商学 65‐5☆/14.植田

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1 708

2 hedge speculative ponzi G Π DS G Πt DSt t 1,2,...,n 1 G Πt DSt 1 t j 2 G Πt DSt j 1 t n 3

3 710 G Πt DSt 1 t n 1 4 G Πt DSt t n 5 2 Minsky Foley 2003 Charles 2008 a Lima and Meirelles 2007 Meirelles and Lima 2006 Nishi 2011! R L I F 6! R L I F 33! L I F R g r K il 7 g r i g I/K, r R/K,

4 711 F il K 3 δ L/K R"I F! or L!0 r iδ"g 8 R I F or! I L 0 r iδ g 9 R F or! L I r iδ K δ 3

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6 ! Minsky

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8 Minsky V1 1 Schumpeter 1939 Minsky

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10 Mortgage Bank

11 718 FRB 2000 IT FRB 6.5 FF FRB Taylor Rule Taylor Rule Taylor 1993 FF GDP FF Marc 2012 Taylor Rule FF Taylor Rule FF FRB, Flow of Fund

12 719 4 Tymoigne Taylor Rule Marc 2012 FF 4!

13 720 RMBS Residential Mortgage Backed Securities CDO Collateral Debt Obligation Senior Mezzanine Equity 3 Tranche CDO ABS Asset Backed Securities MBS 60 7 ABS ABS http : //

14 721 7 ABS http : // 5 6 FRB ABS BIS

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16 723 3 SIV Structured Investment Vehicle SIV SIV SIV ABCP Asset Backed Commercial Paper SIV SIV ABCP SIV SIV RMBS CDO ABCP SIV

17 724 8 Liquid Assets Mortgage+ Consumer Debt Mortgage Debt (dashed) Net Liquid Assets = Liquid Assest -All Debt Duca and Muellbauer SIV 9 SIV SIV

18 725 9 Rosen BIS

19 Inerest Only Payment Option ARM FDIC Inerest Only ARM Payment Option Adjustable Rate Mortgage ARM 10 ARM Interest Only FRM : Fixed Rate Mortgage Adustable Rate Mortgage 2007 ARM FRM ARM 11

20 Tymoigne 2009 FRM ARM Alt- A Tail Risk

21

22 pp pp Charles, S a Corporate Debt, Variable Retention Rate and the Appearance of Financial Fragility, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol.32, No.5, pp Charles, S b A Post Keynesian Model of Accumulation with a Minskyan Financial Strucure, Review of Political Economy, Vol.20, No.3, pp Duca, J. and J. Muellbauer 2012 Tobin Lives : Integrating Evolving Credit Market Architecture into Flow of Funds Based Macro Models Discussion Paper Series, No.622, Department of Economics, University of Oxford. FDIC 2006 FDIC Outlook, Summer FDIC 2013 Quarterly Banking Profile, March 2013 Foley, D Liquidity-Profit Rate Cycle in a Capitalist Economy, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol.8, No.3, pp Foley, D Financial Fragility in Developing Economies, in A. K. Dutt and J. Ros eds, Development Economics and Structuralist Macroeconomics, Edward Elgar, pp FRB 2013 Dodd Frank Act Stress Test 2013 : Supervisory Stress Test Methodology and Results, March Keen, S Household Debt : The Final Stage in an Artificially Extended Ponzi Bubble, Australian

23 730 Economic Review, Vol.42, No.3, pp Lima, G. T and A, Meirelles 2007 Macrodynamics of Debt Regimes, Financial Instability and Growth, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol.31, No.4, pp Marc, L Evaluating the Current Stance of Monetary Policy Using a Taylor Rule, Congressional Research Service, Meirelles, A. and G. T. Lima 2006 Debt, Financial Fragility and Economic Growth : A Post Keynesian Macromodel, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Vol.29, No.1, pp Minsky, H. P John Maynard Keynes, Columbia University Press 1988 Minsky, H. P Can It Happen Again?, M. E. Sharpe Inc 1988 Minsky, H. P Stabilizing an Unstable Economy, Yale University 1989 Nishi H A Dynamic Analysis of Debt-Led and Debt-Burned Growth Regimes with Minskian Financial Structure, Metroeconomica, Vol.63, No.4, pp Rosen, R. J Competition in Mortgage Markets ; The Effect of Lender type on Loan Characteristics, Economic Perspectives 1 Q, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Schumpeter, J. A The Theory of Economic Development, Duncker & Humblot Schumpeter, J. A BUSINESS CYCLES, McGraw-Hill 1958 Schumpeter, J. A Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Harper & Brothers Taylor, J. B Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39. Taylor, J. B A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rule, NBER Working Paper Series, No Toporowski, J Financial Markets and Financial Fragility, Edward Elgar Publishing. Tymoigne, E The U. S. Mortgage Crisis : Subprime or Sysytematic?, in Gregoriou, G. N. ed, Banking Crisis Handbook, CRC Press Inc. Tymoigne, E Detecting Ponzi Finance : An Evolutionary Approach to the Measure of Financial Fragility, Working Paper No.605, Levy Economics Institute. Tymoigne,E.andWray,L.R The Rise and Fall of Money Manager Capital Minsky s Capitalism- Minsky s Half Century from World War Two to the Great Recession, Routledge.

商学 66‐6☆/7.松浦

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