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1 77 割引現在価値モデルの理論と有効性 Theory and Efficiency of Discounted Present Value Model Toru Katori FCF EVA FCF EVA RI 1 はじめに 1980 Free Cash Flow: FCF Copeland et. Al Economic Value Added: EVA Stewart 1991 Residual Income: RI Ohlson 1995 Return on Investment: ROI EVA FCFEVA RI FCFモデル Price Earnings Ratio: PER Return on Equity: ROE discounted dividend model

2 78 d j j r P o V D D j j FCF FCF j j R j j I j j Weighted Average Cost of Capital: WACC 3 EVA モデルと残余利益 (RI) モデル EVARI Stewart 1991Market Value Added: MVA MVAEVA Net Operating Profit after Tax: NOPAT capital charge MVA EVA MVA MVA L j j E j j i EVA

3 RI EBO Edward-Bell-Ohlson RI clean surplus RI b j j x j j d j j Ohlson 1995RI RI Ohlson 1995 RIEVA RI 4 FCF モデルと EVA モデル RI RI j j NP j j E j j r f FCF EVA Ohlson a 1998 s j j e j j d j j o j js j e j d j w j j I o i z j ATCF j j s j e j w j o j z o j d j w j o j z o j 1 z d j w j EVA EVA j j EVA

4 80 NPV EVA FCFEVA 5 モデルの有効性に関する研究 1 Penman & Sougiannis 1998 FCFRI RI FCF Ohlson FCF Ohlson FCF Ohlson 3 Francis et al 2000 FCF RI RI , FCFRI RI FCF RI FCF Dechow et al RI Ohlson RIFCF 5 Rappaport 1986

5 ,1993Rappaport Rappaport 1986 Rappaport & Mauboussin 2001 NEED Rappaprot 6 管理会計におけるモデルの有効性 Discounted Cash Flow: DCF FCF FCF OhlsonEVA RI 1ATCF NPV EVA NPVFCF EVA EVA RI 1 ATCF NPV EVA NPV ATCF(NPV) ,000 1,500 3,000 5,000 2, ,125 2,250 3,750 1, , , CF -1, , , CF -1, , ATCF(NPV) 652

6 82 EVA(NPV) ,000 1,500 3,000 5,000 2, ,125 2,250 3,750 1, , , , , , , EVA EVA(NPV) Return on Investment: ROI1980 ROI RI RI Kaplan & Atkinson 1982RI EVA 1994 Stewart 1994ROI EVA EVA RI 2001b1,2378 FCF FCF FCF FCF FCF FCF 7 むすび RI FCF EVAOhlson RI FCF RI EVARI FCF

7 83 EVA Stern Stewart 参考文献 Francis 2000 R.Francis, P.Olsson and D.Oswald, "Comparing Accuracy and Explainability of Dividend, Free Cash Flow, and Abnormal Earnings Equity Value Estimates," Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.38, No.1, Spring, 2000, pp Ohlson 1995 J.A.Ohlson, "Earning, Book Values, and Dividends in Equity Valuation," Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol.11, No.2, Spring, 1995, pp Penman & Sougiannis 1998 S.H.Penman and T.Sougiannis, "A Comparison of Dividend, Cash Flow, and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation," Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol.15, No.3, pp , Dechow et al P.M.Dechow, S.P.Kothari and R.L.Watts, "The Relation between Earnings and Cash Flow," Journal of Accounting and Economics Vol.25, No.2, May, 1998, pp Stewart 1994 G.B.Stewart, "EVA: Fact and Fantasy", Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Summer, 1994, p73. Copeland et. al T.Copeland, T.Koller & J.Murrin, Valuation, 1990, 1993 Stewart 1991 G.B.Stewart, The Quest for Value: The EVA Management Guide, Harper Collins Pub. 1991, EVA 1998 Rappaport 1986 A.Rappaport, Creating Shareholder Value: The New Standard for business Performance, Free Press, November, 1986, 1989 Rappaport & Mauboussin 2001 A.Rappaport and M.J.Mauboussin, Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns, Harvard Business School Press, September, 2001, 2003 Kaplan & Atkinson 1998 R.S.Kaplan and A.A.Atkinson, Advanced Management Accounting, Prentice-Hall International, Inc, p508, NPV EVA pp a b pp pp Vol pp EVAOhlson Vol.8 No.1/2 pp Vol pp EVA pp EVA pp Vol pp Vol pp pp

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