J. JSNDS 地形的要因を取り入れた津波による人的被害予測式の構築 四井早紀 1 清野純史 2 Fatality Modeling of Tsunami Disaster Taking into Account Geographical Factors under th
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1 J. JSNDS 地形的要因を取り入れた津波による人的被害予測式の構築 四井早紀 1 清野純史 2 Fatality Modeling of Tsunami Disaster Taking into Account Geographical Factors under the Great East Japan Earthquake Saki YOTSUI 1 and Junji KIYONO 2 Abstract Fatality model can help with risk communication to the local communities and disaster management. Although there are many models of tsunami disaster at present, certainly none of them take into account characteristics of region. This study develops new explanatory variables to model based on equation of Central Disaster Management Council and UNDP. New explanatory variables indicate local features such as distance of evacuation route and elevation trend of evacuation route. We analyzed characteristics of distance and elevation trend of evacuation route in the case of Fukushima prefecture under the Great East Japan Earthquake as the first step. We carried out multiple regression analysis against new eight explanatory variables. This study proposes deaths in each m grid using geographical factors based on new explanatory variables and demographic factors. ArcGIS Key words: the Great East Japan Earthquake,Fukushima prefecture,fatality model,arcgis 1. はじめに Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University
2 EM-DAT UNISDR So 2. データと人的被害予測式の手法論, m. exp.
3 J. JSNDS Suppasri Peduzzi PhExpU g WoodPc K 図 1 log(k).ln(phexp Eq. ).U g.ln(woodpc)., Peduzzi 図 1 表 人的被害予測式の構築に用いたデータ 表 1 ArcGIS.ESRI ArcGIS ArcGIS Network analystesri m m / web
4 m m ArcGIS Network Analyst m m m 2. 2 死者が存在した地域での分析 web 表 2 表 2 A m A 図 2 (a) A A ArcGIS Network analyst m 図 2 (b) A 2. 3 死者が存在しない地域での分析.. 図 3 ArcGIS
5 5 自然災害科学 J. JSNDS 36 特別号 2017 数を表 3 に示す 以下に分析手順を示す 手順 B1 福島県の安否確認情報を基に浸水域 内で死者のいない500 m メッシュを 抽出し メッシュ内の人口を抽出す る 手順 B2 2010年国勢調査と浸水域ポリゴンの 重なる部分を抽出し 浸水域ポリゴ ンによって切り取られた500 m メッ シュに対して 重心ポイントを求め 図 2 a ArcGIS による浸水域と平成22年 国勢調査500 m メッシュ人口の位置 関係の例と b ArcGIS による死者 住所からゴール地点までの避難経路 上の標高分析例 図3 死者が存在しない地域の ArcGIS 上での 分析例 表3 死者が存在しない地域の対象メッシュ数 地域名 対象メッシュ数 新地町 相馬市 南相馬市 いわき市 87 92
6 ArcGIS B B m B ArcGIS Network analyst m B 2. 4 統計的な分析.. ARMA ARMA L h C.. C ARMA y n m v n N, ma i lb i ARMA Intercept AMRA C C L h a a x m λλ C L h ARMA Intercept m L h L h ARMA Intercept 図 4 ARMA L h Intercept
7 J. JSNDS 結果と考察 3. 1 人的被害予測式について (1) 手法について 表 4 図 4 C m L h ARMA Intercept m m C D=a P+a x a x a x a x a x a x a x C D m P m x m m x m m x m Lx m h x m Intercept x m x m C.... Peduzzi m
8 Intercept m 表 4 m m 図 5 図 5 表 4 m D D 図 5 表 5 表 5 表 5 表 4 表 5 P Yun 図 6 E a N Y ai y ei m 図 5E a E ac,., (2) 人的被害予測式と地形的特徴の関係 表 4 表 5 ArcGIS 図 7
9 J. JSNDS 図 5
10 表 4 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ).... ***.... **.... Intercept * Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ).... *** ** Intercept Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ).... ***.... *.... Intercept Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ) ** Intercept Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t )....**....***.... Intercept ** P. P. P.P. 表 5 a a a a a a a a C Intercept D D D D D D D D D D P. P. P.P.
11 J. JSNDS 図 6 m 図 7 4. おわりに ARMA 図 7, m 表 5 図 7
12 参考文献 No.pp.- A Vol. No. pp.- EM-DAT, UNISDR publications/pdf/rdr_es_j.pdf E,So.: Estimating Fatality Rates for Earthquake Loss Models, SpringerBriefs in Earth Sciences, npa.go.jp/archive/keibi/syouten/syouten/ pdf/all.pdf pdf/_.pdf BVol.No.pp.- J.JSNDS -pp.- A, Suppasri, N, Hasegawa, F, Makinoshima, F, Imamura, P, Latcharote and S, Day.: An analysis of fatality ratios and the factors that affected human fatalities in the Great East Japan Tsunami, Earthquake Engineering, a section of the Journal, J.JSNDS- P. Peduzzi, H. Dao, C. Herold, and F. Mouton: Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.,, pp.-, m kokusei// / gaiyo.pdf dataset/show/id/ m kibanjoho.html m Bpp.- - No.pp.- N.Y. Yun and M. Hamada: Evacuation Behavior and Fatality Rate during the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake and TsunamiEarthquake Spectra, Volime, No., p-, August No.
13 J. JSNDS 要 旨 Intercept m m
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