J. JSNDS 階層分析法による総合指標の重み係数の合理化と自然災害に対するリスク指標への適用 神谷圭祐 1 菊本統 2 伊藤和也 3 日下部治 4 Rational determination of weighting factors for an integ
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1 J. JSNDS 階層分析法による総合指標の重み係数の合理化と自然災害に対するリスク指標への適用 神谷圭祐 1 菊本統 2 伊藤和也 3 日下部治 4 Rational determination of weighting factors for an integrative index by Analytic Hierarchy Process and its application to a risk index against natural disasters Keisuke KAMIYA 1, Mamoru KIKUMOTO 2, Kazuya ITOH 3 and Osamu KUSAKABE 4 Abstract An index calculated by weighted linear summation of normalized data requires rational sets of the weighting factors. We proposed a method to calculate the weighting factors by applying Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to the results of questionnaire to experts, and applied it to a risk index called Gross National Safety for natural disasters (GNS). The questionnaire regarding the alternatives (natural disasters and disaster prevention measures) considered in GNS was addressed to three groups in charge of disaster prevention. Sets of the weighting factors determined by AHP for each group showed slightly different trend, reflecting the regional characteristics of the disasters. The sets of weighting factors for disaster prevention measures were characterized by the criteria regardless of the groups, meaning reasonable selection of the alternatives. Key words: risk index, weighting factor, analytic hierarchy process, consistency index, natural disasters Graduate School of Urban Innovation, Yokohama National University Institute of Urban Innovation, Yokohama National University Department of Urban and Civil Engineering, Tokyo City University International Press-in Association
2 1. はじめに Gross National Safety for natural disastersgns - GNS - GNS, PDCA GNS, 図 1 図 1 THE QS CSR Thomas L. Saaty Analytic Hierarchy Process; AHP GNS AHP 図 1
3 J. JSNDS 階層分析法 (AHP) に基づく重み係数の決定方法と GNS への適用 AHP, Thomas L. Saaty AHP AHP AHP AHP GNS 2. 1 AHP における階層構造の構築 AHP goal criteriaalternative 図 一対比較法に基づいたアンケートの作成 AHP 表 1 Saaty 図 3 図 2 表 一対比較値を用いた重み係数の算出方法. n I, I,, I n w, w,, w n I i, I j a ij n n A=[ a ij 図 2
4 A v n w, w,, w n v 表 1 v A n A a ij a ij i j j k i k v A λ A v λ λ max v λ max λ max n Saaty λ max λ max λ max 図 3 表 λ max =., C.I...
5 J. JSNDS C.I.Consistency Index w jc w ia w ig 図 2 表 GNS における階層構造 GNS UNU-EHS World Risk IndexWRI GNS - Hazard Exposure Vulnerability WRI WorldRiskReport WRI GNS WRI GNS GNS 図 45 図 4 表 3 w C A w i. G w i w C. A w i.....
6 図 4 図 5 AHP GNS GNS GNS GNS GNS AHP 図 45 表 調査対象 表 5
7 J. JSNDS 表 4 No. 表 5 3. アンケートの結果と考察 C.I アンケートの整合度 C.I. と回答のばらつきに関する考察 C.I. 図 67 C.I. Saaty C.I.... C.I. C.I. C.I. C.I.. C.I.. 図 67 C.I. 図 6 7 C.I.
8 a ij C.I. 図 8 図 8 T 図 8 図 8C.I. 図 6 C.I. 図 7 C.I.
9 227 自然災害科学 J. JSNDS 回答者集団別重み係数に関する考察 集団幾何平均法を用いて個人の一対比較の結果 11 から回答者集団別の重み係数を算出した14 集団幾何平均法では 個人の一対比較値 aij を を満たすため 計算が容易である 一対比較値を 幾何平均することで 集団での一対比較値 Aij を 求めた後の計算は 先述の重み係数の算出方法と 求める 10 このとき 個人の一対比較値 aij と同様に 同様に行った 集団幾何平均法の適用例を図 9 に 示す 本研究では先述の通り 曝露量指数に対 しては C.I 脆弱性指数に対しては C.I を満たす回答結果 図 6 7 のグレー色部 図 8 死傷者を出さない 評価基準における脆弱性指数の重み係数の散布図
10 図 9 図 10 図 10 図 11 図 11 GNS GNS GNS 図 11 図 12 図 13
11 J. JSNDS 図 11 図 12 図 13 w ia
12 図 13 図 13 図 11 図 13 AHP 表 67 表 7 4. まとめ GNS
13 C.I J. JSNDS 表 6 GNS 表 7... C.I..... GNS
14 C.I. AHP C.I.. C.I. C.I. C.I. AHP AHP GNS GNS GNS GNS 図 1 謝辞 B 参考文献 GNS
15 J. JSNDS ne.jp/group/pdf/gns.pdf-- Kusakabe, O., Kikumoto, M., Shimono, K., Itoh, K., Inagaki, H., Ohsato, S. and Watanabe, K.: Development of Gross National Safety Index for Natural Disasters, Geotechnical Engineering Journal of the SEAGS and AGSSEA, (), -,. F - CD-ROM GNS CD-ROM GNS CD-ROM PDCA = City planning review --- CSR articles/-/-- articles/-/-- Times Higher Education: World University Rankings, com/world-university-rankings-- Quacquarelli Symond: University Rankings, Thomas L. Saaty: How to make a decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process, European Journal of Operational Research,, -, Analytic Hierarchy Process Capability Approach AHP - B I_-I_ - -- Wilkinson, J.H.,: The Algebraic Eigenvalue Problem, Clarendon Press, Oxford,. AHP AHP World Risk Index Vol. No. FVol. No. pp. - Birkmann, J., Krause, D., Setiadi, N.J., Suarez, D., Welle, T., Wolfertz, J., Dickerhof, R., Mucke, M. and Radtke, K.: World Risk Report, Alliance Development Works, de/wp-content/uploads// / WorldRiskReport_.pdf -- pdf/progress_.pdf-- - -
16 要 旨 AHP Gross National Safety for natural disastersgns C.I.
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