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3 % % % HurdShoven(1985)Retirement History Survery HurdShoven HurdShoven 1983 Boskin Boskin Nelissen (1987) 3 Mcdermed,Clarck andallen Survey of Consumer Finance

4 (1984) 1989 ( HHG 60 (1)(2)(3) TachibanakiShimono

5 b b5 minmax(hhg6 8 ) (HHG)

6

7

8

9 HGG 24 HHG HHG HHG HHG HHG i aihhg bi ti ni mi Bi Ti Bi=aimi+bimiHHGi Ti=tiniHHGi TBi TBi=aimi+(bimi t ini) HHGi 43

10

11

12

13

14

15

16 ai bimi tini HHG TB bimi tini bimi tini bimi

17

18 (1) (2) (3)

19 Bernheim (1987) 53

20 lnw ( F, α ) = i j i + γ DA i i ji j + ε i β DF j ji F DFj 2 DAj σ u u i = ( u ) 2 2 i + v it σ u + σ v i j lnwifii the University of Michigan Panel Study i=lnwifiilnwfii of Income Dynamics Lillard and i 2 Willis1978 σ u( σ u + σ v ) W W F ui vit Lillard Lillard and Weiss1979 E t(ui) =ui E t(vit)=0 < < it=ui+vit < < ui < vit E t( it)=ui < ui ui i i King and Dicks-Mireaux 1982Haburd uivitui < σ u ( σ u + σ v ) King and Dicks Mireaux1982Haburd

21 (1986) 0.5 ui =0.5i i a lnwifi,a=lnwifi,a+0.5i LTW LTW < i (F, α ) = i < R a = α 1 + γ 1 + γ < W (F, a ) i a α i < ( ) r R r R A1 24 A A A A A A CITY1 3 CITY2 3CITY1 CITY3 3 CITY4 3 CITY W W W K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 K7 K8 K9 K10 4 SEX1 5 N1 1 N2 2 N3 3 N4 5 6 H 55

22 A A A A A A A CITY CITY CITY CITY CITY Wl W W K K K K K K K K K K SEX N N N N H

23 (1987) (60 )(79 )

24 t t t A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 CITY1 CITY2 CITY3 CITY4 CITY5 Wl W2 W3 K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 K7 K8 K9 K10 SEX1 N1 N2 N3 N4 H

25 t (1)

26 (1) ,000 60

27 3511(2) , % 185, % 6, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

28

29 /4 59/11 58/4 59/3 57/4 58/3 55/1057/3 54/4 55/9 53/4 54/3 51/8 53/3 50/4 51/7 48/1159/3 46/1148/10 44/1146/10 43/4 44/10 42/4 43/3 41/4 42/3 40/5 41/3 39/4 40/4 38/4 39/3 37/4 38/3 36/4 37/3 35/5 36/3 34/4 35/4 33/4 34/3 29/5 33/3 28/9 29/4 24/5 28/8 23/8 24/ ,000410,000 30,000320,000 20,000200,000 10,000134,000 10,000100,000 7,000 60,000 3,000 36,000 3,000 18,000 3,000 8,000 2,000 8, ,100 22/9 23/ /6 22/8 21/4 22/ /1021/ % 9.1% 7.6% 6.4% 6.2% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 9.4% 11.0% 63

30 (1) (2) /1260/9 45,000410, % 2 60/1065/9 68,000470, % 3 65/1070/9 14.2% 4 70/1075/9 16.0% 5 75/1080/9 17.8% 6 80/1085/9 20.0% 7 85/1090/9 25.0% 8 90/1095/9 27.0% 9 95/ % minmax

31 (1) % /4 59/ /4 59/3 3 56/4 57/3 4 55/4 56/3 5 54/1055/3 6 54/4 54/9 7 53/4 54/3 8 52/4 53/3 9 51/7 52/ /8 51/ /1050/ / /1049/ /1048/ /1146/ /4 44/ /4 43/ /4 42/ /5 41/ /4 40/ /4 39/ /4 38/ /4 37/ /5 36/ /1035/ /1 34/9 450, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 75, % 9.3% 8.8% 7.0% 65

32 1/ ) % () (2) (1) 5 min {max(hhg6 8 )47 } i=1.8% /1260/3 2 60/4 3 60/5 61/3 4 61/4 66/3 5 66/4 71/3 6 71/4 76/3 7 76/4 81/3 8 81/4 86/3 9 86/4 91/ /4 96/ /4 450, ,000 68,000470, % 15.3 % 12.26% 13.1 % 15.6 % 17.6 % 19.6 % 21.6 % 23.6 % 27.6 % % 60 i 1.8%

33 % 3552 (1) (2) 58 29,000 i (1). HHG (2). HHG HHG i =1.8% 67

34 (1) ,019, ,835, , , HHG 92, ,000 15,000 68, i (2) i (1) (2) (1) ,000 i1.8% 59 68

35 i1.8% 77,000 62,

36 i1.8% i1.8% 6582 i1.8% (2) i1.8% 59 i1.8%59 (2) (1) (2) (1)

37 i=1.8%

38 (1979) (1989) Discussion Paper No.10 (1986) 101 (1987) 10 pp.4757 (1984) pp (1989) (1983)J.J. pp.1362 (1989) 116 (1982) (1984) (1986) (1988)1988 (1988) (1989) Vol.25No.l pp.6675 (1986) 101 Bernheim (1987)The Economic Effect of Social Security,Journal of public Economics, Vol.33, pp

39 Boskin, M., L. Kotlikoff, D. Puffert, J. Shoven (1987) Social SecurityA Financial Appraisal Across and Within Generatioms. National Tax Journal, Vol. XL, No.l, pp Dicks-Mireaux, L-D.L. and M.A.King(1983) Portfolio Composition and Pension Wealth an Econometric Study,in Zvi Bodie and J.B.Shoven eds., Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System, The Univ. of Chicago Press, Hubbard, R.G.(1985)Personal Taxation, Pension Wealth, and Portfolio Composition,Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, No.l, Hurd, M.D. and J.Shoven(1985)The Distributional Impact of Social Security,in D.A.Wise(ed.), Pensions, Labor, and Individual Choice, ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Press. King, M.A. and LD.L.DicksMireaux(1982),Asset Holdings and the LifeCycle,The Economic Journal, 92, pp Lillard, L.A.(1977)InequalityEarnings vs. Human Wealth,American Economic Review, vol.67, pp Lillard, L.A. and Y.Weiss(1979)Components in Variation in Panel Earnings Datathe Gary Income Maintenance Experiment,Econometrica, vol.47, pp Lillard, L.A. and R.J.Willis(1978)Dynamic Aspects of Eranings Mobility,Econometrica, vol.23, pp McDermed, A,R.Clark and S.Allen(1987) Pension Wealth, Age Wealth Profiles, and The Distribution of Net Worth,NBER Working Paper No Nelissen, Jan(1987)The Redistributive Inpact of the General Old Age Pension Act on Lifetime Income in Netherlands,European Economic Review 31, Tachibanaki T. and K.Shimono(1985)Lifetime Income and Public PensionAn Analysis of the Effect on Redistribution Using a Twoperiod Analysis, Journal of Public Economics, 26, pp Wolff, E.N.(1987),The Effects of Pensions and Social Security on the Distribution of Wealth in the US,in Wolff, E.N.ed., International Comparisons of the Distribution of Household Wealth, Oxford Univ. Press. Wolff,N.(1987)Income Redistribution and the Social Security Program, UMI Research Press. 73

40

2 3 4 II. 8 10 12 14 20 8 6,000 3,695 61.6 10 6,000 3754 62.6 12 5,010 3,111 62.1 149,000558362.0 62% 4 2059 ++5 4 78.3 (2%) 2002 3 8 10,12 14 8

2 3 4 II. 8 10 12 14 20 8 6,000 3,695 61.6 10 6,000 3754 62.6 12 5,010 3,111 62.1 149,000558362.0 62% 4 2059 ++5 4 78.3 (2%) 2002 3 8 10,12 14 8 453200810 I. Dicks-Mireaux and King (1983)Hubbard (1985) Dicks-Mireaux and King (1983)Hubbard (1985)(1990)(2000) Attanasio and Brugiavini(2003), Attanasio and Rohwedder(2003) (unobservable) heterogeneity

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