2016, Japanese Journal of Family Sociology, 28(1): 11-25

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1 要約 The Demographic Transition of Japan and the Future of Regional Society Toshihiko Hara Abstract Although the aging and decreasing population is a historical consequence of demographic transition, the real nature of the present crisis consists of the below-replacement fertility rate and the migration of younger members of society seeking higher education and better employment opportunities in large cities. Historical observation shows that an expanding lifespan and survival rates at reproductive age could minimize the risk of childbearing; but even if the theoretical fertility rate met the reproductive level, women s views may remain unchanged. This made a timing shift that began in the second half of the 1970s and increased the age of marriage and childbearing, which escalated to the emergence of below-replacement fertility. Prefectural data for 2010 show a negative correlation between the percentage of those pursuing higher education at age 18 and age-specific marriage also birth rates at age 20 24, where most women are still in higher education or are newly graduated. In contrast, they indicate a positive correlation at age and older, where they try to catch up on delayed marriage and childbearing. Thus the critical condition for the recovery of replacement fertility is to change the cost/benefit balance of childbearing toward a plus value in regional communities. Key words: demographic transition, family reproduction strategy, regional revitalization School of Design, Sapporo City University, 1 Geijutsu-no-mori, Minami-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido , Japan , Japanese Journal of Family Sociology,

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14 DID * , 43: , 45: Hara, Toshihiko, 2014, A Shrinking Society: Post-Demographic Transition in Japan, Series: Springer Briefs in Population Studies, Tokyo: Springer. Kaufmann, Franz-Xaver, 2005, Schrumpfende Gesellschaft, Frankfurt: Suhrkamp. F. X., 2011, 2012a, b, c, I d, II , 2015 HP, a b e-stat.go.jp/sg1/estat/list.do?lid= , HP, all.pdf

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