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1 Aug 19, (1)FRB (2)GDP (1)6 GDP (2)6 (3)213 ()213. (1) (2)7 (3) () (5) (6) (7) ( ) ( ) Summary FRB FRB % % % 213 GDP 1.6% 2.% Fed 9 FOMC Tapering 215
2 7 2 NY TimesNYT 1 FRB Washington Post 3 7 FRB NYT 9 FRB FRS FRB FRB FRB 1 1 Interview With President Obama, N.Y. Times, July 278, Obama Raises Possibility of Change at the Fed,N.Y. Times, June 18, The White House wants Summers for the Fed. But will they actually choose him?, Washington Post, July 25, 213 Obama likely won't announce Fed chair pick until fall: official, July 26, 213
3 FRB 21 1 FRB FRB FOMC FRS FRB FRS 1 CEA FRB NEC FRB FRB
4 FRB FRS FRB FRB FRB FOMC Fed FT(Financial Times)Reuters FT 5 3 a) b) Fed c) 5 Summers dismissed QE effectiveness, Financial Times, July 25, 213
5 6 FRB 7 31 FRB FRB 6 7 Senate Democrats Endorsement Praises Yellen s Record, Wall Street Journal, July 26, 213
6 GDP SNA GDP GDP 29,3 3.2% 212 5, % 19% %, % 18.6% 5.% ( )BEA ()BEA GDP GDP %2.8% GDP 5, % % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q ()BEA 8 BEA 9
7 % 3.7% %.% % 1.8% Q1 212Q2 212Q3 212Q 213Q1 213Q ( )BEA
8 % % 2% % % % GDP 1.6% % Fed 9 FOMC.5 Tapering Fed 6 11 Tapering Fed
9 % 1%.9% GDP % 2.8% 112.%.1% % 1.1% % % % % % 1.% GDP % 6 1.8%.28%Pt.81%Pt 13 6 GDP 13.6% 6.6% 1 3.2% 6.% % %
10 %131.3% - 9.5%13.6% %Pt 6.28%Pt % % 2% % 3.5%.1%Pt 1.8%1.9% 6 GDP.8%Pt.1%Pt 6 6.5% 13.%.%Pt.2%Pt 6 1.7% 2.% 6 GDP 213
11 % %21 2.% GDP Pt % % % Fed PCED % % % PCED % % % FOMC 2% Fed 213 Tapering Economic Monitor ) GDP
12 FOMC 6 GDP 2.1% FOMC2.5% 7.3% 7.25% PCE 1.3%1.25% GDP FOMC FOMC GDP FOMC % 2.5% GDP 2.5% % 2.% % 3. GDP FOMC FRB Tapering 9 FOMC Tapering FOMC Tapering 112 Tapering 21 Fed Fed FF FOMC GDP FOMC GDP Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
13 7 NFP : Nonfarm Payroll Employment NFP %67.6% / 63.%663.6% NFP NFP ( ) U.S. Department of Labor NFP 3 DOL : Department of Labor 2 NFP ( ) U.S. Department of Labor NFP 1.167%Pt.16%Pt.77%Pt.99%Pt 15 16
14 NFP NFP NFP % 6.6% 6.%.6% 6 3.3% 3.5% U.S. Department of Labor 1.2% -2 - PCE ()U.S. BEA % %62.9%
15 .5%6.2% % 6 2.% 5.%6 3.5% 79 NAHB GDP %131.3% % 2.2%Pt % % 1.7%Pt % % NAHB 18.29%.%
16 6 9.5%13.6% 31.% % % 6.1%Pt ISM 5,% Pt Pt ISM
17 % % /2/ 5/18 6,7 3, GDP GDP CPI.2%6.5% CPI CPI CPI CPI GDP
18 CPI.2Pt.%Pt CPI CPI CPI CPI CPI CPI CPI CPI CPI CPI
19 Q3-12 Q-12 Q1-13 Q Q3-12 Q-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul
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Apr 11, 213 (3-3497-3675) miwa-y @itochu.co.jp (3-3497-6284) maruyama-yo @itochu.co.jp 1. (1) (2) (3 (4) 2. (1)3 (2) (3)J (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (1) 46 3. Summary 2 2% 2 13 13 13 J 79 46 13 46 4 34 2%
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Oct 25, 2013 1. (1) (2) (3) (4) 2. 3. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)2013 4. (1) FRB (2) 9 FOMC (3) Tapering (03-3497-3675) miwa-y @itochu.co.jp (03-3497-6284) maruyama-yo @itochu.co.jp Summary 10 1 17 2 10
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Dec 2, 211 1. (1) (2) Summary 11 2. (1)12 FOMC (2) (3)212 FOMC 3. (1)112 (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 1 (7) 2 1 11 112 4.% 79 212 2.1%213 2.3% (3-3497-3675) miwa-y @itochu.co.jp (3-3497-6284) maruyama-yo @itochu.co.jp
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