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4 612 7 IMF External Sector ReportESR IMF ESR ESR MXN JPY SEK GBP NOK CAD AUD EUR DKK KRW NZD CHF USD BIS REER 612 the 2018 average REER to be somewhat overvalued, in the 6 to 12 percent range The EBA REER index model 8the EBA REER level model 11.9the External Sustainability Approach 10.3 REER REER 1.53 ESR 5 REER Japan-specific factors that affect the REER The EBA REER index model the EBA Level models 1722IMF REER a large degree of heterogeneity REER

5 IMF ECB 2 1 GDP ESFExchange Stabilization Fund 7 18 ECB EU FRB

6 7 12 BOE EU BOE ECB FRB /1/4 0bp 0bp /6/6 75bp +50bp /7/18 25bp +175bp /7/18 25bp +25bp /7/9 25bp +25bp /6/20 25bp +175bp /6/26 0bp +25bp /9/30 0bp 0bp /7/2 50bp 0bp /6/26 25bp 0bp /7/26 50bp +50bp /7/18 25bp 0bp /7/25 425bp +1600bp SELIC /6/19 0bp 50bp /6/27 0bp +100bp

7 QUICK REER ECB

8 if there is a greater possibility GDP 2 GDP GDP 2019 GDP +0.7 CPI CPI 0.1 CPI FRB FRB ECB FRB ECB

9 9 2 1 FOMC FF FRB FRB It is intended to insure against downside risks from weak global growth and trade policy uncertainty 2 FRB Mid-Cycle Adjustment NY FOMC 25bps a hawkish rate cut

10 1 100 FOMC GDP 2018 CPIPCE 2015 FF NY FOMC NY / /

11 NY FRB 6 FRB FRB / FRB FRB FRB 遡

12 ECB 辿

13 FRB FRB ECB / 6 1 / ECB

14 7 ECB MRO ECB didn t discuss them at all, really In this context, we have tasked the relevant Eurosystem Committees with examining options, including ways to reinforce our forward guidance on policy rates, mitigating measures, such as the design of a tiered system for reserve remuneration, and options for the size and composition of potential new net asset purchases 捗 ECB TLTROtargeted longer-term refinancing operationsabs SMP

15 APP 33 ECB 1 if the medium-term inflation outlook continues to fall short of our aim, the Governing Council is determined to act, in line with its commitment to symmetry in the inflation aim 1 new to our language ECB below, but close to, 2% over the medium term 22 ECB 2 2 ECB BEI ECB ECB ECB SPF Survey of 1 Professional Forecasters sturdy ECB599Q2-Q499Q1 00Q2-Q400Q

16 SPF FRB ECB 3 at least through the summer of 2019 at least through the end of at least through the first half of We now expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the first half of 2020We expect them to remain at their present or lower levels at least through the first half of APP ECB 6 1 You said that interest rates will remain at their current levels through the first half of next year, but the market is actually pricing for the next interest rate move to be a cut ECB APP APP2.6 4 QE 2014 APP APP APP APP ECB

17 APP ECB 3 the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the operation of automatic stabilisers are providing support to economic activity I think fiscal policy was important, is important, will be even more important if the economic situation deteriorates everywhere IMF ECB IMF IMF ECB ECB IMF 2ECB IMF IMF ECB IMF IMF ECB 噂 ECB 7 2 EU EU ECB IMF ECB :

18 1999 ECB EU EU EU 4 ECB 噂 ECB 3 ECB ECB 3 ECB ECB 3 ECB SSM SSM 1 1 ECB SSM ECB 2 ECB ECB ECB

19 ECB ECB ECB 6 1 ECB ECB ECB 4 ECB FRB ECB ECB IMF 6 FRB

20 EU ECB USTR EU 40 EU EU WTO 5 28 EU 3 28 WTO EU EU

21 G20 5 EU 3 EU 0.40 EU SGP 3 EU HICP/ PPP / / PPP G

22 1 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% GDP -4.0% -6.0% GDP 3-8.0% SGP Eurostat IS SGP

2017 10 17 1 2017 10 17 2 9 28 10 10 22 2020 PB 2019 10 810 5 1 2020 PB PB 1 2 PB FTPL 6 PB GDP PB 2017 10 17 3 FTPL 1 2 10 2019 4 1 2019 4 2018 10 2019 1 2014 10 2015 10 9 21 0.1 YCC 1 YCC 1 2019 2 7

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