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1 Oct 25, (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (1) FRB (2) 9 FOMC (3) Tapering ( ) ( ) Summary % 2014 FRB 2 FRB FRB 9 FOMC Fed

2 Hastart Rule CR : Continuing Resolution Debt Ceiling CR Hastart Rule 1990 the majority of the majority rule 2 81vs vs Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction

3 WSJ/NBC %10 53% 24% 38% 40% 42% 41% CEA %Pt % 1012 GDP 2% Poll Finds GOP Blamed More for Shutdown WSJ Oct 10,2013

4 % 2% % % 10 9 FRB 2 FRB FRB FRB FRB Fed 9 FOMC Fed 2013 Fed 13

5 CPI GDP NFP : Nonfarm Payroll 14.8 Employment NFP U.S. Department of Labor Government Shutdown ( ) U.S. Department of Labor NFP %87.28% % % % ( ) U.S. Department of Labor

6 0.56%Pt %82.3% 2% 2.2%82.2% % %8 0.2% 9 0.4% % 1.6%

7 % ISM ISM % 7 9 2%

8 4, , , ,711 GDP ASEAN / / / / / / GDP 2013/ / / / / / Fed 1500 PCE %71.3% % % PCE 1.2%7 1.1%FOMC 2% 1.5% PCE ()U.S. BEA

9 GDP 1.8% % % % % % %2 2% % GDP

10 10 9 FRB FRB FRB 15 FRB FRB FRB 9 FOMC

11 9 FRB Fed FRB FRB FOMC FRB FOMC Minutes FOMC 9 FOMC Fed a relatively Minutes closed call For several members, the various considerations made the decision to maintain an unchanged pace of asset purchases at this meeting a relatively close call. Tap FOMC 9 FOMC Tapering Tapering further evidence [Q]uestions were raised about the effects on the housing sector and on the broader economy of the tightening in financial conditions in recent months, as well as about the considerable risks surrounding fiscal policy. [T]he announcement of a reduction in asset purchases at this meeting might trigger an Optimal-Model FOMC 10

12 additional, unwarranted tightening of financial conditions, perhaps because markets would read such an announcement as signaling the Committee's willingness, notwithstanding mixed recent data, to take an initial step toward exit from its highly accommodative policy. [A] number of participants thought that risk-management considerations called for a cautious approach and that, in light of the ambiguous cast of recent readings on the economy, it would be prudent to await further evidence of progress before reducing the pace of asset purchases. 9 FOMC Tapering Tapering FOMC 9 FOMC But with financial markets appearing to expect a reduction in purchases at this meeting, concerns were raised about the effectiveness of FOMC communications if the Committee did not take that step. 9 FOMC Tapering 10 9 FOMC Tapering FOMC Tapering 9 FOMC Tapering 9 FOMC Tapering Fed 9 FOMCTapering Tapering f urther evidence FOMC 9 FOMC 23 NY 10 FOMCTapering FOMC

13 11 10 FOMC Tapering 70 Tapering NY 12 FOMC Tapering 0 9 FOMC 10 ()Fed NY Tapering FOMC Tapering FOMC Tapering FOMC 13 Tapering 2829 FOMC Tapering 2 7 Tapering /23 9/9 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Sep CPI

14 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep

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Aug 19, 213 1. (1)FRB (2)GDP 2. 3. (1)6 GDP (2)6 (3)213 ()213. (1) (2)7 (3) () (5) (6) (7) (3-397-3675) miwa-y @itochu.co.jp (3-397-628) maruyama-yo @itochu.co.jp Summary FRB FRB 213 1.% 213 1 1 7.%28