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1 21

2 Japan s Labor Force in the Year

3 (1) 1 (2) (3)

4 consensus estimate 21 (1995) (1997) (estimation) calibration (1) (2) 2 2 (1) (2) calibration Journal of Economic Perspective, Vol. 10 No. 1 Computational Experiments in Macroeconomics - 2 -

5 1 2 3 consensus estimate Shimada and Higuchi(1985) - 3 -

6 2.1 l = / L = Lmi + L i = l N + l i i mi mi fi fi i fi N l % %

7 % % 12.3% 24.1% 47.0% 22.9% (1997) (1995) (1997) l 4 (1998) l 4 (1995) (1995) (1997) - 5 -

8 ( ) (1997 ) (1995) (1997) (1998) (1997) (1995)

9 3.1 (1995) (1997) (1995) (1997)

10 M (1995) 0.31 (1997) (1995) (1997)

11 1 (1995) (1997) (1995) (1997) (1996) (1997) (1998) (1997) 10 (1995)

12 (1997) (1998) (1995) (1995) (1995) (1997) (1998) 28,200 12,260 38, , (1995)

13 16 (1995) (1995) 6.1 (1997) (1995) (1997) (1986) (1997) (1995) (1997) (1997)

14 (1986) (1997) (1986) (1986) (1989) (1995) (1997)

15 3.4 calibration (1991) (1997) 60 (1997) (1997)

16 20 20 Stock and Wise(1990a,b)

17

18 (1996) (1981), (1997) 33 2 Autumn (1995) (1997) 33 3 Winter, (1986) (1989) (1991), (1998) (1998) Shimada, Haruo and Yoshio Higuchi (1985), An Analysis of Trends in Female Labor Force Participation in Japan, Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 3, No. 1, Part 2, January, pp. S355-S374. (1984) 19 4 Spring, (1998) Stock, James H., and David A. Wise (1990a), Pensions, the Option Value of Work, and Retirement, Econometrica, Vol. 58, No. 5, November, pp

19 and (1990b), The Pension Inducement to Retire: An Option Value Analysis, in David A. Wise ed., Issues in Economics of Aging, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, pp Tachibanaki, Toshiaki and Keiko Shimono (1985), Labor Supply of the Elderly: Their Desires and Realities about Full-time Jobs, Part-time Jobs, Self-employed Jobs or Retirement, (1990) (1995) 2020 (1997)

遺産相続、学歴及び退職金の決定要因に関する実証分析 『家族関係、就労、退職金及び教育・資産の世代間移転に関する世帯アンケート調査』

遺産相続、学歴及び退職金の決定要因に関する実証分析 『家族関係、就労、退職金及び教育・資産の世代間移転に関する世帯アンケート調査』 2-1. (2-1 ) (2-2 ) (2-3 ) (Hayashi [1986]Dekle [1989]Barthold and Ito [1992] [1996]Campbell [1997] [1998]Shimono and Ishikawa [2002]Shimono and Otsuki [2006] [2008]Horioka [2009]) 1 2-1-1 2-1-1-1 8 (1.

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