ 0004 ｨｬ06ｨｨ ｨｬ020008ｨｮ0004ｨｰ 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪ070205ｨｪ02ｨｦｨ ｨｰ ｨｮ00ｨ ｨｮ0007ｨｦ ﾂ0208ｨ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ, 05ｨ ｨｬ0905ｨｪ0200ｨ ｨｦ 02ｨｺ0008ｨｬ04ｨｮ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｰ: Y=b 0 +b 1 ﾁ 1 +b 2 ﾁ b ｨｺ ﾁ ｨｺ ｨｹ ｨ b 0, b 1, b 2,..., b ｨｺ ｨ ｨｪ ｨｺｨ ｨｰ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ07ｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨｮ0006ｨｪ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ 00 0, 00 1, 00 2,..., 00 ｨｺ. 0805ｨｨ02 b j ｨｬ ｨｦ 0004ｨｪ ｨｺｨ 0005 ｨｬ06ｨｮ07 ｨｹ0907 ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨ 0908ｨｨｨｬ ｨｹ ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ01ｨｬ ｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪ ｨｴｨｪ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ ｨｬｨ, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ 04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ﾁ j ｨ ｨｨ0208 ｨｺｨ 0005 ｨｬ08ｨ ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 07ｨｦ 0108ｨｹ0507ｨｦ0802ｨｰ ｨ ｨｪ ｨｰ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ 08ｨ 09ｨ ｨｬ06ｨｪ0701ｨｪ ｨｮ00ｨ ｨｨ020906ｨｰ. 09ｨｪ ｨ ｨｪ00ｨｦｨｺｨ 00ｨ ｨｮ00ｨ ｨｨ0705ｨｪ ｨｮ0100ｨｺ02ｨｺ09ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｪ02ｨｰ 00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｰ 00ｨｴｨｪ 0209ｨｬ04ｨｪ020100ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪ ｨｮ0004ｨｪ 02ｨｺ0008ｨｬ04ｨｮ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ, 05ｨ ｨｬ0905ｨｪ0200ｨ ｨｦ 04 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪｨｹ000400ｨ 02ｨｬ0205ｨｪｨｦｨｮ04ｨｰ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｪ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｰ ｨｮ01ｨｦ0709ｨｦｨｮ0007ｨｰ ﾁi 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｦｨｬ07ｨｰ, ｨｬ02 ﾁi=1 ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ ﾂ02ｨｦ ｨｮ0004 ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ 06ｨｪｨ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ (08ｨ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｰ ｨｺｨｦｨｪ0105ｨｪ0701) ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ02 ﾁi=0 ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ 0102ｨｪ ﾂ02ｨｦ, 04 00ｨｦｨｬ07 exp(b j ) ｨ ｨｺ0008ｨｬ04ｨｮ ｨｮ ﾂ0200ｨｦｨｺ ｨｹ OR 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ01ｨｬ ｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪ ｨｴｨｪ, ｨｰ ｨ ｨｺ0008ｨｬ04ｨｮ ｨｮ ﾂ0200ｨｦｨｺ0705 ｨｺｨｦｨｪ0105ｨｪ0701 RR ｨｪｨ 02ｨｬ02ｨ ｨｪｨｦｨｮ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ (ｨｪｨｹｨｮ04ｨｬｨ ), ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ ｨｮ0004 ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ﾂ02ｨｦ 07 ｨｬ ｨｬ02ｨｪ07ｨｰ 08ｨ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ0004ｨｪ ｨｴｨｮ ﾂｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ000409ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ0805ｨｪｨｦ ｨｦ ｨｰ ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ0705ｨｰ ﾂ0701ｨｰ, ﾂ0200ｨ ｨｦ 04 ｨ 06ｨｦ0708ｨｦｨｮ0008ｨ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨｮ0006ｨｪ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ, ｨｮｨｺ0200ｨ ｨｦ 01ｨｦ05ｨｮ0004ｨｬｨ 02ｨｬ08ｨｦｨｮ0007ｨｮ05ｨｪ04ｨｰ 00ｨｦｨ ｨｺ05ｨｨ02 08ｨ 0905ｨｬ ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 01ｨｦ05ｨｮ0004ｨｬｨ 02ｨｬ08ｨｦｨｮ0007ｨｮ05ｨｪ04ｨｰ 00ｨｦｨ ｨｺ05ｨｨ02 ｨｮ ﾂ0200ｨｦｨｺｨｹ 05ｨｹ0007 ｨｮ01ｨｬ ｨｴｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ 08ｨｦｨｨｨ ｨｪ ｨｴｨｪ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ0705, ｨｺ0500ｨｴ ｨ 08ｨｹ ｨｮ01ｨｪｨｨ07ｨｺ02ｨｰ ｨｮ ﾂ0200ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ ｨ ｨｦｨｹ000400ｨ ｨｰ ｨｬ06ｨｨ ｨ ｨｬｨｦ ｨ ｨｦ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｪｨｹｨｪｨ ｨｰ, ｨｬ ｨｪ ｨｬ ｨｪｨ ｨｺｨ 00ｨ 00ｨ ﾂｨｨ0208 ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ0705 ｨｮ02 ｨｬｨｦｨ 07ｨｬ0501ｨ ｨ 08ｨｹ ｨｬ050102ｨｰ. 0308ｨｦ ｨ ｨｦ 06ｨｪｨ ｨｮ ﾂ0200ｨｦｨｺ05 ｨｬ ｨｮ05ｨｪ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ0705 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ02 00ｨｦｨｰ 00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｰ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪ ﾁ 1, ﾁ 2... ﾁ ｨｺ ｨ ｨｦ ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨｮ ｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｰ: 09=00 1 ﾁ ﾁ ｨｺ ﾁ ｨｺ ｨ 07ｨｪ07ｨｬ ｨ ｨｦ 01ｨｦｨ ｨｺ09ｨｦ00ｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨｮ04. 03ｨｦ ｨｮ01ｨｦ0709ｨｦｨｮ0006ｨｰ ﾁ 1, ﾁ 2... ﾁ ｨｺ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0101ｨｪｨ 00ｨｹ ｨｪｨ 0208ｨｦ ｨｪ ｨｮ00ｨ 01ｨｦｨ ｨｺ05, ｨ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｬ ｨｪ 0006ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｮ ｨｰ ｨｮ01ｨｪ02ｨｦｨｮ ｨｰ ｨｰ ｨｮ ｨｦ05ｨｺ09ｨｦｨｮ ｨｰ ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｰ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｬ ｨｪ 00ｨｦｨｬ ｨｺ ｨｦ 00ｨｦｨ 0004ｨｪ 09, 04 ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ0705 ｨｺｨ 00ｨ 0005ｨｮｨｮ0200ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ02 ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨ 08ｨｹ 00ｨｦｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｰ. 0805ｨｨ02 ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨｮ0007ｨｰ Bi 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ0502ｨｦ ｨｮｨｹ 0004ｨｰ ｨｮ01ｨｬｨｬ ﾂ07ｨｰ 0004ｨｰ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ ﾁi ｨｮ ｨｦ05ｨｺ09ｨｦｨｮ ｨｰ ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ ｨｰ ｨｨ01ｨｮｨｬ0705, ｨｹ00ｨ ｨｪ 04 ｨｬ0200ｨ ﾁi ｨ ｨｨ0208 ｨｺｨ 0005 ｨｬ08ｨ ｨｬ07ｨｪ0501ｨ, 02ｨｪ06 07ｨｦ 0108ｨｹ0507ｨｦ0802ｨｰ 0102ｨｪ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｨ0705ｨｪ. 0908ｨｹ ｨｨ02ｨｴ090400ｨｦｨｺ , 07ｨｦ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｰ ﾁ 1, ﾁ 2... ﾁ ｨｺ ｨｦ ｨｪｨ ｨ ｨｺ ｨｨ0705ｨｪ ｨｬｨｦｨ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｪ07ｨｪｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｺｨ 00ｨ ｨｪ07ｨｬ07, ｨｬ02 01ｨｦｨ ｨｺ01ｨｬ05ｨｪｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ01ｨｪ01ｨｦｨ ｨｺ01ｨｬ05ｨｪｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ ｨ ｨｪ0008ｨｮ0007ｨｦ ﾂｨ 08ｨｮ02ｨｰ ｨｮ00ｨｦｨｰ ｨｬ050102ｨｰ, 0108ｨｹｨｨ02ｨｮ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0101ｨｪｨ 00ｨｹ ｨｪｨ 08ｨ 09ｨ 09ｨｦ ｨ ｨｦ 0709ｨｦｨ ｨｺ ｨｬ06ｨｨ ｨｰ 01ｨｦｨ ｨｺ09ｨｦ00ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｰ ｨ ｨｪ050501ｨｮ04ｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｪｨ 0008ｨｪ02ｨｦ 01ｨｦ0500ｨｪｨｴｨｮ04 00ｨｦｨ 0004ｨｪ 0508ｨ ｨｹ ﾂｨｦ 02ｨｪｨｹｨｰ ｨｪ07ｨｮ07ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ, ｨｬ06ｨｮｨｴ 0004ｨｰ ｨ ｨｮ04ｨｰ 01ｨｦｨ 02ｨｹ09ｨｴｨｪ 08ｨ 09ｨ 00ｨｹｨｪ00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｺｨｦｨｪ0105ｨｪ ﾂ0701ｨｪ ｨｦ09ｨ ｨｮ ｨｨ07ｨｰ ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ05, ｨｬ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ, 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｴｨｪ 04 02ｨｺ0008ｨｬ04ｨｮ ｨｪｨ ｨｦ ｨ 08ｨｹ ｨｮ ﾂ0200ｨｦｨｺ05 ｨ ｨｴｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨ 09ｨｺ ｨｮｨｺ070504, ｨ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｬ ｨ ｨｪ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0101ｨｪｨ 00ｨｹ 07 ｨｹ ﾂｨｦ ｨｪｨ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ04ｨｨ0705ｨｪ ｨｴｨｰ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ05. 08ｨ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ 00ｨ ｨ 0102ｨｪ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0101ｨｪｨ 00ｨｹ ｨｪｨ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ04ｨｨ0705ｨｪ ｨｴｨｰ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ05, 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ01ｨｪ07ｨｨｨｴｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｮ020000ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ06ｨｰ ｨｬ02ｨｨｨｹ010701ｨｰ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ02 ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨｮ04 ｨｬ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ07 06ｨｺ0209ｨ ｨｮ ｨｦｨ 00ｨ 09ｨ ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｺ0705 ｨｹ ｨｦ07 ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺｨｹ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ ｨｬ ｨｪｨ ｨｬ0200ｨ 0009ｨ ｨｮ02 01ｨｦｨ ｨｦｨｺ05 ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ, ｨ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｬ ｨｬｨ ｨｨ04ｨｬｨ 00ｨｦｨｺ07 06ｨｺ0209ｨ ｨｮ ﾂｨ ｨｮ020505ｨｬｨ 0007ｨｰ. 0700ｨ ｨｦｨｮｨｮｨｹ000209ｨ ｨｬ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ ｨｬｨ 00ｨ 00ｨ ｨ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ06ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ, 0102ｨｪ 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ 0101ｨｪｨ ｨｬ04ｨｪ0208ｨ 0004ｨｰ 02ｨｺ0008ｨｬ04ｨｮ04ｨｰ 00ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ01ｨｪ ｨｮ0006ｨｪ ｨｰ. 00ｨ ｨｮｨｦｨｺ06ｨｰ ｨｬ ｨｰ ｨｬ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ06ｨｪ ｨｦ00ｨｬ0500ｨｴｨｪ, 00ｨ ｨ ｨｬ0200ｨ ｨｪ00ｨ ｨｦ ｨｮ ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺ05, 0208ｨｪｨ ｨｦ: 6ｦ = ﾁ/( ﾁ ﾁ ｨｺ ﾁｨｺ+02). 03ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ0500ｨ ｨｦ ｨｴｨｰ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺｨｹ, ｨ ｨｪ ｨ ｨｪ00ｨｦｨｮ0009ｨ ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 0002ｨｨ *= ﾁ/09

5 A ｦ =00 0 ﾁ ﾁ ﾁ ｨｺ 00 ｨｺ 02 09ｨｪ ｨ 09ｨｦｨｨｨｬ04ｨｨ0705ｨｪ 00ｨ ｨｬ , 08ｨ 0809ｨｪ02ｨｦ 0004 ｨｬ : ｨｹ *=LnY, X 1 *=LnX 1, X 2 *=LnX 2,..., X k *=LnX k, u=ln02 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ 02ｨｺ00ｨｦｨｬ0500ｨ ｨｦ ｨｴｨｰ 0009ｨ ｨｬｨｬｨｦｨｺｨｹ 0108ｨｹ0102ｨｦ00ｨｬｨ. 09*= ﾁ* ﾁ* ｨｺ ﾁ* ｨｺ +u ABSTRACT... Theory of statistical models T. KATOSTARAS Faculty of Nursing, University of Athens, Athens, Greece Archives of Hellenic Medicine 2003, 20(5):526ｨC531 The application of the theory of the statistical models in the health field attempts to give answers to several important problems, one of which is that of the causes leading to the appearance of an illness. For this aim to be fulfilled, several assumptions are made about the properties of population units. In order to express quantitatively the group of these assumptions, a mathematical equation or a group of equations is defined, which is called a mathematical model. This model is used to express the mode by which a feature of the population units changes, when other specific features vary. Mathematical models specify a deterministic relation between their variables, an exact relationship between cause and outcome and consequently refer to natural phenomena. Apart from the natural, there are also incidental phenomena, which cannot be fully explained by the known mathematical models. The effort, then, of mathematics is concentrated on explaining the average variation of a feature (dependent variable), when other known (independent variables) and unknown features change. This is achieved by the use of statistical models. These models constitute a group of assumptions about the properties of the population units, which are considered to be true on average and are expressed through an equation or a group of equations. With statistical models the effects of the unknown and immeasurable variables on the dependent variable are co-examined, with the use of a variable that is called random error. The linear regression model: With the use of this model, the value of a quantitative feature is estimated through the values of the other features (determinants, risk factors). The variation of a quantitative characteristic can also be estimated, when only one or more of the other quantitative characteristics vary. A fundamental assumption of the model is that the variation of the quantitative characteristic is linearly related to the variation of the other characteristics. The logistic regression model: With this model, the likelihood and its variation can be estimated for a characteristic (illness) to show up, when the values of other characteristics change or when other characteristics show up (risk factors). This is a non-linear model. The discriminant analysis model: With this model, the population units are classified into categories, with the classification depending on the value of some of their characteristics or on the existence of certain features. The non-linear regression models: There are countless non-linear statistical models, which originate from respective mathematical models, depending on the form of the random error. With the use of these, the value of a quantitative characteristic is estimated, through the values of other characteristics. The variation of a quantitative characteristic can also be estimated when one or more, mainly quantitative, characteristics change. A fundamental assumption is that the changing characteristics relate to the characteristic concerned with a non-linear relationship.... Key words: Dependence, Discriminant analysis, Logistic regression, Regression, Statistical model 00ｨｦ0905ｨｦ070009ｨ 0208ｨ 1. GREENLAND S. Introduction to regression model. In: Rothmans KJ, Greenland S (eds) Modern Epidemiology. Lippincott-Raven, Philadelphia, 1998:319ｨC HOSMER D, LEMESHOW S. Applied logistic regression. Wiley, New York, PAGANO M, GAUVREAU K. Principles of Biostatistics. Duxbury Press, An International Thomson Publ Co, Boston, ｨｴ090400ｨｦｨｺ07 07ｨｦｨｺ07ｨｪ07ｨｬ ｨ. 08ｨｹｨｬ07ｨｰ ｨｺ01ｨｹｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ 08ｨ ｨｬ080209ｨｹ ｨｰ, 09ｨｨ07ｨｪｨ, 1985

6 ｨｦｨｮｨ 00ｨｴ0007 ｨｮ0004 ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ07. 00ｨｺ0107ｨｮ04 ｨｦ , 09ｨｨ07ｨｪｨ, , ｨｦ07ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ07 ｨｺｨ ｨｦ ｨｬ02ｨｨ ｨ ｨｪｨ. 03ｨｺ01ｨｹｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ ｨ, 09ｨｨ07ｨｪｨ, ｨｪｨｪ07ｨｦｨ ｨｹ ｨｴｨｪ ｨｮ0004ｨｪ ｨ ｨｦ00ｨｦ ｨｦｨｺ ｨｪｨ ﾂ ｨｪ 07ｨ , 14:373ｨC ｨ -0208ｨｦ0104ｨｬｨｦ ｨ ｨ 09ｨｬ07ｨｮｨｬ06ｨｪ04 ｨｦｨ 0009ｨｦｨｺ ｨｪｨ. 03ｨｺ01ｨｹｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ , 09ｨｨ07ｨｪｨ, ﾁ , , ｨｦ07ｨｮ00ｨ 00ｨｦｨｮ00ｨｦｨｺ ｨｦｨｮ0004ｨｬ07ｨｪｨｦｨｺ06ｨｰ 03ｨｺ01ｨｹｨｮ02ｨｦｨｰ 00ｨ 0908ｨ ｨ 09ｨｦｨｮｨｦ05ｨｪ0701, 09ｨｨ07ｨｪｨ, 2000 Corresponding author: T. Katostaras, 123 Papadiamantopoulou street, GR Athens, Greece