Microsoft Word _030810_JTEKT_J.doc

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1 ÎÑÎ ÓÑÔÏÒÐ/ Equity Research () / OVERWEIGHT yv (from Outperform) NEUTRAL* [V] (10 3 5, ) 941 ( ) (from 1,400) 1,000¹ (%) 6.3 dš ( ) (US$ 3.35) ( ) s Ì ( ) (%) ~Ö Ñ * yv Ê v ÊÏ ÒÒÐÑÉÊ Ê ÉÆÉÆÌÈ zê ÇÆ12 Î. [V] = volatileéìêèíí ÒÏÑÐÖ ÑÕ ÎÔ ÒÏÐÑ ÖÐ ÒÎÒÖÑÒ { shinji.kuroda@credit-suisse.com x yukihiro.kumagai@credit-suisse.com ÓÔÏ Ô Ñ (LHS) ªª ªªªª(RHS) 0 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 ÒÕ ÒÊ TOPIX Ê ÈÍÓÔÏ Ô ÑÎ È Ê TOPIX Ê ÊÖ ÒÊ 1 ÒÖ 90.3 ÓÔÏ Ô Ñ (%) (%) ジェイテクト (6473 / 6473 JP) yvç Ç NEUTRAL へ引き下げ 株価は底打ちとみるが業績不透明感の払拭を待ちたい ÒÕÑi ÉÊv Ç ÉfÆÍ: ÐÖÒÏ ÑÏÑ Ã Ã ÉÊÂÊÒÕÑi Ç ÎÊÆÉÈÂÑÏ ÏÒÐÒ ÃÃ Ê dîèíâî 1,400 ÇÍ 1,000 Ë Ç Ç yv Î Outperform ÇÍ NEUTRAL Ë Ç Ç ÍÂÊÂÒÕÑi ÉÊ PBR=1 ÊÌÉ mèéæíâ ÖÑÐÊ ÊÆÉÌÍÂÉÉÈ d ~ÉÖÐ Ö ŠÊu Î v ÈËÇÏÑÖÑÒÌÒ ÑÇu ÉÍÊÆ v ÊÑÏÕ ÐÉ Î ÍÉÆ uññ ÑËu ÎÈÍ: ÉÊ 1 Ð Ñ ÐÑ d ÊÊ 2 i ~Ê 3Q ÉuÍÍÉ h Ê ÈÇÍ Í déê  3 ÑÐÖÒÔÏ Ñ ÒÏÔ ÉÌÊÊÉÊ wêi y ÇÂÊÊÇÍÊ yññ ÑÎÈÉÇÉÂÈÇÈÂÊ ÊÒÕÑ ŠÎÊ mâòõ Ò Ê ÊÊÆÍÌÊÊ v ÊÊ É 1-2Q ÉÈÍÊÖÐ Ö ŠÊu Îw ÉÇÍÏÑ ÖÑÒÊÊÆÉÌÍÍÍÂÊv Ì ÌÊÇÈÍÍÆ ˆÊuÑÑ ÑÉiÌÉÆ ÏÑÖÑÒ: ÉÊÒÕÑÊ g ÉÉÌÊ ÇÇÈÉfÆ ÉÇÉÂÈÇÈÂÖÐ ÖÊv ÊÉÉÌÊÖÐ ÖÎ sèí Õ Ï ÇÆÉÆÍÂÖÐ Ö ŠÊ ˆ Î ÉÉÆ ÓÖÕÏ ÑÕ : 1,000 ÊÊ ÉÉÉÊÂ~Í ROIC Õ ÒÖÊ 11 3 Ê dî ÉÊÌÉÂÌÉÒÕÑi Ê PBR ÌÈÉ sçê dê ÈÍ ~ÇÈÍÍÌÉÂÒ ÕÑi 11 3 ÔÖ ÕÓ ÐÔ Ñ PBR=1 É PBR=1 Ô ÑÂBPS=993 Î ÉÈÉ Ï ÔÖÏÒ PER Ê 23  y ÓÖÕÏ ÑÕ () ( ) 1, ( ) ( ) ( ) EPS ( ) EPS (%) n.a Ð Ñ ÐÑ EPS ( ) n.a EPS (%) 70.0 P/E (X) NM NM Í(%) EV/EBITDA (X) P/B (X) ROE(%) y /y (%) y ÂDatastreamÂIFIS ÂCredit Suisse. ÒÏÑÐÖ ÑÕ ÎÔ ÒÏÐÑÊÎÒÖÑÒÐ ÒÏÔÏÐ ÑÕ Ë Ê ~ÊÈÍÎÒÖÑÒ ÊÎ ÎÉÆÍÌÈ ÊÒÏÑÐÖ ÑÕ : Credit Suisse Êw ÖÔ ÒÉwy ÉÈÉÆÍÉÓ ÑÓÑÎsÊÉÉÆÍÂÌÉÊsÊÆÇÆÍÌÈÂÈÉÇÉÉ y Ê ÖÔ ÒÊ u Ê Î ËÈÊ ÆÍÇÊÈÉÆÍ h ÎvxÈÍ uçæíìèâ ÖÔ ÒÊÆÇÌÉ y ÊÊÉÉÊ ÉÆfÆÇÉÈÆÂ

2 投資見解 不透明感が払拭されるまで様子見スタンスで臨みたい yv Î NEUTRAL ÉÈ v ÊÑÏÕ ÐÎ ÍÉÆ ÇÍÌÉÉÊ 1 ÊÐ Ñ ÐÑ dêê = dê V  2 3Q ÊÆÇÍ ÆÍËi Õ Ï ÊdÇ È d ˆËÊ Â 3 ÑÐÖÒÔÏ Ñ ÒÏÔ Ì wîèíi y Ç ÌÉÍÈÊ ÈÍ ÂÊÊÎ v Âi ~Ê f fê ÈÉ Ê yññ ÑÎÈÉÇÉ u Ç ÇÂTP ÊÊÊROICÕÒÖÊ ÆÂÒÕÑi Ê PBR Ìf ÈÉ ÈÇÈÂÒÕÑi ÊÖÐ Ö ŠÊ Î ÈÉÖÐ Ö ŠÇ ÊÆÇÍ ÖÐ ÖÊÓ ÒÖÎ ÇÂÇÊÖÐ ÖÎsÆ ~Ç ÌÉÉÆÍÉ fæíâñóööõ Ñ Ñ GM Ì ÓÖ ÑÒÎÖ ÐÊÆÇÍÕ ÑÊ ÎÊÑÔÖ ÔÖ ÒÊÐÓÖÒÎ 130ÖÐ ÖÈÍÉ sèéâ ÑÒÎÖ Ð ÐÖÕÊ z ŠÊÊÇÂÕ Ñ =Ê l ÂÊ t Ê ÊÊÇÂÑÔÒÏÏÎÊÊÇÂGM Ê zê ŠÊÊÇÂÊy Ê ÇÉÇÌÊÆÊÆÍÂÖÐ ÖÊÂÇÉÉÊ li ÊÓÔ ŠÉuÍÍÉÍ ÆÊÂ Õ Ï ÊÉÉÉ ÎÌÉÍÈÌÆÍ ˆÂv ÂÈÍÊÊ v ÊiÍÌÆÍ ÑÒÎÖ ÐÊ 1 2 ÉÆÍÂÊ GM ÊÖÐ ÖÉ 1 5,000 ÊÐÑÒ Ç ÈÍÉÈÉÊÊÇÇÍ~ y Ê 65Év ÈÍÍ ÆÈÍÊÈÍÂÌÊÖÐ ÖÇŠÈÍÖÑÐÂy v ÊÊÊÎ ÈÍÉ u Ç ÇÂÊ dê ÈÆÂÈÉÇÉÉ ÊÊÂ~ÍROICÎ ÆÉÈÉÇÈÍÊ ÈÉÂÒÕÑi Ê 11/3 ÔÖ ÕÓ ÐÔ Ñ PBR=1 Ìf ÈÉ sçê dê ÈÍ ~Ç ÈÍÍÌÉÒÕÑi Ê PBR É Ê PBR=1 11/3 Ô Ñ Ç Â yv Î Outperform ÇÍ NEUTRAL Ë Ç ÇÂuÑÑ ÑÉiÌÉÆ ÒÕÑ ŠuÊ ~ÊÖÓÏ ÒÊ 6471 É ÆÉÆ 2010 ÊÂÔÐÖ ÑÕÔÐÖÊ Ç ÇÂÇ ÇÇ mèé Ê È y ÆÇÂÓÔÏ Ô ÑÊÊ Î ÍÉfÆÍ ÊÊ r ÇdÌ ÊÐÔÒ 6301 Ì 6305  ÊÊÂÐÖÑÕÊÒÔÏÖÒ Š ÊÑ ÏÐ 6367 ÊÊÊ È yæéæíâ ÊÖÐ ÖÆÍËÒÕÑi Ê ŠÊÂÿÊu ÉÆÍÂ Ê ~ ŠÊÌÉÈÍÉÊfÆÊÇÇÂÊÖÓÏ ÒÌ héuíâéêâ Ê d Ç Æ 6471ÂOUTPERFORMÂTP 860 ÎÐÎÊ ~ fêæçíöóï ÒÊÎÖÔÎÎ ÆÉÆÉfÆÍÂ Ç v ÊÔÏ ÒÉÊÍÇ ÒÕÑ ŠÊuÊ ÖÓÏ ÒÊ ÊÆÍ É ÆÉÆ Ê ~ÇÐÖÎÈÍÍÉÈÉÊÂy ÊÊ ÉÖÐ Ö ŠÊu Ç ÇÍÍÍÆÂÉÉÈÂÈÍÊÆÍË dê ÊsÍÍÊÌÉfÆÍ ÍÂ5 ÉÊ dêv =ÉÉÈÂvÊÊ ÌÊ ÉÊÍÆ ÉwÉÊÐÕ ÒÂÈÍÊÊ 1-2Q ÊÊÉÊ ÊÆÉ ÊÔÒ ÑÕÖÊ vç v ÊÔÏ ÒÉÊÍÆ (6473 / 6473 JP) 2

3 s dò ÔÖ P/E (x) ~ 07/3 1,025,297 64,631 66,967 44, /3 1,157, , , , /3 1,017, , , ,954 NM NM NM 10/3 CS 762, ,000 NM -6,300 NM NM NM 759, , , ,300 NM NM NM 740, ,000 NM -5,000 NM -11,000 NM NM NM 740, ,000 NM -5,000 NM -11,000 NM NM NM IFIS 761, ,025 NM -2,025 NM -7,200 NM NM NM 11/3 CS 815, ,000 NM 26,000 NM 14,000 NM 43.6 NM , ,000 1, ,000 3, ,000 NM 62.3 NM 15.1 IFIS 839, ,825 NM 23,800 NM 14,450 NM 44.8 NM /3 CS 892, , , , , , , , : y Âà ÃÂIFISÂCredit Suisse sêéë ÐÔÑÐÑ 612+: ÓÔÏ Ô Ñ i f ~ ªªª ~ ~ FA ~ 70 09/3 09/4 09/5 09/6 09/7 09/8 09/9 09/10 09/11 09/12 10/1 10/ ÏÓÖÒÑ Î 100 ÉÈÉ : Ò ÑÑÒÖ ÕÂCredit Suisse si f fïóöòñ 612+: ÓÔÏ Ô Ñ ª ª ª ªªª 80 NTN 70 09/3 09/4 09/5 09/6 09/7 09/8 09/9 09/10 09/11 09/12 10/1 10/ ÏÓÖÒÑ Î 100 ÉÈÉ : Ò ÑÑÒÖ ÕÂCredit Suisse (6473 / 6473 JP) 3

4 s sçê dê ÈÍ ~ÊÎ ÉÉÆ É ( ) 26,000 16,000 CS ( ) 2,500 2,000 6,000 1,500-4,000 1,000-14,000 ( ) ( ) , Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 3/08 3/09 3/10 3/11 : y ÂÒ ÑÑÒÖ ÕÂCredit Suisse söð Ö Š ÊÒÕÑ ~ Ê m ÊÒÕÑ ~ Ê Î 100 ÉÈÉ : Ò ÑÑÒÖ ÕÂCredit Suisse /21/2010 1/23/2010 TOYOTA MOTOR J7203 NSK J6471 JTEKT J6473 TSUBAKIMOTO CHAIN J6371 DENSO J6902 AISIN SEIKI J7259 TOYOTA INDS. J6201 1/25/2010 1/27/2010 1/29/2010 1/31/2010 2/2/2010 2/4/2010 2/6/2010 2/8/2010 2/10/2010 2/12/2010 2/14/2010 2/16/2010 2/18/2010 2/20/2010 2/22/2010 2/24/2010 2/26/2010 2/28/2010 3/2/2010 3/4/2010 s ÂÔ Ñ ~ Ê Ê mêéêìí ÊÔ Ñ ~ Ê HONDA MOTOR J7267 KEIHIN J7251 TAKATA J7312 NISSIN KOGYO J MUSASHI SEIMITSU IND. J7220 SHOWA J7274 FCC J7296 STANLEY ELECTRIC J /21/ Î 100 ÉÈÉ : Ò ÑÑÒÖ ÕÂCredit Suisse 1/23/2010 1/25/2010 1/27/2010 1/29/2010 1/31/2010 2/2/2010 2/4/2010 2/6/2010 2/8/2010 2/10/2010 2/12/2010 2/14/2010 2/16/2010 2/18/2010 2/20/2010 2/22/2010 2/24/2010 2/26/2010 2/28/2010 3/2/2010 3/4/2010 (6473 / 6473 JP) 4

5 業績見通し 来期のトヨタ売上高は前期比横ばいの見通し Î 20 ÇÍ së ŠÈÍ ÊÂ Ç 1 12 ÂÈÈÉuÊ 4 3 ÉÆÍÂÇÊÉÌÂ2 ÊÒÕÑÊÆÇÍÊ dê ÈÈÂÌÈÍ dê ÇŠ ÈÈÆÉÆÍ ÉÉÈ 1 ÒÕÑÊ 3 ÇÍÉÌÎsÆ 2 ÇÈÉ i ~ yç 4Q Ê ÉÉÇÍÊ ÈÂÉÈÉÆÍÂÊÊΠΠ7,590ÇÍ 7,620Ê 30 ŠÈÍÇÂÎ 20ÇÍ s Ë 20 ŠÈÉ IFISÊ 10Ê Â v Ê 40 Êz ÂIFISÐ Ñ ÐÑÊ 10Êz ÉÆÍÇÂ3Q ÌÉÊ dî{ìæâ~héfæíâ ÇÊÂ10 3ÊÂ1QÉ2QÇÈÍÈÍÂ108Â34Êz ÂÈÈÉ 3Q Ê 38Ê Ê ÈÂ4QÊ ÊÌÉÇ Í ÇÍÉÈÍÍ v ÊÆÇÍ ÊÆÇÍÖ ÒÊ 1 ÒÖ 90 É 1 Õ Ö 125 Â1 É 5Â2Ê u ÉÊÍÂ Ê 370 ÇÍ 270 Ë 100 Š  ~ ÊÊ ÂÉÊÎÂÊÎ 1 ÒÖ 95 ÂÕ ÖÎ 120 Êv ÈÉÆÆ ÊÈÍÈÍ 85 Â130 ÂÊÒÕÑÐ Ö Ô ÇÊ ÊÊÆÈÍÉÊÊ É dîu ÈÉ ÆÉ 1 ÑÐÖÒÔÊÎuÍ Í ƒìèíç  ÊÐÑÒÉ 20 Ê ÊtƒÇÍw~ ÇÍ 1Ò ÆÉÍ 1 ÈÍ Êu  2 i Õ Ï ÇÍÊÑÏ u ÉÈÉ 40 Êu  3 Ê 40 Év ÂÊÊÎdÍ}ÎÉ ÇÊ Π8,300ÇÍ 8,150Ë 150 ŠÂÊ 370 ÇÍ 270 IFISÐ Ñ ÐÑÊ 248 Ë 100 ŠÈÉ ÉÊ-100 Ê ÈÉÊ 1 yé 60 Êu ÊyÊÉ 40Êu ÎuÉÆÉ Â 2 Ê ŠÊÊÇ sôîö ÐÊ Õ Ï «««NTN ª ªªª i ªªªªªªª ªªª dêv ÎÐÖ Î héìííí ÊÒÕÑ Ç Î ÊÆÊÉ d Îu ÈÉ i ~ «« ª (6473 / 6473 JP) 5

6 s Ô ÑÊ d /3 10/3CS 11/3CS ( ««1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q ªª ªªª 127, , ,200 71,200 69,241 87,621 96, ,000 80,000 82,000 97, ,000 (EPS 74,700 77,900 70,400 48,700 45,800 60,100 62,000 64,000 55,000 56,000 63,000 68,000 ( 53,000 48,600 43,800 22,500 23,441 27,521 34,900 36,000 25,000 26,000 34,000 36,000 36,900 35,100 30,000 20,400 19,299 24,834 28,582 31,000 25,000 25,000 30,000 33,000 ª ªªª 74,900 78,400 64,600 50,300 44,050 52,302 58,316 62,000 50,000 56,000 65,000 67,000 21,800 34,600 27,500 21,900 9,191 6,941 7,963 9,000 9,000 9,000 10,000 12,000 20,600 24,800 19,300 16,370 12,635 13,735 13,719 14,668 14,000 15,000 15,500 16,500 v 281, , , , , , , , , , , ,500 YoY (%) ªª ªªª (EPS ( ª ªªª v /3 10/3CS 11/3CS 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q ªª ªªª 6,400 5, ,500-1,500 1,500 2,700 5,000 1,500 1,500 3,000 4,500 (EPS 2,500 2,500 1,300-2, ,300 2,500 3,500 1,500 1,500 2,500 3,500 ( 3,900 2,900-1,100-4,700-1, , , ,600-3,700-1, , ,200 1,500 ª ªªª 6,900 5,200 1,200-2,800-3,200-1,000 2,500 4,800 1,600 2,500 3,500 4,000 1,000 3, ,900-3,000-2,300-1,500-1, ,500 2,000 3,100 1, v 17,000 17,200 1,400-13,230-10,800-3,400 3,800 10,400 2,800 4,300 8,000 11,900 YoY (%) ªª ªªª NM NM NM NM (EPS NM NM NM NM ( NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM ª ªªª NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM v NM NM NM NM NM NM /3 10/3CS 11/3CS 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q ªª ªªª (EPS ( ª ªªª v (6473 / 6473 JP) 6

7 sêòõñ Ç ÎÊÆÉÈÉ dêdí}îé Ô ÑÊ d 09/3 10/3CS 11/3CS 12/3CS 10/3 ( ««~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ªª ªªª 254, , , , , , , , , , ,000 (EPS 152, , , , , , , , , , ,000 ( 101,600 66, ,900 50,962 70, ,862 51,000 70, , , ,000 72,000 50, ,400 44,133 59, ,715 50,000 63, , , ,000 ª ªªª 153, , ,200 96, , , , , , , ,000 56,400 49, ,800 16,132 16,963 33,095 18,000 22,000 40,000 45,000 32,000 45,400 35,670 81,070 26,370 28,387 54,757 29,000 32,000 61,000 64,000 53,000 v 581, ,770 1,017, , , , , , , , ,000 YoY (%) ªª ªªª (EPS ( ª ªªª v /3 10/3CS 11/3CS 12/3CS 10/3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ªª ªªª 11,800-7,300 4, ,700 7,700 3,000 7,500 10,500 14,800 6,500 (EPS 5,000-1,500 3,500 1,900 6,000 7,900 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,800 - ( 6,800-5,800 1,000-1,900 1, ,500 1,500 2,000-1,100-5,300-4,200-2,500 2, ,000 2,700 3,700 7, ª ªªª 12,100-1,600 10,500-4,200 7,300 3,100 4,100 7,500 11,600 17,000 2,000 4,100 1,000 5,100-6,900-3,800-10,700-1,500 1, ,000-12,000 5,100 1,370 6, ,200 1,200-1,000 v 34,200-11,830 22,370-14,200 14, ,100 19,900 27,000 43,000-4,000 YoY (%) ªª ªªª -1.7 NM NM NM 71.1 NM (EPS 51.5 NM NM ( NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 22.7 NM ª ªªª -9.7 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM v -7.6 NM NM NM NM NM 40.1 NM /3 10/3CS 11/3CS 12/3CS 10/3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ªª ªªª (EPS ( ª ªªª v /3 10/3CS 11/3CS 12/3CS 10/3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ªªª ªª ªªª 139, , ,780 86, , ,569 85, , , ,940 - (EPS 83,930 65, ,435 58,245 69, ,545 58,830 69, , ,040 - ( 55,880 36,465 92,345 28,029 38,995 67,024 27,030 37,100 64,130 68,900-43,200 30,240 73,440 26,480 35,749 62,229 26,500 33,390 59,890 66,250 - ª ªªª 53,655 40,215 93,870 33,723 42,111 75,834 34,980 43,560 78,540 85,800-19,740 17,290 37,030 5,646 5,937 11,583 5,940 7,260 13,200 14,850-4,540 3,567 8,107 2,637 2,839 5,476 3,190 3,520 6,710 7,040 - v 260, , , , , , , , , ,880 - ªªª ªª ªªª 114,390 83, ,820 70,588 88, ,193 76,140 94, , ,060 - (EPS 68,670 53, ,265 47,655 56, ,355 52,170 61, , ,960 - ( 45,720 29,835 75,555 22,933 31,905 54,838 23,970 32,900 56,870 61,100-28,800 20,160 48,960 17,653 23,833 41,486 23,500 29,610 53,110 58,750 - ª ªªª 99,645 74, ,330 62,629 78, ,834 71,020 88, , ,200-36,660 32,110 68,770 10,486 11,026 21,512 12,060 14,740 26,800 30,150-40,860 32,103 72,963 23,733 25,548 49,281 25,810 28,480 54,290 56,960 - v 320, , , , , , , , , ,120 - YoY«ªªª «ªªª ªª ªªª (EPS ( ª ªªª v «ªªª «ªª ªªª (EPS ( ª ªªª v (6473 / 6473 JP) 7

8 sô ÑÊu 08/3 09/3 10/3CS 11/3CS 12/3CS ~ 1,157,500 1,017, , , , ,000 Š , ,070 53,000 77, , ,287-81,108-17,800 13, , ,962 70,800 63, ,700 22, ,000 43,000-4,000 v - -55,330-22,370 27,000 16,000 26,370 u - -11,219-6,360-1,050-9,500 y - -12, ,000-6,000 0 ª ª - -7,700-2,000-6,000-6,000-2,000 ªªªª - -1, , y - -1, ,000-5,000 0 u - -32,041-60, ,000 v - -72,030-69,247-11,050-17,000-71,500 u , , ,000 2,000 0 ªªª - 6,400 15,000 1, y , ,500 y - 0 5,000 5,000 1,000 6,000 y , ,000 ªªªª , y - 3, ,000 u ,320 22, , w~ , v - 16,700 46,877 38,050 33,000 45, ,330-22,370 27,000 16,000-26,000 s dê d 09/3 10/3 11/3 09/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 (4-9) (10-3) (4-9) (10-3) (4-9) (10-3) ~ ~ ~ ~ ªªª ªª« ªªª« « GDP «1««« «« «« «« i 10 vy ~ «14,429 15,000 9,379 9,750 9,379 9,750 29,429 19,129 19,129 19,129 «4.5% -17.6% -35.0% -35.0% 0.0% 0.0% % 0.0% 0.0% i «5,798 4,205 4,226 4,652 4,834 5,011 10,003 8,878 9,845 10,830 «5.8% -33.4% -27.1% 10.6% 14.4% 7.7% % 10.9% 10.0% ªªªª ,127 58,800 88, , , , ,000 « vy «2«5,655 2, ,614 1,760 2,151 8,241 3,690 3,910 6,915 5,656 2, ,042 1,961 2,396 8,243 2,807 4,357 5,749 TEL 2, ,170 1, ,740 3, , ,439 2,460 2,950 2,850 2,748 3,899 5,800 6,067 7,385 2,305 1,973 2,570 2,590 3,010 9,690 4,543 5,600 6,600 « ,385 2,305 1,973 3,127 3,100 3,600 9,690 5,100 6,700 8, (WTI) ªª/ªªª ƒ /ªª 70, , ,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 85,000 85,000 70,000 70,000 70, , ,000 70,000 70,000 80,000 85,000 85,000 75,000 85,000 ªªª ªªª ªªª « ªªª ªªª ª « «~ GDP dª ªªª«10/3 09/1-10/12 09/1-09/6 09/7-09/12«d zw 2«vy ªªª« «(6473 / 6473 JP) 8

9 リコールに至った経緯 トヨタのみならず GM もリコールを実施 ÖÐ Ö ŠÊÊÊ ÈÊÍÇ ÎuÈÈÆ ÒÕÑi ÊÂÖÐ ÖÊ yéêééïö ÖÂÏÕÖÊÊÊ8 Ê ÈÉÂ2 1 ÇÍ5 ÊÇÇÉ5ÉÎÈÉÂÈÊ Ê dˆëê Ê ÇuÍÍÊÇÉÉ ÒÕÑi ÊÆÇÍÊ Ê dê ÈÍu~È ÈÇÈÈÊ ÂÒÐÐÑ Ñ ÒÖÊÊ ÉÐ ÑÒÐ ÏÕÖÂÎÓÖ ÊÊ Ê 2 É 14 ÊÎsÆÉÒÕÑi Ç sâìéâ v2 ÉÌÎ ÈÍÇ ÈÉÇÉÆÍÂ Ê ÊÂ1 12 ÉÆÍ dëê ÇŠÈÈÆÉÆÍ sòõñ ŠÊ : Ê d /28 ªªªªªª 9/29 ªª s 11/25 ª y ªªª i s /21 ªªª Š ª y ªªªª s 1/26 s ªªªª y y ª ÿ s 1/27 i ª ~ s y v 2/1 ªªªi y «TMS«ªª ªªª vf u ªªªª s ªªªª y ÿ 2/2 vf u x ªªªª y 2/4 i ªªªªª ~y u v s ªª ª ªªªª Š vf u 2/5 x i ªªªª ÿ~ z Š u x 2/9 x ªª ª ª y ªªªª s 2/16 ªªª ªªªª ~ w s 2/17 x ªªªªª z ve ªªªª Š z s 2/18 x uª ˆ g ªªª i ªªª ªªªªª ªªªte w 2/19 x x uª ˆ g s 2/24 x ~ g 3/1 x vf u s ªªªi ªªªª ªª ª ªªªª y s t~ªy ªªª v ªªªª y 3/2 ««i y s«ªªª ª «3/3 ªªªª ªªªª s«ª ªªª ªªªª «ªªªª~ ªªª z zv ªªªi z Š ««u s : y  gâôö ÕÓ ÐÂCredit Suisse (6473 / 6473 JP) 9

10 株価バリュエーション トヨタ自動車と同様に PBR=1 倍で株価は底打ちへ ÊÊROICÕÒÖÊ ÆÉÒÕÑi ÊPBRÌf Â1,400 ÇÍ1,000 Ë Ç ÇÍ 12 ÊÊ ÈÉÊÂ~Í ROIC ÕÒÖ ÖÑÐÔÖÕÎÕ 4%ÂÖÑ ÐÔÖ Ö Ò 1.4%ÂWACC 4.7% Ê 11 3 dî ÉÊÌÉv Â1,400 ÇÍ 1,000 Ë Ç ÇÍÂÖÑ Ê 6  ÊÂÊÂÒÕÑi ÉÊ dê sç ~Ê ÎÊ PBR=1 Ô Ñ ÊÌÉ mâuíëç uóöõï ÑÕ Ç PBR ËÑÔÒÈÉÇÉÉÌfÆÍÍÍ ÉÊ Ç ÊÆ ÍÂÊÒÕ Ò ÌÂÊ~ÈÉ h Ç ÆÉuÍÍÍ ÉÉÈÂÒÕÑi ÊÈÍÊÍÖÑÐÂÖÐ ÖÊ ÌÌv Ö ÑÐÊÊÎÈÍÉ ÊÆÇÍ dê ÈÍ ~ÊÇÊÍ ÇÆÉfÆ ÍÍÍ ÊÊv ÊÊÊu}ÎÉÆÊÆ Â ÈÉÇÉÉÂÊ PBR=1 ÎÔÒÕÊ ÆÍË 1-2Q ÊÊÎ{ÌÆÉ Š É sçê ~Êu Î dêdí}ìêçíâêîòôð ÏÒ ÔÒ ÑÕÖÎ ÍÉÆÂ Ê ÉÇÏ ÔÖÏÒ PER Ê Ô ÑÂ È Â PBR Ê 1.0  EV/EBITDA Ê 5.8  IFIS Ð Ñ ÐÑ PER Ê 22.3  sïóöòñóöõï ÑÕ s ªªª yv s dš ««««09/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 09/3 10/3 11/3 12/ ªªª N 1,900 1, ,575 1, N 2,000 1, , ªªª O ,272, l N , NM ª ªª N 3,700 3, ,889 1, ªªª N 3,200 2, , O , ª ªªª N 1, , NM NM ª ª O , NTN O , NM NM ªª ªª N 19,200 19,400 50, SMC N 10,500 11,550 68, THK N 1,500 1, , NM ª ªªª N 7,700 8, ,812 1, ªªªªª N 1,050 1, , N , NM ªª N , NM t N , NM NM NM ªªª O , NM NM ªªªª ªªª yv EPS DPS ROE EV/EBITDA ( ) «10/3««10/3««10/3««10/3«09/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 09/3 PCFR ( ) 10/3 11/3 12/ ªªª N N ªªª O l N ª ªª N ªªª N O ª ªªª N ª ª O O ªª ªª N N N NM ª ªªª N ªªªªª N N ªª N NM t N NM NM ªªª O NM NM PER ( ) Ê PBR=1 Î Ê ÉfÆÊ ÆÉfÆÍÍÂÊ~ ÈÉÉuÍ dê sç ~Ê ÉÉÌÊÊÎÒÔÐÏ Ò ÔÒ ÑÕÖÎ ÍÉÆ PBR ( ) O = OUTPERFORM N = NEUTRAL U = UNDERPERFORM ªªªª (6473 / 6473 JP) 10

11 sðö ÓÖÐÕÓÑÖÐÒÑ ÏÓÖÒÑÓÖÕÏ ÑÕ s Auto-related FA-related Infrastructure-related consumables Mach. Tools Code Company Name Rating PE PB 3/09 3/10 E 3/11 E 3/12 E 3/09 3/10 E 3/11 E 3/12 E Domestic 6301 Komatsu N Hitachi Construction Machinery N Kubota O Ebara N Daikin Industries N Makita N Overseas SZ Changsha Zoomlion Heavy Industry O SZ Guangxi Liugong Machinery O SS Sany Heavy Industry O CAT Caterpillar Inc. O DE Deere & Co. O BDK Black & Decker N NM SGEF.PA Vinci O Domestic 6471 NSK O JTEKT N Tsubakimoto Chain O NTN O Overseas SKFb.ST SKF U SZ Zhejiang Tianma N Domestic 6861 Keyence N SMC N THK N Fanuc N Nabtesco Corp N Yaskawa Electric Corporation N Overseas PH Parker Hannifin Corporation O NM NM 0179.HK Johnson Electric Hdg. O ABBN.VX ABB U SIEGn.DE Siemens O Domestic 6113 Amada N Mori Seiki N Okuma Corp O Avg Infrastructure-related Auto-related consumables FA-related Mach. Tools Code Company Name Rating EV/EBITDA PCFR 3/09 3/10 E 3/11 E 3/12 E 3/09 3/10 E 3/11 E 3/12 E Domestic 6301 Komatsu N Hitachi Construction Machinery N Kubota O Ebara N Daikin Industries N Makita N Overseas SZ Changsha Zoomlion Heavy Industry O SZ Guangxi Liugong Machinery O NM SS Sany Heavy Industry O CAT Caterpillar Inc. O DE Deere & Co. O BDK Black & Decker N NM NM NM NM NM SGEF.PA Vinci O NM NM NM NM Domestic 6471 NSK O JTEKT N Tsubakimoto Chain O NTN O Overseas SKFb.ST SKF U SZ Zhejiang Tianma N NM NM NM NM Domestic 6861 Keyence N SMC N THK N 9.8 NM Fanuc N Nabtesco Corp N Yaskawa Electric Corporation N Overseas PH Parker Hannifin Corporation O NM NM 0179.HK Johnson Electric Hdg. O NM NM NM NM ABBN.VX ABB U SIEGn.DE Siemens O Domestic 6113 Amada N 7.1 NM Mori Seiki N 8.6 NM NM Okuma Corp O 5.1 NM NM O = OUTPERFORM N = NEUTRAL U = UNDERPERFORM Avg (6473 / 6473 JP) 11

12 s41+% ÕÒÖÊÍÍÈÍÉ wé d Ê ( ) 3,000 2,500 d (~z) CS w ( z) 2,000 1,500 1, : Ò ÑÑÒÖ ÕÂCredit Suisse s41+% ÕÒÖ w = (ROI C/WACC x y - ªªª y )/ ( %) ROIC 3.26% WACC 4.69% y 523,948 ªªª y 40,543 w 1,010 «w 11 3 ÖÑÐÔÖÕÎÕ 4 ÂÖÑÐ ÔÖ Ö Ò 1.4  s Ì 3 2,117 s Ê 2$4 Ê Ê ~ ÓÑÒÖÏÖ 2$4 Ê (X) 3 ª ªªªPBR CS +1 STD -1 STD /4 93/4 94/4 95/4 96/4 97/4 98/4 99/4 00/4 01/4 02/4 03/4 04/4 05/4 06/4 07/4 08/4 09/4 10/4 11/4 12/4 : Ò ÑÑÒÖ ÕÂCredit Suisse (6473 / 6473 JP) 12

13 リスク リコール問題の早期解決に期待したい ÊÖÑÐÊÂÊ 4 (1) ÒÕÑi ÊÖÐ Ö ŠÊu  (2) ÒÕÑ ~ Ê Â (3) Ê Â (4) ÎÑÎÊ Â 3Ê ÇÎÑÎ ÏÑÎÓÎÉ ÆÉÆÍ ÊÖÑÐÊÂÊ 6 (1) Êi ËÊ Ç É Æ Ê É ÇÂ060 Ê Â ÇÊÉÌÂi y Ê ~Ê Â (2) Ê~ (3) Ê ƒêâ (4) i Õ Ï ÇÍÊÎÍÇu  (5) ÉÊÖÐ ÖÊ sâ (6) ÊÖÐ ÖÊy ÇÆÍ ÊÊÊy v ÇÈÍÍ s~ v «««01/3 02/3 03/3 04/3 05/3 06/3 07/3 08/3 09/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 10/3 396, , , , , ,349 1,025,297 1,157,594 1,017, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , y y 56,110 58,946 62,840 65,640 71,427 87, , , ,137 90,000 94, ,000 - y y ,258 3,409 11,643 21,547 30,370 44,625 64,631 77,650 22, ,000 43,000-4, NM NM 59.3 na , ,398 2,177 2,336-4,758-11,261-1,000-1, ,000 4,884 5,485 4,405 4,452 5,382 6,692 8,537 5,532 5,910 5,000 5,000 5,400 - y 1,131 1,304 1,610 1,720 1, y 4,690 4,172 4,004 4,239 3,984 4,515 6,201 10,290 17,171 6,000 6,000 6,000 - y 453 2, r -2,943-3,008-2,669-2,277-2,064-1,351-1,467-1,919-2,170-2,000-2,000-2, ,133 2,341 2,628 1,484 1,500 1,500 1,500-1,305 1,300 1,300 1,300-3,630 3,607 3,182 2,953 2,958 2,484 3,808 4,547 3,654 3,500 3,500 3,500-10,453 4,724 12,043 21,761 31,768 46,802 66,967 72,892 11,109-1,000 26,000 42,400-5, NM NM 63.1 na ,259-4,180 1,906-5,773-5,749-1,999-3,882-5,867-10,450-6,500-2,500-1,500-8, , ,155 6, , ,813 5,036 7,712 6,109 6,565 8,154 10,433 6,351 11,100 8,000 3,000 2, , ,949 15,986 26,019 44,803 63,085 67, ,500 23,500 40,900 - w Š -6,869 2,381 5,914 7,749 9,117 17,095 16,124 20,795 11, ,500 16, ,061 2, , ,106-1,872 8,281 7,870 16,451 27,704 44,900 43,446-11,954-6,300 14,000 23,800-11,000 NM NM NM NM NM NM 70.0 na ~ (6473 / 6473 JP) 13

14 s~ y s «««01/3 02/3 03/3 04/3 05/3 06/3 07/3 08/3 09/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 y 251, , , , , , , , , , , ,200 ª 38,206 43,238 24,695 44,755 35,861 50,203 73,174 63,558 53,206 97,509 92, ,200 ª 110, , , , , , , , , , , ,000 v 4,031 4, ,037 23,730 10,000 10,000 10,000 y 80,267 78,585 70,761 69,379 74, , , , , , , ,000 y 18,959 19,262 24,379 20,083 22,136 36,847 47,117 42,757 33,826 31,000 31,000 31,000 y 219, , , , , , , , , , , ,260 y 166, , , , , , , , , , , ,760 y 1,520 1,432 2,219 3,480 3,983 3,846 4,403 5,554 5,542 5,300 5,500 5,500 y y 51,210 51,977 49,670 53,962 56, , , ,539 84,869 88,000 88,000 88,000 yv 471, , , , , , , , , , , ,460 y 222, , , , , , , , , , , ,169 ªy 103,064 95,688 90, , , , , , , , , ,000 ª ª 79, ,076 86,245 86,531 68,648 76,731 94,514 90, , , , ,000 y 39,675 34,311 55,832 46,934 49,704 88, , ,046 75,439 72,769 72,769 72,169 y 140, , , , , , , , , , , ,000 ª 74,999 40,000 50,000 38,475 23,050 50,024 38,401 30,000 20, ,616 27,044 30,299 46,192 46,467 71,397 59,863 68,200 87,968 87,000 87,000 87,000 y 49,692 50,127 43,468 45,058 46,257 68,618 73,385 72,603 68,446 65,000 65,000 65, , yv 362, , , , , , , , , , , ,169 8,888 9,068 8,502 9,415 9,836 13,324 15,432 17,889 18,002 18,000 18,000 18,000 y 99,856 99, , , , , , , , , , ,291 y ªyv 471, , , , , , , , , , , ,460 ~uªy «« y « « « « dy y y y y « « ªªªªªª ªªªªªªª y i y « i y « « « ª ªªªªªªªªªªª « « s « ªªªªªªªªª 15,275 16,710 35,435 34,665 41,800 15,843 99,651 86,350 30,947 72,422 47,000 53,200-12,106-1,872 8,281 7,870 16,451 27,704 44,900 43,446-11,954-6,300 14,000 23,800 22,075 23,387 23,149 24,015 24,438 28,903 44,093 51,090 55,824 50,000 43,000 41,000 ~ y Š 5,306-4,805 4,005 2, ,764 10,658-8,186-12,923 28,722-10,000-11,600 vy 30,638 33,755 16,917 28,390 27, ,612 62,078 61,494 59,043 32,000 32,000 35,000 ªªªªªªªªªªªª -15,363-17,045 18,518 6,275 14, ,769 37,573 24,856-28,096 40,422 15,000 18,200 «ªª ªªªª«01/3 02/3 03/3 04/3 05/3 06/3 07/3 08/3 09/3 10/3 11/3 12/ (6473 / 6473 JP) 14

15 u ÈÍÉÆÍ Ê ABB (ABBN.VX, SFr 22.56, UNDERPERFORM [V], TP SFr 20.00, UNDERWEIGHT) AGCO Corp (AGCO, $35.27, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $40.00) Aichi Steel (5482, 385) Aisin Seiki Co (7259, 2,430) Amada (6113, 705, NEUTRAL, TP 540, OVERWEIGHT) Black & Decker (BDK, $75.36, NEUTRAL [V], TP $69.00) Caterpillar Inc. (CAT, $59.23, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $70.00) Changsha Zoomlion Heavy Industry ( SZ, Rmb 22.83, OUTPERFORM [V], TP Rmb 29.93) China High Speed Transmission Equipment (0658.HK, HK$16.76, NEUTRAL [V], TP HK$18.66) Cummins Inc. (CMI, $60.70, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $68.00) Daikin Industries (6367, 3,525, NEUTRAL, TP 3,700, OVERWEIGHT) Deere & Co. (DE, $58.50, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $70.00) Denso Corp (6902, 2,473) Eaton Corporation (ETN, $71.54, NEUTRAL, TP $78.00) Ebara (6361, 444, NEUTRAL [V], TP 350, OVERWEIGHT) Fanuc (6954, 8,890, NEUTRAL, TP 7,700, OVERWEIGHT) FCC (7296, 1,812) Guangxi Liugong Machinery ( SZ, Rmb 21.54, OUTPERFORM [V], TP Rmb 25.26) Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305, 1,989, NEUTRAL [V], TP 2,000, OVERWEIGHT) Illinois Tool Works, Inc. (ITW, $47.27, OUTPERFORM, TP $58.00) JTEKT (6473, 941, NEUTRAL [V], TP 1,000, OVERWEIGHT) Keihin (7251, 1,656) Keyence (6861, 19,400, NEUTRAL, TP 19,200, OVERWEIGHT) Komatsu (6301, 1,842, NEUTRAL, TP 1,900, OVERWEIGHT) Kubota (6326, 785, OUTPERFORM [V], TP 950, OVERWEIGHT) Makita (6586, 2,890, NEUTRAL [V], TP 3,200, OVERWEIGHT) Mitsubishi Electric (6503, 764, OUTPERFORM [V], TP 1,050, MARKET WEIGHT) Mori Seiki (6141, 970, NEUTRAL [V], TP 900, OVERWEIGHT) Musashi Seimitsu Industry (7220, 1,795) Nabtesco Corp (6268, 1,162, NEUTRAL [V], TP 1,050, OVERWEIGHT) Nidec (6594, 8,880, OUTPERFORM, TP 12,000, MARKET WEIGHT) Nissin Kogyo (7230, 1,397) NSK (6471, 658, OUTPERFORM [V], TP 860, OVERWEIGHT) NTN (6472, 390, OUTPERFORM [V], TP 500, OVERWEIGHT) Okuma Corp (6103, 553, OUTPERFORM [V], TP 550, OVERWEIGHT) Oshkosh Corporation (OSK, $36.97, NEUTRAL [V], TP $40.00) Paccar Inc (PCAR, $39.21, NEUTRAL [V], TP $38.00) Parker Hannifin Corporation (PH, $62.93, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $74.00) Sany Heavy Industry ( SS, Rmb 31.44, OUTPERFORM [V], TP Rmb 43.99) Schindler-Holding AG (SCHP.S, SFr 89.50, OUTPERFORM, TP SFr 95.00, UNDERWEIGHT) Shantui Construction Machinery ( SZ, Rmb 11.80, OUTPERFORM [V], TP Rmb 15.06) Showa Corp. (7274, 553) Siemens (SIEGn.DE, Eu 67.46, OUTPERFORM, TP Eu 78.00, UNDERWEIGHT) SKF (SKFb.ST, SKr , UNDERPERFORM, TP SKr , UNDERWEIGHT) SMC (6273, 11,550, NEUTRAL, TP 10,500, OVERWEIGHT) Stanley Electric (6923, 1,659) Takata Corporation (7312, 2,243) Terex Corporation (TEX, $22.72, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $30.00) THK (6481, 1,804, NEUTRAL [V], TP 1,500, OVERWEIGHT) Tokyo Electron (8035, 5,700, OUTPERFORM [V], TP 6,800, MARKET WEIGHT) Toyota Industries Corp (6201, 2,440) Toyota Motor Corp. (7203, 3,395) Tsubakimoto Chain (6371, 386, OUTPERFORM [V], TP 450, OVERWEIGHT) Vinci (SGEF.PA, Eu 41.90, OUTPERFORM, TP Eu 62.00, OVERWEIGHT) Yaskawa Electric Corporation (6506, 735, NEUTRAL [V], TP 750, OVERWEIGHT) Honda Motor Corp. ディスクロージャーアペンディクス ÐÖ ÓÖÊ uêòïñðö ÑÕ (6473 / 6473 JP) 15

16 { x ÊÂÈÍÌÉÊv ÊÉÆÉ w ÖÔ ÒÊ ÈÍÉÆÍuuÇÈËÉÊ væíëv Ê ÈÍÈÍÈÍÊ uuîêèâ ÈÍÈÍÊ Ç w ÖÔ ÒÊ ÈÍÉÆÍÌÉÊuuÊ ÊÌ ÊÌ Í ~ÈÉÆÍÈÂÌÉÌ ~ÈÊÆÇÉÎvÌÌÈ ÊÊÉÆÉÊÃu ÈÍÉÆÍÃÎÇÇÉÈÆ Ê~ ÊÂÂÆÍË yv Ê 6473 ( ) ( ) 23-Apr N 21-May Jun-08 / þ Ù X 1-Apr O X 4-Jun N 14-Sep U 10-Dec O Mar-07 9-May-07 9-Jul-07 Ê~ ÊÂÂÆÍË yv Ê 6471 ( ) ( ) / þ Ù 30-Jun-08 X 1-Apr O X 4-Jun Sep Dec Mar Sep-07 9-Nov-07 9-Jan-08 9-Mar N Jun-08 9-May-08 9-Jul-08 9-Sep-08 9-Nov-08 9-Jan O 1-Apr-09 9-Mar-09 9-May-09 N 9-Jul Sep U 9-Nov-09 O 9-Jan-10 ªª ªªªª/ ªªªª yv O=Outperform; N=Neutral; U=Underperform; R=Restricted; NR=Not Rated; NC=Not Covered 30-Jun Apr O Mar-07 9-May-07 9-Jul-07 9-Sep-07 9-Nov-07 9-Jan-08 9-Mar-08 9-May-08 9-Jul-08 9-Sep-08 9-Nov-08 9-Jan-09 9-Mar-09 9-May-09 9-Jul-09 9-Sep-09 9-Nov-09 9-Jan-10 ªª ªªªª/ ªªªª yv O=Outperform; N=Neutral; U=Underperform; R=Restricted; NR=Not Rated; NC=Not Covered w ÖÔ ÒÊÎÈÉÎÒÖÑÒÊÂCredit Suisse ÊdÎÊÈÌÉÈÍ ÂÊu Ê ÉÇ Î Ç É ÉÆÌÈÂÇÊdÊÊ Credit Suisse Ê y sêíéé ÉÇ ÌÍÉÆÌÈ ÎÒÖÑÒÊ yv Ê ÊÍÆÊ fèíéæìè Outperform: (O) Ò ÑÖÖÑ Ç 12 Ê ~Ô ÒÔ Ð* Î 10-15% ÈÍÍÖÑÐÊÍÉÉÊÈÍ ÍÉ ÈÍÍ Â Neutral (N): Ò ÑÖÖÑ Ç 12 Ê ~Ô ÒÔ Ð* Ì Ô ÒÔ ÐÊ ÈÉr10-15%ÊÖ Ñ ÉÈÍÉÈÍÍ Â Underperform (U): Ò ÑÖÖÑ Ç 12 Ê ~Ô ÒÔ Ð*Î10-15%ÆÍÆÊÈÍÍÉÈÍÍ Â *ÇÉÊ ~Ô ÒÔ Ð ÂÏ ÑÒÖÖÎÂÓÕ Ñ Ö ÒÂÂÆÍËÏÒÑÊÆÇÍ yv Ê ÈÊ Ê sê ÈÍÒ ÑÖÖÑ Ê h  2 ÎÒÖÑÒÏÓÖÒÑÕÓÓ Ñ** ÊÆÇÍÈÊ Êu }ÌÍÍÒ ÑÖÖÑ Ê Ê Outperform Ê Ì Ê ÂNeutral ÊÈÍÍÍÌ Ç Í ÂUnderperform Ê yêyèíç Ì ÊÆ ÎsÈÉÆÌÈ Ê ÉÆÉÆÌÈÂÆÍËÏÒÑÊ ÊÿÊÂÌ u ÊÍÉÉ vé fèíéò ÑÖÖÑ ÊÇÍÊÈÍÍÇÆÍÌÈ ÂÂÆÍËÎ ÇÎÑÎ ÊÆÇÍ yv ÊÂÈÊÊÒ ÑÖÖÑ É ~ÈÍ ÌÉÊÊÔ ÒÔ ÐÊÒ ÑÖÖÑ ÉÊ Ê ÉÆ ÉÆÌÈÂ Ê yv ÊÂÈÊÊÒ ÑÖÖÑ ÉÎÒÖÑÒÏÓÖÒÑÕÓÓ Ñ**ÉÊ Ê ÉÆÉÆÌÈÂÏ Ñ ÒÖÖÎÉÓÕ Ñ Ö ÒÊÉÆÉÊÂOutperform É Underperform Ê yv Ê fêæçí 10-15%ÎÂÎÒÖÑÒÊvxÈÍ ÖÑÐÊÈÉÇÉÉÈÍÈÍ 22%É 12%ÊeÇ ÆÉ ÈÉÆÌÈÂÊ NeutralÊ yv Ê fêæçí %É-10-15% ÎÂÎÒÖÑÒÊvxÈÍÖÑÐÊÈÉÇÉÉ22 É 12 ÊÈÍÈÍeÇ ÆÉÆÌÈ **ÎÒÖÑÒÏÓÖÒÑÕÓÓ ÑÊ ~ÈÍÑÐÑ ÉÎÒÖÑÒÇÏÓ ÈÍ ÊÍÉÉÈÍÌÈ (6473 / 6473 JP) 16

17 Restricted (R): Ê ÉÊÂÐÖÒÏ ÑÏÑÊÆÍË/ÌÉÊ wu ÊÍÍ yî ÌÿÊ ~ÇÉÇÊ ÇÊÍÌÈÂÇÊÊÊÉÊÂÐÖÒÏ ÑÏÑÇ y sî~s ÉÆÍÂÆÍËÂÈÊ ÊÊ ÊÆ ÍÎ ÌÌÈ ÔÖÒÏÖÒÏ Ï ÒÏÐ Ñ [V]: ~ 24 ÊÆÉ ÊÇÉÌ 8 ÊÇ 1 É 20%ÈÉ ÂÆÍÆÊÎÒ ÖÑÒÇÊÊÎÈÍ Î VolatileÉ fèìèâ ÎÒÖÑÒÊÏÓÖÒÑ ÕÓÓ ÑÊÏÏ ÒÊÎÒÖÑÒÊ yv É ÊÍÊÔ ÒÔ Ð**Ê ÈÍÏÓÖÒÑ Õ ÓÓ Ñ*ÊÓÔÏ Ô ÑÊ ÉÆÉÆÌÈ Overweight 12 ÊÊÔ ÒÔ ÐÎÎÏÒÓÔÏ ÕÈÍÉÈÍÍÏ ÑÑÒÖ Â Market Weight 12 ÊÊÔ ÒÔ ÐÉÊÓÔÏ Ô ÑÇÈÍÍÏ ÑÑÒÖ Â Underweight 12 ÊÊÔ ÒÔ ÐÎÎ Ñ ÓÔÏ ÕÈÍÉÈÍÍÏ ÑÑÒÖ Â *ÎÒÖÑÒÊÏÓÖÒÑ ÕÓÓ ÑÊ vñðñ ÉÎÒÖÑÒÇÏÓ ÈÍÈËÉÊÉÈÍÉÆÌÈ **ÊÔ ÒÔ ÐÊ ÊÔ ÐÒÒ Ï ÒÒÐÑ ÂÉÊ S&P500 Ê 12 ÊÖÑ Ê ÉÆÉÆÌÈ Credit Suisse Ê yv ÆÍË y sêš Ê ÐÖ ÓÖ Ö ÒÏ Ð ÒÏÑÒÖÓÕ ÑÕ * Outperform/Buy* 44% ( y sêš 60%) Neutral/Hold* 42% ( y sêš 60%) Underperform/Sell* 13% ( y sêš 54%) Restricted 2% *ÓÕ Õ ÐvÆÍËvÊ yv u Ê ÉÇÂÊ Outperform, Neutral, Underperform Ê yv ÊÈÍÈ ÍÂBuy, Hold, Sell ÊËËÈÍÌÊÉÊÉÉÆÌÈÂÉÉÈÂÊ yv ÊÔ ÑÉÈÍÉÆÍÉÌÂÊÉÊÆÍÌÈΠ~Ê fîççéèæ Âv Êz ÂÊ yââèê Êu Ê ÉÇÇÇÉÈÆ w ÖÔ ÒÊv~ÈÍÉÆÍuuÌÈÇÊ uêê Î ÆÍ h ÇÆÍ yâñðñ ÂÊÊÉÆ ÉÊÂ É ÍÍÍÊw ÖÔ ÒÊÎÒÔÒ ÒÎsÆÇÉÎ Credit Suisse ÊÉÈÉÆÌÈ ÍÇÊÇ ÂÇÉÉÂwuÎ Ç ÍÊÊÆw ÖÔ ÒÊÌÎ sèíçéî Credit Suisse ÊÉÈÉ ÆÌÈÂv ÊÉÆÉÊÂÔ ÕÔ Ñ ÊÃw ÖÔ ÒÊ ÍÍÊÊ ÈÍ Credit Suisse Ê Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research Î Ç É È Æ Credit Suisse ÊÆÇÊÍÎÒÓÏÑÌsÆÌÈΠÖÔ Ò Ê ~ Ê ÈÍv~ÊÂe Ê ÎÉÈÉ ÎÈÉÌÊÉÌÂÈÊÎÌÉÉ ÇÍÉÌÊÉÌÊÇÂÌÉÈÊÊÉÌÊÈÍÇÉÊÉÇÌÈΠÊÊÉÆÉÊÃu ÈÍÉÆÍÃÎÇÇÉÈÆ : : Ê 1,000 Ê ÈÉÊÂÊÆÍ ROIC ÕÒÖ ÖÑÐÔÖÕÎÕ 4%ÂÖÑÐÔÖ Ö Ò 1.4%ÂWACC 4.7% Ê 11 3 dî ÉÊÌÉ sçê dê ÈÍ ~ÇÈÍÍÌÉÂÒ ÕÑi É PBR=1 Î ˆÊ ÉÈÍÂÏ ÔÖÏÒ PER Ê 23 EPS 43.6  PBR Ê 1.0 BPS ÖÑÐ: Ê 1,000 Ê ÈÍÖÑÐÊ ÒÕÑi ÊÖÐ Ö ŠÊu  2 ÒÕ Ñ ~ Ê Â 3 Ê Â 4 ÎÑÎÊ 3Q Ê 76 ÇÎÑÎ ÏÑÎÓÎ É ÆÉÆÍ Âÿ ÂÖÑÐÊ 1 Êi ËÊ Ç 81 É Æ Ê 62 É ÇÂNTN Ê 69 ÉÌÂi y Ê ~Ê Â 2 Ê~ 3 Ê ƒêâ 4 i Õ Ï ÇÍÊÎÍÇu  5 ÉÊÖÐ ÖÊ sâ 6 ÊÖÐ Öy ÇÆÍ ÊÊÊy v ÇÈÍÍÇÉÂÊÊÂÇÍÍÊu ÊÍÍÂÊÊÇÍ ÈÍ h ÇÆÍ : : Ê 12 Ê 860 Ê ÈÉÊÂ11 3 dî ROIC ÕÒÖÊÈÉv Â840 ÇÍ 860 Ë Ç ÇÍÂ Ï ÔÖÏÒ PER Ê 29.8 EPS28.88  PBR Ê 1.9 BPS462.7  EV/EBITDA Ê 9.8 ÂSKF ÉÊ ÊÆÆÉÂ Ê ÈÊÊÎÈÍÉÂwhÊÉfÆÍ ÖÑÐ: Ê 860 Ê ÈÍÖÑÐÊ 1 ÒÕÑ ŠÊÉ dëê ŠÇÈÍÇÉ 2 ÊÊ ÈÉÂÊi y ÊÇÈÍÇÉ 3 Ö ÒÇÊÊ Í ÍÇÉ 4 ÊÊ ÇÎÉÈÉ ÇÊy ÇÉÆÍÇÉÂÿ ÂÖÑÐÊ 1 ƒ ÇÊÈÍÇÉ ÉÊÊÒ 1 ÊÎ dêdí}îé  2 ÒÕ Ñ ŠÊ Éi y i Ê ÇŠÈÍÇÉ 3 wêæíi y Ê ~  4 Ì v Ç uêñòöïê  5 i Õ Ï ÇÍÊÇu ÇÉÆÍÇÉÂÊÊ (6473 / 6473 JP) 17

18 ÊÌÖÑÐÊ É~ ÈÉÆÍ wê fê ÈÉÊÂÒÏÑÐÖ ÑÕ ÊÏÏÔÐÏÒ ÎÇÇÉÈÆÂ Ê uêòïñðö ÑÕ w ÖÔ ÒÎÈÍÉÑ ÏÔ ÖÊÆÊÆÇÍÌÈÉÊ w ÖÔ ÒÇÍ ÈÍÆÇÊÍ ŠÊÉÆÉ ÌÂÑ ÏÔ ÖÊÔÏÒ ÑÕÖ ÎÒÓÏÐ ÊÇ~ ÇÉÈÆ ÖÔ ÒÊÊ ÍÉÉÎÒÖÑÒÊ~ 12 ÊÊ 6473, 6471 Ê z Îu ÈÉÆÌÈΠÿïòñêv ËÊ Ê Ê vé ÈÍÉÆÌÈ NVS-- x RVS--x SVS--x  Credit Suisse Ê ~ÉÊÆÏÒÑÊÏ ÔÑÒÕ ÒÒÏ Ö ÇÍ ÖÔ ÒÎÈÍÉÊÂCredit Suisse Ê ~ÉÊÆÏÒÑÊÏ ÔÑÒÕ ÒÒÏ Ö Çi ÖÔ ÒÊÆÆÉu ÈÍÉÆÍ Ç ÖÔ ÒÊ Ì ÍÉÆÊÆ h ÊÆÍÇÉÎÇÆÇÇÉÈÆ Credit Suisse Securities (Canada), Inc ÊÖÐ ÒÊÊ ÈÍÂÊÉÇÌÈÉÊ ÎÇÇÉÈÆ ÊÊ ÊÊ IFRS Ê ÈÉÇÆÍÌÈ ABBN.VX, 6141, SCHP.S, SIEGn.DE, SKFb.ST. Credit Suisse Ê vöô Ò s É vöô ÒÊ yêêééæíêéæéô ÐÒÒÕ Ï ÌÈÇÊÖ ÐÏÒÏÒÏ ÔÖÓÏÑ ÉÈ ÊÇÊÆÍÉÆÍÉÌÂÎ vèíìêéêæíìèîâ ÊÂv ÊÈÊ ÆÉÈÍÉ ÊÈÊŠÉÊÍÌÈ ÇÊw ÖÔ ÒÇÊ ~ÊÈÍÎÒÖÑÒÊÍÉÉÌÉÊÈÊÿÇÈÍ ÉÉÇ Í ÍÊÆÆÉÂÊÊ ~ÊÈÍÎÒÖÑÒ Ð ÒÖÓÕ Ñ Ê ÈÍ uê ÉÊ ÍÌÈ vê ÈÊ ~ÊÈÍÎÒÖÑÒÊÂÖÐ ÒÎÒÖÑÒÉÈÉ FINRA Ê ƒèíéæíèâöð ÒÎÒÖÑÒy Î FINRA ÇÍ ÆÍÍÉÆÌÈÎÂÊ ÈÊ ~ÊÈÍÎÒÖÑÒÊ CSSU Ê ÉÊÊÇÂÇÊÉÌ wyéê uâîòöñòê Ê us ÂÎÒÖÑÒÇÈÍÉÊv Îu ÈÍ NASD u 2711 Ë NYSE u 472 ÊyÉÊÍÊÆÇÆÍÌÈ {ÊÂÊ ~ÉÆÍÐÖÒÏ ÑÏÑv Ê ÈÍÉÆÍÖÐ ÒÎÒÖÑÒÉÈ x ÊÂÊ ~ÉÆÍÐÖÒÏ ÑÏÑv Ê ÈÍÉÆÍÖÐ ÒÎÒÖÑÒÉÈ w ÖÔ ÒÉu ÈÍÉÆÍÈÊ ÊÉÆÉÊ Credit Suisse Ê ÊÉÇÌÈÉÊ ÎÇÂÌÉÊ ÌÉÇ~ ŠÆÌÈÂÌÉ ÖÔ Ò ÊÎiÈÌÈÉÎÒÖÑÒÂÌÉÊÎÑÑÑ ÒÊÇ~ ÎÆÉÉÇÍÊwÉÆ ÆiÈÌÈÂ Ô ÑÊ Ç 7267, 3,110 (6473 / 6473 JP) 18

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