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1

2

3 ,, 14,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, FAOSTAT %

4 27-28 FAOSTATUNCOMTRADE FAOSTATUNCOMTRADE

5 ,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, FAOSTATUNCOMTRADE UNCOMTRADE

6 ( ) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 / Oct-6 Apr-7 Nov-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jul-9 Jan-1 SAFEXSouth African Futures Exchange) white maize ( UNCOMTRADE ) 2 Benson et al. [28: 518]

7 ( ) 2 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, / Oct-6 Apr-7 Nov-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jul-9 Jan-1 The Monthly (Central Statistical Office ) / /9 2 15%FEWS NET [28a, 29b]

8 ( ) /kg / Oct-6 Apr-7 Nov-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jul-9 Jan-1 Leading Economic Indicators (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics ) nshima (Smale [1995: 82]) 11, (National Statistical Office [25])

9 2 (National Statistical Office [25]) 16 (Dorward et al. [28: 3]) /98 26/7 24/5 2/1 (Devereux and Tiba [27]) 25/ [27][28]

10 ,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, FAOSTAT 28 FEWSNET[28b]27-8 UNCOMTRADE 1997/98 26/ / /4 24/

11 1997/98 26/7 4,, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Dorward et al. [28: 11] FAOSTAT / / Oct-6 Apr-7 Nov-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jul-9 Jan-1 FEWSNET ( Lilongwe, Nsanje

12 UNCOMTRADE

13 Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation: ADMARC ADMARC ADMARC 198 ADMARC ADMARC ADMARC ADMARC 199 SACA(Smallholder Agricultural Credit Administration) ADMARC ADMARC ADMARC SACA 1994 MRFC(Malawi Rural Finance Company) 199 (Starter Pack Programme) 1998/

14 24/ / / / (Fertilizer Subsidy Programme: FSP) /6 131,83 (Dorward et al. [28: 48]) 45 55(Ellis et al.[29: 237])26 26/7 174,688 (Dorward et al. [28: 25])27/8 17, (FEWS NET [27]) SFFRFM(Smallholder Farmers Fertilizer Revolving Fund) ADMARC 26/7 5 (Dorward et al. [28:25]) (Ellis et al. [29: 236]) 4 26/7 28/9 29/

15 1997/98 26/7 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, (ADMARC, SFFRFM) Dorward et al. [28: 11] ADMARC: Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation. SFFRFM: Smallholder Farmers Fertilizer Revolving Fund /98 26/7 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Dorward et al. [28: 11]

16 26/7 Dorward et al. [28: iv-iiv, 62-65] 25 1 ADMARC (National Food Reserve Agency: NFRA) 1999 NFRA ADMARC NFRA 21 (Devereux and Tiba [27]) (FEWSNET [29a]) ADMARC

17

18 [27] [28] Benson, T., Mugarura, S. and Wanda, K. [28], "Impacts in Uganda of Rising Global Food Prices: the Role of Diversified Staples and Limited Price Transmission," Agricultural Economics, 39(supplement), Central Statistical Office (Zambia) [various issues] The Monthly, Lusaka: Central Statistical Office. Chinsinga, B. [27], Reclaiming Policy Space? Malawi's 25/26 Fertilizer Subsidy Programme, (Presentation at the World Development Report Politics and Policy Processes Workshop, January 27, at the Institute of Development Studies, Sussex. ( Devereux, S. and Z. Tiba [27] "Malawi's First Famine, 21-22," S. Devereux ed., The New Faines: Why Famines Persist in an Era of Globalization, London and New York: Routledge. Dorward, A., Chirwa, E., Kelly, V., Jayne, T., Slater, R. and Boughton, D. [28], Evaluation of the 26/7 Agricultural Input Subsidy Programme, Malawi, Report to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security. Economist Intelligence Unit [27] EIU Country Report Malawi July 27, London: Economist Intelligence Unit. Ellis, F., Devereux, S. and White, P. [29], Social Protection in Africa, Cheltenham and Northampton: Edward Elgar. FEWS NET (Famine Early Warning Systems Network) [27], "Malawi Food Security Update, November 27," ( [28a], "Kenya Food Security Outlook April to September 28," ( [28b], " Malawi Food Security Update, June/July 28," ( [29a], " Malawi Food Security Update, February 29,"

19 ( [29b], "Kenya Food Security Outlook April to September 29," ( Kenya National Bureau of Statistics [various issues] Leading Economic Indicators, Nairobi: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics National Statistical Office (Malawi) [25], Report of the Second Malawi Integrated Household Survey 24-25, Volume I: Household Socio-Economic Characteristics, Zomba: National Statistical Office. --- [27], Welfare Monitoring Survey 26, Zomba: National Statistical Office. Smale, Melinda [1995], ""Maize if Life": Malawi's Delayed Green Revolution," World Development, 23(5), pp

Benson and Clay Before/After WTO World Development IndicatorsGDP GDP % % GDP % GDP % % % % EACEast African Community

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