高齢化とマクロ投資比率―国際パネルデータを用いた分析―

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1 * ** ** ** ** JEL Classification Codes E21, E22, J11 Keywords * ESRI 28 ESRI ESRI ** 115

2 196 Population Aging and Domestic Investment An Analysis Using International Panel Data Masanori UMEDA, Takuma KAWAMOTO, Tetsuro SAKAMAKI, and Masahiro HORI Abstract It has been pointed out that the recovery of domestic investment in Japan has been slow compared to the relatively strong corporate earnings. Similarly sluggish growth in capital investment has been observed in other advanced countries in the process of recovery from the global financial crisis. While the change in the link between macroeconomic developments and investment likely reflects a number of factors, the aging of the population, which are most pronounced in Japan, likely play an important role. To investigate the effects of aging on domestic investment in a country, we run regressions using an international panel dataset covering about 160 countries around the world. As channels through which aging affects domestic investment, we consider two possible channels: 1 a decline in the savings rate, and 2 a decline in the expected growth rate. We find that aging leads to lower domestic investment through both channels. Our result appears to suggest that one of the reasons for the sluggish investment observed in a considerable number of countries including Japan is the rapid population aging in countries worldwide. JEL Classification Codes: E21, E22, J11 Keywords: Population aging, Domestic investment, Saving rate, Expected growth, International panel data 116

3 1 GDP

4 196 Horioka and Terada Park and Shin OECD16 Feldstein and Horioka 1980 OECD Herwartz and Xu

5 IMF GDP GDP Aksoy et al OECD21 VAR Bloom and Cannnig and Fink OECD 119

6 World Bank World Development Indicators WDI S GDP WDI Gross domestic saving of GDP GDP I GDP WDI Gross capital formation of GDP 3 Age, WDI Age dependency ratio old Dep WDI Age dependency ratio young 14 IMF World Economic Outlook WEO GDP WEO 6 GDP Ey WEO

7 Feldstein and Horioka

8 196 3 * 10 ** 5 *** 1 0 OECD OECD OECD 4 OECD 2000 OECD 4 OECD

9 4 * 10 ** 5 *** 1 0 OECD 5 * 10 ** 5 *** 1 0 OECD 5 OECD

10 196 6 * 10 ** 5 *** 1 0 OECD 6 OECD

11 1 2 2 S j,t α 1 Age j,t α 2 Dep j,t γz j,t u j,t 1 Ey j,t β 1 Age j,t β 2 Dep j,t δz j,t v j,t 2 I j,t γ 1 S j,t γ 2 Ey j,t ε j,t 3 S GDP Ey World Economic Outlook I GDP Age Dep Z GDP 2000 j t α 1 α GDP WDI GDP per capita current US$ 5 2 β 1 β GDP Dep GDP Lngdp 2 125

12 196 3 Feldstein and Horioka 1980 γ 1 γ α 1 α 2 β 1 β 2 γ 1 γ a b GDP c b OECD α 1 a OECD α c OECD 2000 GDP 126

13 7 OLS *** p 0.01 ** p 0.05 * p

14 a b GDP c b OECD OECD GDP 2000 GDP GDP 3 OLS 128

15 8 OLS *** p 0.01 ** p 0.05 * p

16 196 9 *** p 0.01 ** p 0.05 * p GDP a a a a 9 b b b 130

17 6 7 b 8 b 9 b b

18 b 132

19 Aksoy, Basso, Smith and Grast 2015, Demographic structures and macroeconomic trends, Documentos de Trabajo Working Paper No,1528, BANCO DE ESPANA. Bloom, Cannnig and Fink 2010 Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26 4, pp Feldstein, M. and Horioka, C Domestic saving and international capital flows, Economic Journal, 90, pp Herwartz and Xu 2010 A functional coefficient model view of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29. Horioka and Terada 2010 Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia, ADB Economics Working Paper Series. IMF 2004 World Economic Outlook 2004 The Global Demographic Transition. Obstfeld and Rogoff 2001 The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause? NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume15. Park and Shin 2009 Saving, Investment, and Current Account Surplus in Developing Asia, ADB Economics Working Paper Series. 133

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