合理的個人VS

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1 VS - 1 -

2 - 2 -

3 Simon Khaneman,Tversky

4 SIMON...19 Simon KHANEMANTVERSKY...44 KhanemanTversky DE BONDTTHALER...52 SEN URL

5 1 Varian2000pp

6 2 3 2 Varian2000pp. 3 Varian2000pp

7 ( x, x 1 2 ) f ( y, y ) 1 2 ( y, y ) f ( x, x ) X Y 1 4 X Y ) ( x, x f ( y, y ) ( y, y 1 2 ) f ( x, x ) 1 2 ( x, x 1 2 ) f ( y, y ) 1 2 ( y, y ) f ( x, x ) ( 1 2 ) 1 2 ( 1 2 ) ( 1 2 ) Varian2000pp

8 5 6 X Y Z Y Z X Varian2000 utility function ) ( x, x ) 1 2 ( y, y 1 2 ( x, x 1 2 ) ( y, y ) d ( x x ) x c x u, = ,d 5 Varian2000pp.39 6 Varian2000pp.39 7 ( x, x 1 2 ) f ( y, y ) 1 2 u( x, x ) 1 2 u( y, y )

9 ordinal utility (cardinal utility) f f 8 A B A B Varian2000pp.59 9 Varian2000pp Varian2000pp

10 Varian Varian2000pp 196 Varian K K γ KK γ. 1 γ γ γ γ = = K K K C C b g

11 12 2 u ( c c ) 1, 2, 1, 2 1 c1 c Varian2000pp u ( c1, c2, 1, 2 ) = 1c1 + 2 c2-11 -

12 ,, c c1 c2 3,, U ( c c c ) = u( c ) + u ( c ) + u ( ) 1, 2, c3 expected value u 1 ( c c, ) = c + c 1, 2, u ( c c ) = v ( c ) + v ( ) 1, 2, 1, c2 v 1 v c 2 + ( c,c 1v( c1 ) 2 v( c2 ) 1 2 ) v( c) c v( c) In c 2 ( c ) ( )

13 MRS 12 U = U ( c1, c2, c3 ) ( c, c, c ) c 1 1 u = c u 2 2 ( c1 ) c1 ( c2 ) c2 MRS

14 Sen1986 internal consistency self-interest pursuit

15 Simon(1965) Simon(1965) pp

16 16 16 Sen1989pp

17 1-17 -

18 N. McCloskey 1978 Herbert A. Simon Daniel KhanemanAmos Tversky Daniel Khaneman Amos Tversky

19 Simon Simon Simon Simon1984 SEU Simon Simon

20 18 Simon 19 Simon KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky 18 Simon1984pp Simon1984pp pp

21 Simon 21 Simon1967 Simon Simon1967pp

22 Simon Simon 22 Simon Simon 22 Simon1967pp

23 Simon 23 T ( x) = y 23 Simon1967pp

24 y ( x1, x2, x3, L, xn) = y T y y : y y y Simon 3 Simon

25 Simon search satisfying George Stigler George Stigler George Stigler Simon 24George Stigler 1965 Simon Simon Simon George Stigler Simon 24 Simon1987pp Simon1987pp Simon1987pp

26 Simon George Stigler Simon Simon 27 Simon 28 Simon 27 Simon1987pp Simon1987pp

27 4 Simon Simon1989pp

28 Simon Simon Simon Simon Simon Simon 1935 Simon Simon Simon

29 31 32 Simon 33 Simon Simon 31 Simon1991pp Simon1976pp Simon1999pp

30 5-30 -

31 - 31 -

32 pp

35 Simon 36 Simon Simon Simon1999pp pp

36 38 Simon Simon Simon Simon Simon pp

37 Simon Simon Simon Simon Simon 50 Simon pp

38 50 Simon Simon K.J. G. L.W. D K.J. L. F.H Simon Simon Simon pp pp pp

39 HallHitch pp

40 Simon Simon Simon Simon 1978 Simon Simon Simon Simon

41 Simon 46 Khaneman Tversky KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky 46 2 AB Pr { B A} Pr = { A I B} Pr{ A} = Pr Pr { B} Pr{ A B} { B} Pr{ A B} + Pr{ B} Pr{ A B} B r A Bi Pr { Bi A} { AI Bi} Pr{ A} Pr = = r Pr{ Bi} Pr{ A Bi} Pr{ Bj} Pr{ A Bj} j= 1 PrBi A pp

42 De BondtThaler Simon n 48 n n n pp pp

43 Simon 50 Simon Simon Simon

44 KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky Simon Allais Allais Ellsberg Ellsberg KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky Khaneman Tversky n = i V ( pi) v( xi) ) i (pi v( xi) x ) (pi v xi 50 ( )

46 3 KhanemanTversky

47 ,0.5,0.5 A D A Y X D X Y C AD B AD A D 4 AD A Y A B C D D

48 KhanemanTversky n, p p p, p, A4000,0.8B n95 C4000,0.2D 3000, n95 E 4000,0.8 F n95 25% G4000,0.8H % n141 AB B CD C C D A,0.25B,0.25 B A p B,p

49 A,p A C B D KhanemanTversky AB EF GH 25% 0.25 G C H D pp

50 Allais Ellsberg U ( ai ) = ju ( cij ) V ( j ) KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky 52 KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky pp

51 Khaneman

52 De BondtThaler De BondtThaler KhanemanTversky De BondtThaler

53 De BondtThaler De BondtThaler

54 De BondtThaler De BondtThaler De BondtThaler De BondtThaler pp.195 CAPM R = R R R e it ft ( mt ft ) it Rit t I

55 CAPM De BondtThaler De BondtThaler R mt R ft t t e it t

57 pp

58 Sen Simon Sen Sen Sen 55 Sen1989pp Sen1989pp

59 Sen Sen 57 Sen Sen 57 Sen1989pp

60 Sen

61 MarwellAmes

63 8-63 -

64 - 64 -

65 9 Simon

66 Simon

67 2001 Hursh Economic concepts for the analysis of behavior Journal of the experimental Analysis of Behavior Hursh 1997 Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis Kagel & Winker(1972) Kagel & Winker

68 KhanemanTversky

69 19 weber-fechner, Chamberlin

70 Vernon Smith Chamberlin Vernon Smith Richard Cyert, Lester Lave 1969 The Review of Economic Studies Vernon Smith

71 Smith

72 - 72 -

73 De BondtThaler KhanemanTversky

79 - 79 -

80 What s New

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82 URL Amartya Sen1982 ChoiceWelfare and MeasurementBasil Blackwell 1989 BarryCastroKennethWeingarten 1970Toward Experimental EconomicsThe Journal of Political Economy Volume 78 Issue Mar.-Junpp EugeneFFama1991 Efficient Capital MarketsThe Journal of Finance 12 Eugene F. Fama 1992 pp3583 DanielBell1982THE SOCIAL SCIENCES SINCE THE SECOND WORLD WARTransactionInc 1984 TBS Daniel FriedmanShyam Sunder1994Experimental Methods A primer for economistscambridge University Press 1999 DeirdreNMcCloskey1996 The Vices of Economists: The Virtues of the BourgeoisieUniv of Chicago Press N JonElster1989 THE NUTS AND BOLTS FOR SOCIAL SCIENCES Cambridge University Press 1997 Hal R Varian1999Intermediate MicroeconomicsA Modern Approach, 5 th editionwwnorton & Company662 pages 2000 HerbertASimon(1999)The Sciences of the ArtificialThe MIT Press CambridgeMassachusettsUSA A

83 1976 ADMINISTRATIVE BEHAVIOR,RD EDITION The Free PressA Division of Macmillan Publishing CoNew York A Reason in Human AffairsStandord UnivPress A Models of My LifeThe MIT PressCambridge MassachusettsUSA Jean-JacquesLaffont1985Cours de Théorie Microéconomiquevol Economie de l IncertainEconomicaParis 1992 MariluHurt McCarty2001The Nobel laureateshow the World's Greatest Economic Minds Shaped Modern Thought The McGraw-Hill CompaniesInc 2002 BP RichardHThaler1992The Winners CurseThe Free Press H 1998 ThomasHNaylor1972Experimental Economics RevisitedThe Journal of Political EconomyVolume 80 Issue Mar-Aprpp VernonLSmith1985 Experimental EconomicsReplyThe American Economic ReviewVolume 75Issue Marpp WernerFMDe BondtRichard Thaler 1985 Does the Stock Market Overreact The Journal of Finance Volume 40 Issue Papers

84 and American Finance Association Dallas Texas December Junpp Do Security Analysts Overreact The American Economic ReviewVolume 80Issue The American Economic AssociationMaypp A pp pp pp pp pp pp pp pp pp pp pp

85 44 12 pp pp pp pp a 16pp b pp pp pp H.A HA 48 pp pp pp

86 pp VR 8 pp pp pp pp pp pp pp pp pp pp

87 pp

わが国企業による資金調達方法の選択問題

わが国企業による資金調達方法の選択問題 * takeshi.shimatani@boj.or.jp ** kawai@ml.me.titech.ac.jp *** naohiko.baba@boj.or.jp No.05-J-3 2005 3 103-8660 30 No.05-J-3 2005 3 1990 * E-mailtakeshi.shimatani@boj.or.jp ** E-mailkawai@ml.me.titech.ac.jp