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1 Journal of the Japanese Association for Petroleum Technology Vol. 74, No. 2 March, 2009 pp Lecture * ** Received February 23, 2009 accepted February 26, 2009 The impact of skyrocketing oil prices Kouichi Iwama Abstract The year 2008 was the historical and memorable year from the view of crude oil prices. Skyrocketing oil prices resulted from the following reasons. The first reason is the rapid economic growth in BRICs such as China and India. The second reason is rebirth of nationalism in major oil producing countries. The third reason is financial capitalism of crude oil future market. Now, the major players in NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange are financial institutions, hedge funds and commodity index funds. The movement of crude oil prices depends on sentimental factors such as crude oil stock level and nuclear weapon development in Iran. On July , crude oil prices reached recorded dollars per barrel. And then, crude oil prices fell rapidly to 30 dollars per barrel after the bankrupt of the famous investment bank. I think neither 150 dollars per barrel nor 30 dollars per barrel are adequate prices which reflected the fundamental of world demand and supply of crude oil. The excessive fluctuation of crude oil prices gives the great damage to all consumers and companies. The future of world economy depends upon the success of green new deal policy of the United States. Keywords Skyrocketing oil prices, BRICs, NYMEX, Oil Future Market, Hedge Funds WTI $/bbl $/bbl 100 $/bbl $/bbl NYMEX * , 20 This paper was presented at the 2008 JAPT Autumn Meeting entitled Oil and natural gas development in an environment of high oil prices held in Tokyo, Japan on October 28, ** Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Wako University 2008 OPEC $/bbl 20 $/bbl Copyright 2009 JAPT

2 BP bbl/d 200 bbl/d WTI 20 Commercial 21 Non-Commercial NYMEX bbl bbl 2 bbl/d BP J. Japanese Assoc. Petrol. Technol. Vol. 74, No

3 130 3 ICE WTI $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl WTI 30 $/bbl $/bbl WTI

4 $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl 12 OPEC $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl 1983 NYMEX WTI $/bbl $/bbl WTI % 8% BRICs MEND BNP 3 J. Japanese Assoc. Petrol. Technol. Vol. 74, No

5 132 2, , NYMEX 1 bbl/d bbl/d WTI 30 bbl/d 5, $/bbl 200 $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl 40 $/bbl % $/US gallon $/bbl WTI $/bbl OPEC 150 bbl/d

6 133 4 / IEA ,600 bbl/d 20 bbl/d 8,580 bbl/d IEA IEA OPEC OPEC bbl/d OPEC OPEC OPEC 200 bbl/d 220 bbl/d $/bbl IEA IEA J. Japanese Assoc. Petrol. Technol. Vol. 74, No

7 % 60% % IT SI bbl E 01 m 3 US gallon E 03 m

73-5 大友

73-5 大友 373 73 5 20 9 373 377 Journal of the Japanese Association for Petroleum Technology Vol. 73, No. 5 Sept., 2008 pp. 373 377 Lecture HSQE * ** Received July 31, 2008 accepted September 11, 2008 Implementation

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