1: 合計特殊出生率 出生率の推移 暦年 アメリカドイツフランス スウェーデン日本 Apps and Re
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1 1 1 Galor and Weil (1996) (Sleebos, 2003) 2-1, koba@econ.kobe-u.ac.jp 1
2 1: 合計特殊出生率 出生率の推移 暦年 アメリカドイツフランス スウェーデン日本 Apps and Rees (2004) Martínez and Iza (2004) (2002) (2000) (1999) (1994) (1998) (1998) (2003) 20% % 2
3 (2004, 2005) ,
4 2 3 2: 食事の用意 週あたり ( 回数 ) 食事の後片付け 買い物 洗濯 掃除 子供と遊ぶ 子供の世話 夫 妻 , 1, 0, 1, % 3 4
5 58.2% 1 (Galor and Weil, 1996) Sleebos (2003) OECD 5
6 1: [0.15] [0.29] [0.36] [0.48] [2.14]** [2.17]** [1.75]* [1.77]* [1.41] [1.45] [1.12] [1.14] [0.95] [0.93] [0.89] [0.87] [1.47] [1.45] [1.34] [1.33] [1.29] [1.25] [1.04] [1.02] [12.25]*** [12.33]*** [12.02]*** [12.12]*** [4.03]*** [1.90]* [3.91]*** [1.99]** [0.51] [0.50] [0.18] [0.18] [0.44] [0.43] [0.91] [0.93] [1.09] [1.10] [0.43] [0.43] [3.54]*** [3.54]*** [0.46] [0.58] [0.17] [0.36] [0.53] [0.34] z *10% **5% ***1% 6
7 : (1983) K x k z = K k=1 λ kx k λ k λ k = arg max λ k V (z) s.t. K λ 2 k = 1 k=1 λ k z V (z) x 4 z x K K (x 1, x 2,..., x K ) K K 7
8 1 1 3:
9 4: [0.36] [0.48] [0.54] [0.65] [1.75]* [1.77]* [1.87]* [1.90]* [1.12] [1.14] [1.20] [1.22] [0.89] [0.87] [0.93] [0.90] [1.34] [1.33] [1.43] [1.42] [1.04] [1.02] [1.13] [1.10] [12.02]*** [12.12]*** [12.10]*** [12.18]*** [3.91]*** [1.99]** [3.83]*** [1.89]* [3.39]*** [3.38]*** [3.33]*** [3.32]*** [2.67]*** [2.68]*** [2.57]** [2.57]** [0.52] [0.51] [0.53] [0.53] [1.93]* [1.92]* [1.50] [1.51] [0.52] [0.54] [0.58] [0.55] [0.36] [0.28] [0.34] [0.37] z *10% **5% ***1% 9
10 Willis (1973) Gronau (1976) Willis Gronau 3.1 M F c s l M, l F u u = c + s + v(l M, l F ). (1) v v v l M > 0, > 0, 2 v < 0, 2 v l F l 2 M l 2 F < 0 1 n h l w M, w F c = w M n M + w F n F. (2) s h M h F CES s = f(h M, h F ) = (h ρ M + hρ F ) 1 ρ, ρ < 1. (3) ρ = n M n M 10
11 max u = c + s + v(l M, l F ), n M,n F,h M,h F s.t. c = w M n M + w F n F, s = f(h M, h F ) = (h ρ M + hρ F ) 1 ρ, l M = 1 n M h M, l F = 1 n F h F, n M n M. w M = v l M, w F = v l F, f = v, h M l M f h F = v l F. w M = f w F = f h m h f CES h M h F = ( wm w F h M hf ) σ. (4) σ 1 1 ρ 3.1. w F = v l F, w M < v, n M = n M, l M f = v f, = v. h M l M l F h F h M h F < ( wm w F ) σ. (5) h M = 1 n M l M lm n M = n M 11
12 3.2. (4)
13 5: OLS [4.16]*** [0.02] [4.74]*** [5.46]*** [3.69]*** [5.93]*** [5.45]*** [2.01]** [3.55]*** [0.28] [0.25] [0.55] [1.01] [0.70] [1.31] [1.56] [0.03] [0.58] [0.17] [0.88] [0.81] [0.86] [0.55] [0.27] [0.79] [0.62] [0.62] [0.24] [0.88] [0.01] [0.82] [0.15] [0.81] [1.39] [0.63] [0.77] [1.74]* [1.96]* [0.92] [0.11] [1.51] [0.74] [1.60] [3.02]*** [2.84]*** [0.03] [3.78]*** [0.01] [0.33] [0.72] [1.04] [0.45] [3.29]*** [1.87]* [1.77]* [0.52] [2.85]*** [2.52]** [0.90] [0.91] [2.23]** [0.63] [1.04] [0.13] [2.07]** [1.34] [1.47] [0.48] [0.60] [0.86] [0.80] [2.30]** [1.32] [0.51] [2.04]** [2.49]** [2.57]** [2.69]*** [1.08] [0.01] [1.17] [1.77]* [0.50] [4.60]*** [4.87]*** [6.73]*** [4.19]*** [6.11]*** [5.49]*** [3.83]*** t *10% **5% ***1% 13
14 5 (4) 6 14
15 % 0.57% (, 2006) SSJ
16 6: OLS [0.20] [0.23] [0.73] [0.71] Yes [1.73]* No [3.67]*** [1.93]* [1.39] [0.25] [0.00] [0.55] t *10% **5% ***1% 16
17 Apps, P. and R. Rees (2004) Fertility, Taxation and Family Policy, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, No. 4, pp Galor, O. and D. Weil (1996) The Gender Gap, Fertility and Grouth, American Economic Review, Vol. 86, No. 3, pp Gronau, R. (1976) Leisure, Home Production and Work The Theory of The Allocation of Time Revisited. NBER Working Paper No Martínez, D. and A. Iza (2004) Skill Premium Effects on Fertility and Female Labor Force Supply, Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 17, pp Sleebos, J. E. (2003) Low Fertility Rates in OECD Countries: Facts and Policy Responces. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papses No.15. Willis, R. J. (1973) A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 81, pp. S14 S64. (2000) (1998) (1999) (2003) (1983) (1994) (2004) (2005) 4 17
18 (2006) Life Design Report Watching (2002) 10 (1998)
448 Vol. 44 No 図
Spring 09 447 概要 2004 1 2 I はじめに 19 2007 1. 34 2006 1. 32 90 1 90 Galor and Weil 1996 1996 1999 90 Sleebos 2003 Apps and Rees 2004 Martínez and Iza 2004 448 Vol. 44 No. 4 2. 20 2. 00 1. 80 1. 60 1. 40
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