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1 TIGGE * JAMSTEC
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6 Strategy Global Ens. Forecast Potential Occurrence - Timing ~ O(day) - Location ~ O(100km) time Regional Hi- Res. Forecast - Estimate Quantitatively - Timing ~ O(hr) - Location ~ O(10 km) High Impact Weather Event Occurs! 6
7 1. Global Hi-Res. Deterministic Forecast Only My Choice! Global Lo-Res. Ensemble Forecast 2. + Regional Hi-Res. Forecast 3. Global Hi-Res. Deterministic Forecast + Regional Hi-Res. Forecast 7
8 Lupit
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11 Vietnam : Flood : November 2008 Torrential rainfall in early November in northern and central Vietnam caused severe flooding that left at least 85 people dead, damaged 180,000 houses and devastated over 265,000 hectares of rice and vegetable fields. An estimated 600,000 people were affected. United Nations Office of Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) tabid/4837/language/ja-jp/default.aspx IRIN EM-DAT
12 Genesis Potential using TIGGE EPSs for Vietnam Flood in Oct hr 216hr TD TD TD TD TD Color Shading: Percentage of Members, which exceed 90 Percentile of Us
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14 2007 3
15 Genesis Potential using TIGGE EPSs for Gobi Sand Storm in Mar hr Russia Mongolia China Color Shading: Percentage of Members, which exceed 95 Percentile of Us
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17 WMO/WWRP
18 Strike Probability in 120 km, 4 days CMA MSC ECMWF JMA-W JMA-T KMA NCEP STI UKMO
19 An Example of the Strike Probability Map
20 JMA-WEPS Taipei Sinlaku (km)
21 Lupit
22 Global Deterministic High Resolution Oct ECMWF WWRP JMA
23 Global Deterministic High Resolution ECMWF Oct WWRP No Recurvature! JMA
24 WWRP Oct. 20 Oct. 21 Oct. 22 JMA-W JMA-T ECMWF
25 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 JMA-W JMA-T WWRP ECMWF Member Spread at Day 5
26 PDF
27 Model Representations for Extreme Us
28 Model Representations for Extreme Us
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30 Model Representations for Extreme Us
31 Model Representations for Extreme Prcp
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33 Model Representations for Extreme Prcp
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35 Parameter Candidates for Target Disasters Disaster Typhoon Flood Wind, Dust Storm Draught Cold Surge Heat Wave Parameters Us, Ps, Vor850 Us, Precip, Vor850 Us Ts, qs, Precip Ts, T700, Us Ts
36 Tropical Cyclone ITC=max(P(Us), P(Ps), P(Vor850)) P(Us): Percentage of members, which are above 95 percentile P(Vor850): Percentage of members, which are above 95 percentile P(Ps): Percentage of members, which are below 5 percentile Flood IFL=max(P(Precip), P(Us), P(Vor850)) P(Precip): Percentage of members, which are above 95 percentile P(Us): Percentage of members, which are above 95 percentile P(Vor850): Percentage of members, which are above 95 percentile Wind/Dust Storm IWD=P(Us) P(Us): Percentage of members, which are above 95 percentile
37 Draught IDR=max(P(Ts), P(qs), P(Precip)) P(Ts): Percentage of members, which are above 95 percentile P(qs): Percentage of members, which are below 5 percentile P(Precip): Percentage of members, which are below 5 percentile Cold Surge in 10-day average ICS=max(P(Ts), P(T700), P(Us)) P(Ts): Percentage of members, which are below 5 percentile P(T700): Percentage of members, which are below 5 percentile P(Us): Percentage of members, which are above 95 percentile Heat Wave IHW=P(Ts) P(Ts): Percentage of members, which are above 95 percentile
38 TIGGE 38
39 PDF JRA-25/JCDAS PDF GSMaP JCDAS 39
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* ** Casualties by the 3 June 1991 pyroclastic flow at Unzen volcano Shinichi SUGIMOTO * and Daisuke NAGAI ** Abstract The eruption of Unzen
九州大学学術情報リポジトリ Kyushu University Institutional Repository 雲仙火山 1991 年 6 月 3 日の火砕流による人的被害 杉本, 伸一島原市役所島原半島ジオパーク推進室 長井, 大輔九州大学大学院理学研究院附属地震火山観測研究センター https://doi.org/10.15017/13523 出版情報 : 九州大学大学院理学研究院研究報告.
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1,000m 875m1 6km
1,000m 875m1 6km 1,000m 875m 30 13 14 11 2 14 23 27 50 30 3 () 23 24 25 16,534 16,792 18,017 13,946 17,884 18,712 30,480 34,676 36,729 1 (25 ) () 395 1,420 1,343 1,756 1,364 1,599 1,184 1,278 1,619 1,324
一太郎 13/12/11/10/9/8 文書
(1) 17 3 (2) (3) (1) 1 (2) 2 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 3 (1) 50 12.5km 1km (2) 16 1900 (3) 65 65 19 14 17.5 (4) 34 31 22 335 133 (5) 104 321 3 4 4 43 4 4 4 () 5 6 (1) (2) 7 8 (1) (2)24 24 (3) 9 (4)