研究成果報告書

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1 (C) Multi-agent systems for disease control and prevention TANIMURA SUSUMU ,500, ,000 3,250, ,000, ,000 1,300,000 3,500,000 1,050,000 4,550,000 1

2 (Bagni et al., 2002; Bian, 2004; Patlolla et al., 2004; Dunham, 2006) (MAS) in silico HIV/AIDS (Teweldemedhin et al., 2004) (Muller et al., 2004) (Cummings et al., 2004; Barrett et al. 2005; Riley and Ferguson, 2006) (Favier et al., 2005; Ferguson et al., 2005; Longini Jr. et al., 2005; Ferguson et al., 2006) Favier et al. (2005) 8500 in silico km 90% 27km Ohkusa et al. (2006) KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) 2 (1) (GIS) in silico GIS MAS 1998 Integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Agent Modeling Techiques (Tsou and Buttenfield, 1998; Jiang, 2000; Schüle et al., 2004; Castella et al., 2005; Brown et al., 2005; Karadimas et al., 2006) GIS GIS MAS MAS in silico GIS (2)

3 (1) OS: Ubuntu 9.04 Web Apache HTTP Server (version 2.

3 3 (1) OS: Ubuntu 9.04 Web Apache HTTP Server (version ) MySQL (version ) PHP (version 5.2.6) LAMP PHP Web (2) CDC OD (Origin-Destination) OD OD OD OD T ij 1 GIS S ij S ij = k P α i P λ j d β ij S ij = d ij /t ij t ij = 1 k d (β 1) ij P α i P λ j t ij i j OD OD α β λ 4 (1) ,

4 Northing 図2 マルチエージェント GIS プログラムの実行結果画面 Easting 図4 感染流行開始 15 日後の感染者感染者は赤丸非感染者は黒丸で示すパラメータ設定は染性期 7 日潜伏期 10 日有症状期 10 日 Northing 図 Easting Northing 感染確率 0.2, 致死率感染潜伏期 7 日感感染流行開始 24 時間後の感染者感染者は赤丸非感染者は黒丸で示すパラメータ設定は感染確率 0.2, 致死率感染潜伏期 7 日感染性期 7 日潜伏期 10 日有症状期 10 日 Easting 図5 感染流行開始 15 日後の感染者密度平面る改善と改良が必要とされさらに開発期間が必要である (2) モデル定義から流行初年度が同年である州ではそれら州のペアにおける流行遅延時間が 0 であるため拡散速度も 0 となったこの拡散速度が 0 となる州のペアを除いた拡散速度の度数分布は右に裾の長い非対称分布であった推定したモデルパラメータを用いて算出した流行口 5 千万人規模なら約 2 年で WMV 感染症が到達することが明らかになったベクターや他の宿主を考慮していない単純なモデルであるが本モデルは拡大速度の約 40% を説明した 5 主な発表論文等拡大速度を図 6 に示す人口が大きくなればなるほ雑誌論文計 5 件ど拡大速度は増し距離が大きくなればなるほど流行が到達するまでに時間がかかる例えば 500km 離れた都市では人口 100 万人規模なら約 3 年人 1 Susumu Tanimura, Vu Dinh Thiem, Hideki Yanai, Paul Kilgore, Koya Ariyoshi. Geo-

5 year Population (million) Susumu Tanimura, Kenji Nakata, and Shoji Sakano. Evaluation of tsunami affected area in Sri Lanka by using remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) for the capacity development of rapid emergency response. Tropical Medicine and Health, 35(2):224, distance (km) 6 WNV graphic demographics of Khanh Hoa, Vietnam: Appilocation of kernel density estimation. Journal of International Health 23(2): 109, Susumu Tanimura, Chushi Kuroiwa, Tsutomu Mizota. Auxilary cartographic functions in R: North arrow, scale bar, and label with leader arrow. Journal of Statistical Software, 19(Code Snippet 1): 1 8, Susumu Tanimura, Vu Dinh Thiem, Chushi Kuroiwa, Tsutomu Mizota. Regional Risk Factors Affecting Spatial Clustering of Degue Fever: Apppliation of Baysian Hierarchical Models. Tropical Medicine and Health 35(2): 225, Kensuke Goto, Susumu Tanimura, Ataru Tsuzuki, Vu Dinh Thiem, Ali Mohammad, Hideki Yanai, and Tsutomu Mizota. On the application of high resolution satellite data to GIS mapping in developing country. Tropical Medicine and Health, 35(2): , Saori Kashima, Hideki Yamamoto, 1 Natalya Shin, Susumu Tanimura. The role of distance and population size on the WNV epidemic in the US during , The Joint Meeting of the 49th Annual Meeting of Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine and the 23rd Annual Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Oct.25-26, 2008, Tokyo. 2 Susumu Tanimura, Natalya Shin. Diffusion rate of West Nile virus infection in the US, , The Joint Meeting of the 49th Annual Meeting of Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine and the 23rd Annual Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Oct.25-26, 2008, Tokyo. 3 Susumu Tanimura, Vu Dinh Thiem, Kensuke Goto, Motoki Suzuki, Tho Le Huu, Kilgore Paul, Dang Duc Anh, Koya Ariyoshi, Hideki Yanai. Exploring aggregate effect on demographic data with administrative boundaries for health policy and planning, The Joint Meeting of the 49th Annual Meeting of Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine and the 23rd Annual Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Oct.25-26, 2008, Tokyo. 4 Natalya Shin, Nader Ghotbi, and Susumu Tanimura. A Comparative Study between the Influences of Mongolian and Uzbek Traditional Swaddling Habits on the Higher Rates of Rickets. The 23th Eastern Regional Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Mar.16, 2008, Tokyo.

6 5 Viengmany Bounkham and Susumu Tanimura. Health Status and Health System in Lao PDR. The 26th Western Regional Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Mar.1, 2008, Okayama. 6 Lor Vann Thary and Susumu Tanimura. Health System and Health Status in Cambodia. The 26th Western Regional Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Mar.1, 2008, Okayama. 7 Vong Sreytouch and Susumu Tanimura. Social Marketing of HIV Prevention in Cambodia. The 26th Western Regional Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Mar.1, 2008, Okayama. 8 Natalya Shin, Nader Ghotbi and Susumu Tanimura. Higher Rates of rickets among Uzbek children raised in cradle. The 26th Western Regional Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Mar.1, 2008, Okayama. 9, Vu Dinh Thiem,,,.. 48,, , Vu Dinh Thiem,, Paul Kilgore,.. 48,, , Vu Dinh Thiem,, Paul Kilgore,.. 22,, R. 35,, ,, (1) TANIMURA SUSUMU

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_<74B0><5883><611F><67D3><30DD><30B1><30D7><30ED>_<5FF5><6821>2.pdf 33 The 33rd Annual Meeting of Japanese Society for Infection Prevention and Control The 33rd Annual Meeting of Japanese Society for Infection Prevention and Control The 33rd Annual Meeting of Japanese