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2 () () (CSR) () PML(Probable Maximum Loss) () (BCP) () () i
3 SFAS () SFAS IASB FASB (DD) ii
4 PML PML J-REIT PML WCE CAT BCP iii
5 29 IAS SFAS DD iv
6 () 6 4 () 1
7 () 2
8 Hyanes ()(chance of damage or loss) (uncertainty) (assumption of a risk) 2 Haynes 3 4 Risk Magnitude of hazard Probability (loss only risk) (loss or gain risk) pp pp (risk)(peril)(hazard) " --" () 2005 p.14 3
9 5 ()( ) 6 () (SOX ) ( SOX ) SOX (PCAOB: Public Company Accounting Oversight Board) CEO CFO pp
10 7 SOX ( SOX ) SOX () () p pp pp
11 2 10 ART(Alternative Risk Transfer) ,000 (1 ) (CSR:Corporate Social Responsibility) 10 () ( 4 ) 2006 p.8 11 pp pp pp
12 [44] :[25]p () 7
13 (2000 ) (2001 ) [20]
14 () () ( 5 ) 2006 pp p.2 18 pp.3-4 9
15 (4 ) (4 ) (4 ) (4 ) [60]p40 (a) (b) (c) pp
16 (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) 20 () 1.4. (CSR) (CSR:Corporate Social Responsibility) CSR CSR 21 CSR CSR pp pp
17 CSR CSR 1.5. () () () (,B/S)(P/L)(C/F) ( ) 3 100%() () () ( 4 ) 2006 pp "" 12
18 2 25 (P/L)P/L () Vol.46 No pp
19 Y = F ( K, L) Y = KF ( K, L) + LF ( K, L) K K L Y PML(Probable Maximum Loss) 26 ( 3 ) 2006 pp.1-2 L 14
20 PML(Probable Maximum Loss) PML 41 PML PML PML PML (%) = PML PML 0 100PML 5 PML WEB [14] 1981 PML PML 20PML 27 (PML) 15tec_terms/backnumber_tec_terms.html 15
21 PML 20 PML PML PML 28 (1) PML PML PML PML PML PML PML 6 PML PML PML[29] (2) J-REIT PML J-REIT() 28 (PML) 15tec_terms/backnumber_tec_terms.html 29 PML portfolio.html 16
22 (J-REIT) CMBS(Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities) 30 J-REIT PML 15% PML 10% 7 J-REIT PML 10% J-REIT PML J-REIT PML J-REIT PML (7 ) 7 J-REIT PML (3) PML PML ASTM(American Society for Testing 30 (J-REIT) 2001 p.6 17
23 Materials)1999 E2026 PML PML SL(Scenario Loss:) SEL(Scenario Expected Loss:) SUL(Scenario Upper Loss:) 90 10% PL(Probable Loss:) PL N N 31 PML S(Scenario) P(Probable) WCE(Worst Conditional Expectation) Gordon Woo a La A B La 8 A B a La a A L La WCE(Worst Conditional Expectation) WCE a N pp
24 N () N Na M WCEa M 1,000 1/100 M (105,106,107,108,110,112,115,117,120,130) WCE La WCE a (La,a) La A B [34]p km pp
25 (9) [28]p20 20
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26 34 10 :[35] ( ) pp
27 BCP(Business Continuity Plan) () (DBJ) DBJ NEC 6 11 :[60]p ryoritsu/quake/tekiyou.html pp
28 ( 12 )90% A B A B B 12 :[62]p () (13 ) 34% (CSR)CSR CSR 23
29 37 CSR 13 :[60]p pp
30 % ( ) 1 13% CAT 14 :[61]p11 25
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31 15 :[61]p9 (1) () 1 5 (
32 ) (5 ) ,118 13, % 5% 5 8,778 41,222 1 ( 61.7 ) 38 (2) (3) () () () pp pp
33 () 2 () :[75]p67 4,500 5, pp
34 80 () 1970 (4) 41 ( )() () 2 (5) (Contingent Debt Facility) (CDF:Contingent Debt Facility CDF () ( 4 ) 2006 pp
35 17 () () SPC (, ) (RMS) : [64] UFJ 3 "EQ-LINE" EQ-LINE 18 (=RMS) EQ-Line() A B C UFJ SPC (, ) : [65] EQ-LINE 30
36 UFJ UFJ 43 (6) CAT CAT (Catastrophe Risk) () CAT JA CAT (SPC) + AAA :[60]p pp
37 SPC (7) () () () Enron Koch collar 1999 (WRMA:Weather Risk Management Association) ()() pp [ 3 ] 2006 pp pp
38 33 20 [75]p11
39 2.4. (BCP) (BCP:Business Continuity Plan) BCP BCP BCP BCP :(BC)[37]p3 49 (BCP) TRC EYE vol p.1 34
40 ( 1-1.2,-1.3) () ( 2 )
41 () () 3 () REIT PML ( 3 ) 3.2. () (a) (b) (c) (d) (a) 2 (2.1 ) (b)() () () (c) 36
42 PML (d) () 22 37
43 38 22 CF YES CF NO : () () () ( 3-3.2)() ()
44 PML PML () 23 Y X :[3]p () 50 X Y X Y =0 =1 =-1 39
45 () 1990 () () () ()() 1990 ( 24) ( 2 2.1) 51 40
46 :[76]p33 4 (4 ) () ()
47 10%() () DBJ ( 2.3 ) 42
48 (a) (b) (c) (d) 43
49
50 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (a) (b) (c) 53 R.G 2005 pp pp
51 () () ( ) ( 57 )( 18) ( 18) pp pp
52 3 (a) (b) (c) :[72]p205 57,, 2001 pp , 2005 pp
53 :[36]p pp pp
54 () pp pp pp
55 % 90% 10% 95% 100% pp pp
56 % 6, :[23] () or.jp/japanese/policy/2006/065/honbun.html#part singikai/ zeicho/top.htm
57 SFAS () () SFAS 143 (Accounting for Asset Retirement Obligations) SFAS (Accounting for Obligations Associated with the Retirement of Long-Lived Assets) (Accounting for Certain Liabilities Related to Closure or Removal of Long-Lived Assets) (decommissioning costs) 7 (Using Cash Flow Information and Present Value in Accounting Measurements) () pp
58 ( fair value) (expected present value technique) SFAS SFAS 143 (Accounting for Asset Retirement Obligations) 2000 SFAC 6 SFAS SFAS 143 () (a)(b)(c) 73 SFAS pp pp pp (promissory estoppel) 53
59 SFAC 6 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) SFAS 143 (a) (b) SOP(Statement of Position)96-1 ( )(Environmental Remediation Liabilities (including Auditing Guidance)) () SFAS SFAS 143 SFAS "" 2005 pp "" 2006 pp
60 SFAS 143 () (a) (b) (a) (c) (d) IASB IAS 37 (Provisions, Contingent Liabilities and Contingent Asset) IAS 37 (IAS37-10) pp
61 (IAS37-10) (IAS37-10) (IAS37-12) IAS37 (IAS37-12) (IAS37-12) (IAS ) (a) () (b) (probable) (c) (IAS37-13) (a) (b) ( ) 77 IAS ) ( ) pp.6-8,
62 ( ) ( ) ( ) (a) (b) NO NO YES YES NO YES YES NO NO () YES :IAS 37 B[18] 78 p.55 57
63 29 IAS 37 ) () ) ) () (1) (2) IAS36 IAS IAS11 IAS12 IAS17 IAS19 (1) (2) :[15]p FASB SFAS 5 (Accounting for contingencies) SFAS 5 (SFAS5-1) SFAS 5 79 (a) (probable) pp SFAS (a) probable: 58
64 (b) (SFAS5-8) (a) probable (b) (a)(b) (reasonable possibility) SFAS 5 ) () ) ) () () SAPB8 SAPB126-8 SAPB25 () :[15]p5 SFAS 5 (a) (b) (b) reasonable possible: remote likely (c) remote: 3 81 pp pp
65 (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) ( 57 4 ) () ( ) ( 17 )( )
66 83 ( % kW (1985 ) 110 kw (BWR) 178 (PWR) 192 (1995 ) ( 31) () kessan18.html 85 nuclear00.htm
67 31 : [7] ,481 ()( ) ,000 62
68 No
69 () () () ( ) () () () pp
70 SFAS 143 SFAC 7 90 (2004.9) FASBIASB FASB () SFAS 143 IASB IAS 37 IAS 19 () FASB IASB 90 ( ) pp
71 FASB 32 () FASB () IASB :[48]p8,11, (DD) M&A M&A MBO LBO M&A M&A (DD)DD DD 66
72 DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD (B/S) DD B/S B/S M&A B/S M&A 92,93 33 DD (,) DD DD DD DD :[26]p74 M&A DD B/S B/S DD B/S B/S 2 B/S DD 92 DD pp
73 M&A FASB SFAC 5 (Recognition and Measurement in Financial Statements of Business Enterprises) FASB (comprehensive income) () (SFAC 5 ) () FASB FASB 1996 FASB 1997 SFAS 130 (Reporting Comprehensive Income) SFAS 130 (other comprehensive income) () SFAS
74 (= ) () 1999 (FASB1999,25 )IASB ( ) (IASB2005,128 ) SFAC 7 ()FASB (FASB2000,25,27 )IASB(2005) (IASB2005,416 ) ()(= )() ()(= ) R.G 2005 pp pp
75 34 :--[13]p B/S [] [COF] () [CIF] [CIF] B/S [] [CIF] () [COF] () () COFCash Out Flow CIFCash In Flow B/SCIFCOF :--[13]p () (active market) FASB 70
76 ()( ) 3 ( ) 2 (traditional approach) V ()CF m ( ) r () CFm V = t ( 1+ r) (expected cash flow approach) () p i ()CF i () Σpi CFi V = t ( 1+ r) µ () r f () V Σpi CF µ = ( 1+ r i t f ) Vol.56 No.12 pp
77 ( )() 2 () A 300 B B () A X ()A 315 A X X A A X A No.2003-J-17 pp
78 3.6. IAS 37 SFAS 5 ( 18) SFAS 5 IAS 37 ( 18)(probable) SFAS 37 ( 18)IAS pp
79 74 36 :[19]p10-11
80 [1] R.G M.W.J.M.,,, 2005 [2], [ 3 ],, 2006 [3],,, 2005 [4],, 54, 2006 [5],,, 1998 [6],,,, 2004, Vol.56, No.12, [7] EDINET, [8],,, 2006 [9],,,, 2007 [10], (J-REIT),, 2001 [11],,, [12],, () ( 4 ), 2006 [13], --,,, [14],, [15],,, 2006 [16],,, 1999 [17], 18 3,, co.jp/ir/brief/h18/kessan18.html [18], (IFRSs)2004,, 2005 [19],,, 2004 [20],,, index.html [21], --, (),
81 [22],, ( 5 )2006 [23],, 2006, hikaku.htm [24],, 2006, mof.go.jp/singikai/zeicho/top.htm [25], - -,, 2006 [26],, 1,, 2006 [27],, policy/nuclear/, nuclear00.htm [28],,, ( ) [29], PML, portfolio.html [30],,, 23 2, 2004 [31], -, No.2883, 2005 [32],,, 2005 [33], --,, 2005 [34], 5, 2002 [35], --, service/ryoritsu/quake/tekiyou.html [36],,, [37], (BC), 2006 [38],,, 2005 [39],, 2006 [40], (BCP), TRC, EYE, vol.85, 2006 [41],, [42],,, No.2003-J-17 [43],,,, Vol.46, No.8, 1994 [44],,,
82 [45], , [46],, ( ) 53, 2001 [47], --, 74, 2004 [48],,, 2004 [49], --,,, [50],,, 2006 [51],,, 2005 [52],, [53], 10, [54],, [55],, [56], 19, 2006, keidanren.or.jp/japanese/policy/2006/065/honbun.html#part2 [57], (), index.htm [58], (PML), 15tec_terms/backnumber_tec_terms.html, [59],, [60], --, [61],, 2006 [62],, 2005 [63], (2)--,,, 2005 [64],,, [65],,, [66],,, 1995 [67],,, [68], Part1, 44 6,
83 [69],,,, [70], --,,, Vol.46 No [71],,,,, 2001 [72],,, 2002 [73],,, 2000 [74],,, , [75], --,, 2006 [76],,,
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