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1 CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE OF COAL MINING INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA Supriatna Suhala Executive Director, Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE OF COAL MINING INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia - APBI (Indonesian Coal Mining Association - ICMA) By Supriatna Suhala Executive Director of Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) Presented at Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008 Japan Coal Energy Centre (JCOAL) Tokyo, 4 September 2008 OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. The Role of Coal in Indonesian Economic Development 3. Present Status on Coal Reserves and Resources, Production, Export and Domestic Sales 3.1. Coal Reserves and Resources 3.2. Production, Export and Sales 3.3. Coal Players 3.4. Domestic Coal Consumers 3.5. Coal Quality 4. Energy Mix Blue Print ( ) 2025) 5. Long Run Prediction on Coal Domestic Utilization 6. Key Issues which Require Immediate Improvement 7. Investment Opportunity in upstream and down-stream coal industries 8. Conclusion Remarks 2 L-9-1

2 1. INTRODUCTION 3 INTRODUCTION In the last three years, the mining industry both in Indonesia and a globally experienced significantly high performance. For Indonesia, PricewaterhouseCoopers reported that in 2006: - EBITDA Margin was 41.2% in average - Net Profit Margin was 22.5% in average - Return on Capital Employed was 26.0% in average - Return on Shareholders fund was 39.4% in average - Net Debt to Equity Ratio was 46.5% in average Mining Industry in Indonesia: - Continue to having strong balance sheets due to strong profits - Debt to Equity Ratios having decreased - Current Assets have also increased Investment in Mining Sector is increasing? however there is still room for improvement in investment climate. 4 L-9-2

3 2. THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDONESIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (2006) 5 THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDONESIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (2006) The mining industry continues to be an important contributor to the Indonesian economic; Mining Products accounted for approximately 3% of the total Indonesian GDP in 2006 (up from 2% in 2005) The industry also continue to make significant contributions to regional and Community Development In 2006, Total Growth Revenue (tax, royalties and other levies) increased 27% to US$ 3.4 billion, a record for the last 10 years. L-9-3

4 THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDONESIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (2006) (continued) Total number of direct employees has increased by 3% to approximately in 2006 Employee compensation has increased significantly by approximately 49% overall due to increased benefits received as a result of increased profits and production. The outlook for the job market in the mining industry is extremely positive due to the potential for new projects and expansions in coming years. Because of the indirect multiplier effect the total economic benefit to Indonesia is significantly greater than data reported. Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers 3. Present Status on Coal Reserves and Resources, Production, Export and Domestic Sales L-9-4

5 COAL RESOURCES, RESERVES AND QUALITY (2006) NO ISLAND QUALITY (CALORIE) CRITERIA VALUE OF CALORIE (gr/cal) RESOURCES (M. Ton) RESERVES (M. Ton) 1. Java Low Medium < ,24 0,00 High Very High ,97 0,00 2. Sumatra Low Medium < , ,62 High Very High ,66 134,11 3. Kalimantan Low Medium < , ,01 High Very High , ,10 4. Sulawesi Low Medium < ,42 0,06 High Very High ,68 0,00 5. Maluku Low Medium < ,13 0,00 6. Papua Low Medium < ,35 0,00 High Very High ,91 0,00 TOTAL RESOURCES IN , ,90 9 COAL RESOURCES AND RESERVES DISTRIBUTION BY PROVINCE (M.TONS) 2006 NANGROE ACEH DARUSALAM RESOURCES = MINEABLE = n.a. CENTRAL KALIMANTAN RESOURCES = 1, MINEABLE = EAST KALIMANTAN RESOURCES = 19, MINEABLE = 2, PAPUA RESOURCES = MINEABLE = n.a. RIAU RESOURCES = 2, MINEABLE = WEST KALIMANTAN RESOURCES = MINEABLE = n.a SOUTH SUMATRA RESOURCES = 22, MINEABLE = 2, WEST SUMATRA RESOURCES = MINEABLE = BENGKULU RESOURCES = MINEABLE = SOUTH KALIMANTAN RESOURCES = 8, MINEABLE = 1, SOUTH SULAWESI RESOURCES = MINEABLE = L-9-5

6 COAL MINING PLAYERS/GROUP (2006) STATE OWNED COMPANY (PTBA) *) Contribute 4.8% of national coal production INDONESIA S COAL PLAYER GROUP MINING AUTHORIZATION (MA HOLDERS) ***) Contribute 11.3% of national coal production COAL CONTRACTS OF WORK (CCOW HOLDERS) **) *) 1 Company in production **) 34 Companies in production 40 Companies not yet in production ***) 169 Companies in production Contribute 83.9% of national coal production 11 M.Tons INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC SALES GROWTH ( ) Domestic Export Production Growth Domestic Sales M.tons/Year or 4.93 % Growth Export M.tons/Year or % Growth Production M.tons/Year or % Source: - Directorate of Mineral and Coal Enterprise Indonesia Mineral and Coal Statistic APBI-ICMA L-9-6

7 INDONESIA COAL QUALITY BASED ON THE SPECIFIC ENERGY (KCAL/KG) High Quality ( kcal/kg) 13% Very High Quality (>7100 kcal/kg) 1% Low Quality (< 5100 kcal/kg) 24% 62% Medium Quality ( kcal/kg) ENERGY MIX BLUE PRINT ( ) 14 L-9-7

8 ENERGY MIX BLUE PRINT CURRENT AND FUTURE OUTLOOK ( ) M.BOE Oil Gas Coal Others Coal: A spectacular increased (931,1) (1,098.8) (1,470.7) (2,190.4) (3,151.4) Source: Data & Information Centre MEMR (2007) Oil Gas Coal Others 493 YEAR LONG RUN PREDICTION ON COAL DOMESTIC UTILIZATION 16 L-9-8

9 LONG RUN PREDICTION ON INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION ( ) Realization Production Production Production (Million Tons) Export Domestic Sales (Base on Year Source APBI - ICMA KEY ISSUES WHICH REQUIRE IMMEDIATE IMPROVEMENT 18 L-9-9

10 KEY ISSUES WHICH REQUIRE IMMEDATE IMPROVEMENT Conflict between mining operations and forestry regulations Duplication and Contradictions between Central and Regional Government Regulation Taxation Issues Delay in finalization of new mining law COW System vs Mining Licensing (IUP) Illegal Mining Coordination between regulatory body INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY IN COAL UPSTREAM AND DOWN STREAM INDUSTRIES 20 L-9-10

11 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY IN COAL UPSTREAM INDUSTRIES The development of green field/ Grass Root. Joint Venture/ Joint Operation/ Acquisition. Mining Contractor. Transportation (River, inland, sea transportation) Coal Terminal. Washing Plant/ Blending Plant. The development of Coal Bed Methane. Post Mining Contractor. 21 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY IN COAL DOWN STREAM INDUSTRIES Coal Supplier, Exporter/ Trader. Energy Conversion Plant. Upgrading Brown Coal. Gasification. Briquetting. Liquefactions. 22 L-9-11

12 8. CONCLUSION 23 CONCLUSION 1. The role of coal in Indonesian economic development will increase furthermore in the next twenty years as stated in the energy mix blue print. 2. Strong coal prices continue to drive production and exports levels. 3. To secure domestic energy supply GOI will implement DMO to coal producers at market price. 4. There are a lot of opportunity for investment in upstream and downstream coal industries. 5. There are still rooms for improvement in attracting new investors. 24 L-9-12

13 THANK YOU Supriatna Suhala, Executive Director APBI-ICMA Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia (Indonesian Coal Mining Association) Menara Kuningan Building, 1 th Floor, Suite A Jl.. H. R. Rasuna Said Blok X-7 X 7 Kav.5 Jakarta INDONESIA Phone/Fax : , , Website : icma.com L-9-13

14 L-9-14

15 インドネシアにおける石炭産業の現状および将来 Supriatna Suhala インドネシア石炭鉱山協会 (ICMA) 事務局長 インドネシアにおける石炭産業の現状および将来 Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia - APBI ( インドネシア石炭鉱山協会 -ICMA) By Supriatna Suhala インドネシア石炭鉱山協会 (ICMA) 事務局長 Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008 発表財団法人石炭エネルギーセンター (JCOAL) 東京 2008 年 9 月 4 日 概要 1. はじめに 2. インドネシアの経済発展における石炭の役割 3. 石炭の埋蔵量と資源量 生産量 輸出量 国内販売量の現状 3.1. 石炭の埋蔵量と資源量 3.2. 生産量 輸出量 販売量 3.3. 石炭産業のプレーヤー 3.4. 国内の石炭消費者 3.5. 石炭の品質 4. エネルギーミックス計画 (2006( 年 ) 5. 石炭の国内利用に関する長期予測 6. 改善を要する主要課題 7. 石炭産業の上流および下流における投資チャンス 8. 結論 2 L-9-15

16 1. はじめに 3 はじめに 過去 3 年にわたり インドネシアおよび世界の石炭鉱業は著しく高い伸びを示した インドネシアについて 2006 年にプライスウォーター ハウス クーパース (PwC( PwC) ) は以下を報告した : - EBITDA マージンは平均 41.2% であった - 純利益率は平均 22.5% であった - 使用総資本利益率は平均 26.0% であった - 株主資本利益率は平均 39.4% であった - Net D/E レシオは平均 46.5% であった インドネシアにおける石炭鉱業 : - 強い収益により強力なバランスシートを持続 - D/E レシオ減少 - 流動資産も増加 鉱業部門に対する投資は増加している? 善の余地がある しかし投資環境にはまだ改 4 L-9-16

17 インドネシアの経済発展における石炭の役割 (2006 年 ) ( 続き ) 2006 年における直接雇用の総従業員数は 3% 増加し およそ 38,000 人であった 2. インドネシアの経済発展における石炭の役割 ( 2006 年 ) 収益および生産量の増加に伴う利益の増大により 従業員に対する報酬は全体としておよそ 49% と著しく増加した 将来の新しいプロジェクトや設備拡張の見込みにより 石炭鉱業界における求人市場の見通しは非常に明るい 間接的な相乗効果により インドネシアの経済的利益は報告されたデータよりはるかに大きい 出所 : プライスウォーターハウスクーパース 5 インドネシアの経済発展における石炭の役割 (2006 年 ) 石炭鉱業はインドネシア経済に大きく貢献し続けている ; 2006 年に石炭鉱業製品はインドネシアの総 GDP のおよそ 3% を占めた (2005( 年の 2% から増加 ) 石炭鉱業は地域および地域共同体の発展にも大きく貢献し続けている 2006 年の総収益成長率 ( 税金やロイヤルティおよび他の賦課金 ) は 27% 増加し 過去 10 年間で最高の 34 億米ドルを記録した L-9-17

18 3. 石炭の埋蔵量と資源量 生産量 輸出量 および国内販売量の現状 石炭の埋蔵量 資源量 および品質 (2006 年 ) NO 島名 分類 品質 ( 熱量 ) 発熱量 (gr/cal) 資源量 ( 百万トン ) 埋蔵量 ( 百万トン ) 1. ジャワ低 中 < ,24 0,00 高 非常に高 ,97 0,00 2. スマトラ 低 中 < , ,62 高 非常に高 ,66 134,11 3. カリマンタン 低 中 < , ,01 高 非常に高 , ,10 4. スラウェシ 低 中 < ,42 0,06 高 非常に高 ,68 0,00 5. マルク 低 中 < ,13 0,00 6. パプア 低 中 < ,35 0,00 高 非常に高 ,91 0, 年総資源量 , ,90 9 L-9-18

19 州ごとの石炭資源量 埋蔵量分布 ( 百万トン ) 2006 年 ナングル アチェ ダルサラム州資源量 = 可採量 = n.a. 中央カリマンタン州資源量 = 1, 可採量 = 東カリマンタン州資源量 = 19, 可採量 = 2, パプア州資源量 = 可採量 = n.a. リアウ州資源量 = 2, 可採量 = 南スマトラ州資源量 = 22, 可採量 = 2, 西カリマンタン州資源量 = 可採量 = n.a 西スマトラ州資源量 = 可採量 = ブンクル州資源量 = 可採量 = 南カリマンタン州資源量 = 8, 可採量 = 1, 南スラウェシ州資源量 = 可採量 = 石炭鉱業プレーヤー / グループ (2006 年 ) 国営会社 (PTBA) *) 全国石炭生産量の 4.8% のシェア インドネシアの石炭産業プレーヤー / グループ 鉱業権 (MA 保有者 ) ***) 全国石炭生産量の 11.3% のシェア *) 生産中 1 社 **) 生産中 34 社生産予定 40 社 ***) 生産中 169 社 石炭事業契約 (CCOW 保有者 ) **) 全国石炭生産量の 83.9% のシェア 11 L-9-19

20 百万トン- APBI-ICMA Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008 インドネシアの石炭生産量 輸出量 国内販売量の伸び (1995 年 年 ) 国内 輸出 生産量 国内販売成長率 年 3.4 M.tons/ 年即ち 4.93 % 生産成長率 年 M.tons/ 年即ち15.81 % 輸出成長率 年 11.3 M.tons/ 年即ち % 出所 : - Directorate of Mineral and Coal Enterprise Indonesia Mineral and Coal Statistic 比エネルギー (KCAL/KG) によるインドネシアの炭質 高品質 ( kcal/kg) 13% 非常に高品質 1% (>7100 kcal/kg) 低品質 (< 5100 kcal/kg) 24% 62% 中品質 ( kcal/kg) 13 L-9-20

21 4. エネルギーミックス計画 ( 年 ) 14 百万 BOE エネルギーミックス計画現状と将来の見通し ( 年 ) 石油ガス石炭その他 石炭 : 目覚ましい増加 Others (931,1) (1,098.8) (1,470.7) (2,190.4) (3,151.4) 出所 : Data & Information Centre MEMR (2007) Oil Gas Coal 年 15 L-9-21

22 5. 石炭の国内使用に関する長期予測 16 インドネシアの石炭生産量 輸出量 および国内消費量に関する長期予測 ( 年 ) 実績 生産量 予測 生産量 ( 百万トン ) 輸出量 : 国内販売量 ( 根拠 年 出所 :APBI - ICMA 17 L-9-22

23 6. 改善を要する主要課題 18 改善を要する主要課題 採炭活動と森林規制との間に横たわる溝 中央政府と地方行政による規制の間に存在する重複と矛盾 税制問題 新たな鉱業法を確定させる上での遅延 COW システム対鉱業ライセンス (IUP( IUP) 不法採炭 規制機関との協調 19 L-9-23

24 7. 石炭産業の上流と下流における投資チャンス 20 石炭産業の上流における投資チャンス 未開発地域 / 新規鉱山の開発 合弁 / 合同操業 / 買収 採炭契約業者 輸送 ( 河川 内陸 海上輸送 ) 石炭ターミナル 選炭プラント / ブレンドプラント 炭層メタンの開発 採炭後処理契約業者 21 L-9-24

25 石炭産業の下流における投資チャンス 石炭供給業者 輸出者 / トレーダー エネルギー変換プラント 褐炭の改質 高品質化 ガス化 ブリケット化 液化 結論 23 L-9-25

26 結論 1. インドネシアの経済発展における石炭の役割は エネルギーミックス計画で述べたように 向こう 20 年の間さらに増大するであろう 2. 高い石炭価格が生産量と輸出量を推進し続ける 3. 国内のエネルギー供給を確保するため GOI は石炭生産者に対して市場価格で DMO を課すであろう 4. 石炭産業の上流と下流には多くの商機がある 5. 新たな投資家を引きつけるためにはまだ改善の余地がある 24 L-9-26

27 氏名 : Supriatna Suhala Education: First Degree: Mining Engineering Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia (1975) Second Degree: School of Mining Engineering The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (1986) Professional Career: Researcher in the Mineral Technology Development Centre (MTDC) in Bandung Director of MTDC Director of Mining Engineering (Chief Mining Inspector) Directorate General of Mines, DEMR Head of International Cooperation Bureau DEMR Inspector to the Inspectorate Generale of DEMR Director of Energy & Electricity Research Center, DEMR Head of General Affairs Bureau - DEMR Member of ANTAM Tbk. s Board of Commissioners (State Owned Mining Company) 2008 Present Executive Director to the APBI ICMA Supriatna Suhala 学歴 : 職歴 : 第一学位 : 鉱山工学バンドン工科大学 ( インドネシア )1975 年 第二学位 : 鉱山工学部ニューサウスウェールズ大学 ( 豪州シドニー )1986 年 鉱物技術開発センター (MTDC)( バンドン ) 研究員 MTDC 所長 エネルギー 鉱物資源省 (DEMR) 鉱山総局鉱山技術局長 ( 主席鉱山 保安監督官 ) DEMR 国際協力局長 DEMR 総合検査団検査官 DEMR エネルギー 電力研究センター長 DEMR 総務局長 アンタム社 (ANTAM Tbk: インドネシア国営鉱山会社 ) 理事会メンバー L-9-27

28 2008 現在 APBI/ICMA( インドネシア石炭鉱山協会 ) 事務局長 L-9-28

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