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Takuya NOMOTO Global Environment Bureau, Ministry of the Environment, Japan Measures to produce National Adaptation Plan for climate change in Japan Climate change impact in Japan Temperature Climate

1 Takuya NOMOTO Global Environment Bureau, Ministry of the Environment, Japan Measures to produce National Adaptation Plan for climate change in Japan Climate change impact in Japan Temperature Climate change and future prospects in Japan Rise of average temperature (1.15 degrees over past 100 years) Rise by degrees by the end of 21 st century, compared with (prediction 99( i using scenario and model in IPCC AR4) Change of annual average temperature in Japan Change from average t emperature fro 0 om 1981 to 2010 Rise of average te emperature in Japan Meteorological Agency(2012) MEXT, MA, MOE, Japan(2009)

2 Climate change impact in Japan Precipitation Chaange from averaage precipitation n from 1981 to [mm] Changes compared with recent years in Japan Number of days; >200mm/hour Number of days Number of dayys Number of days; >100mm/hour Meteorological Agency(2012) Climate Change Impacts (1) Heavy Rain Disaster Disaster risks due to heavy rain are predicted to increase Possibilities of floods, which exceed final river maintenance target, are projected to be times higher than current levels in Japan (based on the research for first grade rivers in Japan) 留萌川天塩川渚滑川湧別川常呂川網走川十勝川石狩川尻別川後志利別川釧路川沙流川鵡川高瀬川岩木川馬淵川米代川雄物川北上川子吉川赤川最上川鳴瀬川名取川荒川阿賀野川関川阿武隈川黒部川姫川小矢部川久慈川梯川常願寺川利根川那珂川手取川庄川神通川九頭竜川信濃川北川円山川日野川天神川千代川木曽川由良川天竜川斐伊川高津川太田川芦田川高梁川江の川淀川揖保川加古川旭川吉井川鈴鹿川大和川紀の川土器川吉野川松浦川小瀬川佐波川遠賀川重信川嘉瀬川山国川大分川仁淀川筑後川肱川大野川矢部川渡川菊池川番匠川白川六角川緑川本明川五ヶ瀬川球磨川小丸川川内川大淀川肝属川那賀川物部川矢作川庄内川新川雲出川櫛田川宮川豊川荒川多摩川相模川鶴見川富士川狩野川大井川安倍川菊川 Magnification of flooding in hydrographic basin Magnification is a median of future magnification of floodingg ( ) divided byy current magnification g ( ) Reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

3 Climate Change Impacts (2) Habitat Change to North Future prediction shows that suitable water temperature for corals will shift northwards. However, coral habitats will be trapped between increased coral bleaching area and acidified area which are not suitable for coral growth. The habitat for tropical/subtropical corals around Japan might be decreased by half between and lost completely between Changes in Coral Habitats shifting North between Current (2000) and Future (2040, 2060 and 2090) Green line: northern limit of tropical/subtropical coral habitat Yellow line: northern limit of temperature coral habitat Black line: 30 water temperature line (not suitable for coral habitat) Mesh: indicator of acidification df (saturation of aragonite). Saturation of aragonite is decreased dwhen carbon dioxide melts into the sea, and aragonite is dissolved when it is under 1. Reference Yara, Y., M. Vogt, M. Fujii, H. Yamano, C. Hauri, M. Steinacher, N. Gruber and Y. Yamanaka, 2012: Ocean acidification limits temperature induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan Biogeosciences, 9, Climate Change Impacts (3) Agriculture Yields of irrigated rice will be increased but the quality might be negatively impacted Nation 62.0% 17.6% Ratio of Class 1 Over 90 % Hokkaido 88.0% +0.9% 09% Less than 30 % Tohoku Chugoku/ Hokuriku 76.1% Shikoku 43.0% 14.1% 36.1% 40.1% 18.5% Kanto 75.0% Tokai 14.9% Kyushu Kinki 25.2% Okinawa 35.2% 35.6% 32.5% 44.0% +0.1% 32.4% +23.8% Quality and crop situation of irrigated rice in 2010 Map of Japan shows: Indicator of rice production in each prefecture (number on prefecture) Ratio of Class 1 rice (colour of prefecture) Number in the box shows: the ratio of class 1 rice in 2010 (upper box) deviation from average over last 5 years Reference: Tomoya Watanabe (2012) What level does climate change make impacts on agricultural production, how to address and how should agriculture, forestry and fishery sector tackle climate change? Research project funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. 6

4 Climate Change Impact (4) Human Health Human health average temperature in January Aedes aegypti Measures on Climate Change Adaptation Mitigation: Control emissions of GHGs, a cause of global warming Adaptation: Adjust society and environment to global warming impacts which have been happening and are likely to happen Increase GHGs emissions Change on climatic elements Impacts from global warming CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use Temperature and sea level rise, change in Impacts on natural environment and rainfall pattern human society Mitigation Control GHGs emissions Adaptation Adjust environment and society

5 Countermeasures for adaptation to climate change by MOEJ R and D Achievements Climate change impact in Japan Project for comprehensive projection of climate change impacts ( ) 2008 Wise adaptation to climate change 2009 Comprehensive report on observation and prediction of climate change 2010 Approaches to climate change adaptation 2011 Comprehensive Statistic report and portal site for climate change impact Research on Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Policies ( ) 2013 Integrated report on observation, prediction and impact assessment of climate change Steps towards Adaptation Plan Establish Expert Committee on Climate Change Impact Assessment at 114 th Global Environmental Subcommittee, Central Environmental Council (2 July, 2013) Further detailed projection of climate change in Japan to monitor extreme events Assessment on climate change impacts in Japan Analysis on risk information Summarize climate change impacts, risk assessment and future issues (around Jan, 2015) Extraction of priority areas/issues in short term ( 10 years), middle term (10 30 years) and long term ( years) Review at each ministry i Develop adaptation plan as a government wide integrated effort (summer, 2015) Regular review (every 5 years)

6 Adaptation measures in prefectures Nagano prefecture Establishing monitoring network with citizens participation Establishing Task Force for adaptation in strategy meeting for climate change Kyoto prefecture Adaptation measures (ex. Alert system for flood, heat stroke, local production for local consumption of food) in Prefectural Action Plan Saitama prefecture Prescribed adaptation in prefectural ordinance Adaptation measures (ex. Heat stroke, drought, crops)in Prefectural Action Plan Kumamoto prefecture Special Committee for adaptation measures Mie prefecture Basic investigation throughout the prefecture( ) Starting the discussion for Adaptation Plan Okinawa prefecture Okinawa prefecture Adaptation measures (ex. Protection of coast, influences on agriculture, water resources) in Prefectural Action Plan

第16回提案募集検討専門部会資料4

第16回提案募集検討専門部会資料4 4 保安林制度の概要保安林は水源の涵養災害の防備生活環境の保全等の目的の達成のために必要な森林について森林法に基づき農林水産大臣又は都道府県知事が指定指定目的を達成するために必要な森林施業上の要件 ( 指定施業要件 ) を定め伐採制限や転用の規制等の制約を課すことにより保安機能の十全の発揮を図る制度保安林の種類保安林制度の体系保安林の機能復旧保安林指定 (1 号 ) 水源かん養