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2 Graduate School of Policy and Management, Doshisha University 93 タイにおける教育と人的資本形成の問題点 : 概要 1 はじめに ( ) 6.2 (Jitsuchon 2012:13) 2011 (World Bank 2011) (2009: 26-27) 13 ( ) 1 (URL 1) % % 2 UNDP(URL 2:Table 6) 2005/ % (6.3% 2013 ) (5.9% 2012 ) (3.9% 2013/2014 ) (HDI) ~ 0.69 (URL 2:Table 1) (Jitsuchon 2012:13) (middle-income trap) 1 (2009:1) Jitsuchon(2012:13) (non-municipal) % (municipal) 25.3% (multidimensional poverty headcount) URL 2
3 94 2 中所得の罠 の定義 : タイは罠に陥っているのか? Gill and Kharas(2007:17) Kharas and Kohli(2011: ) World Bank(2013:12) ( ) Eichengreen, Park and Shin(2013) (2005 )10,000-11,000 15,000-16,000 2 Aiyar et al.(2013) (World Bank 2013:12; 2015:93-95)) World Bank(2013:12) (Jitsuchon 2012:14) (2015:94-95) Jitsuchon(2012:14) Aiyar et al.(2013:table A.2.1.) 中所得の罠 回避のために労働力に求められるスキル 2 Otsuka, Higuchi and Sonobe(2017:2)
4 95 Jitsuchon(2012:15) ( ) Aiyar et al.(2013:figure 7) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( GDP ) ( GDP ) 5 7 Jimenez, Nguyen and Patrinos(2012:2) Acemoglu and Autor(2010:1) (task) ADB (2008:62) Jimenez, Nguyen, and Patrinos(2012:5-10) STEM STEM Otsuka, Higuchi and Sonobe(2017:12) GDP R&D ADB(2008:67, 69-70) Schultz(1961:1) Romer(1990a, 1990b)
5 96 4 タイの教育と 中所得の罠 Hanushek and Woessmann(2008: ) 3 2 Eichengreen, Park and Shin(2013) Otsuka, Higuchi and Sonobe(2017) 4 5 ( 12 ) ( ) ( ) Hanushek and Woessmann(2008: ) (cognitive skills) ( ) ( ) ( ) Otsuka, Higuchi and Sonobe(2017:3) premature slowdown
6 97 表 1 タイとフィリピンの平均就学年数 (15 歳 -24 歳 ) URL3 Hanushek and Woessmann(2008: ) % ( 1) 2000 ( 1) World Bank(2012) PISA (15 ) 43 ~ 45 (reading) PISA PISA (World Bank 2012:19, 32) 図 1 タイとフィリピンにおける教育欠如 (15 歳 -19 歳 ) の類型 2000 Hanushek and Woessmann(2008:Figure 14) PISA2003 PISA(Programme for International Student Assessment) OECD 15 ( )
7 98 (World Bank 2012:2) TIMSS ( 8 ) ( ) (World Bank 2012:20-21) PISA ( ) World Bank(2012:21-24) 2006 PISA 2000 Jimenez, Nguyen, and Patrinos(2012: 5-10) 8 PISA( ) TIMSS( ) PISA TIMSS (World Economic Forum) 9 ( ) Psacharopoulos and Patrinos(2004) ( OECD ) (10 ) (Jimenez, Nguyen, and 7 TIMSS(Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) 4 TIMSS PISA 15 (World Bank 2012:31) PISA % OECD (72%) (100%) (Jimenez, Nguyen, and Patrinos 2012:6) 9 (business leaders) ( ) World Economic Forum(2017)
8 99 Patrinos 2012:10) 1985 ( 2) (Jimenez, Nguyen, and Patrinos 2012:11) ( ) ( ) (URL7) 表 2 タイにおける教育の私的収益率 % Hawley(2004:Table 3) Jimenez, Nguyen, and Patrinos(2012:11) GNI (2015 ) ,690 US ,990 US URL2 URL5 表 3 タイとベトナムの比較 10 TPP( ) TPP BOI( ) Senior Executive Advisor ( ) ( 2017)
9 ( ) PISA (15 ) GNI PISA (2015 ) 79.1% (URL5) World Bank(2012:26) PISA TIMSS (ONESQA: Office for National Education Standards and Quality Assessment) , ,243 (Lounkaew 2013: 213) : PISA2012 PISA2015 PISA2015 PISA % 46.7% % 5.9% -0.8 URL6 表 4 15 歳の生徒の習熟度 : PISA2012 PISA2015 PISA2015 PISA % 50.0% % 13.8% 4.4 : PISA2012 PISA2015 PISA2015 PISA % 53.8% % 19.1% ( 2017)
10 101 Lounkaew(2017) 5 結語 4.0 (Ueda 2009) 参考文献 日本語文献 (2009) (2015) 外国語文献 Acemoglu, D., and Autor, D. (2010) Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings. NBER Working Paper No Acemoglu, D., and Autor, D. (2012) What Does Human Capital Do? A Review of Goldin and Katzʼs The Race Between Education and Technology. Journal of Economic Literature, 5(2), Aiyar, S., Duval, R., Puy, D., Wu, Y., and Zhang, L. (2013) Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap. IMF Working Paper WP/13/71. Asian Development Bank (ADB). (2008) Asiaʼs Skills Crisis. In Asian Development Outlook 2008: Workers in Asia, 61-75, Asian Development Bank. Eichengreen, B., Park, D., and Shin, K. (2011) When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China. NBER working paper no Eichengreen, B., Park, D., and Shin, K. (2013) Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-income Trap. NBER Working Paper no Gill, I., and Kharas, H. (2007) An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, World Bank. Hanushek, E., and Woessmann, L. (2008) The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(3), Hawley, J. D. (2004) Changing Returns to Education in Times of Prosperity and Crisis, Thailand Economics of Education Review, 23(3), Jimenez, E., Nguyen, V., and Patrinos, H. A. (2012) Stuck in the Middle? Human Capital Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia and Thailand. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No Jitsuchon, Somchai. (2012) Thailand in a Middle-income Trap. TDRI Quarterly Review, 27(2), Kharas, Homi and Kohli, Harinder. (2011) What Is the Middle Income Trap, Why do Countries Fall into It, and How Can It Be Avoided? Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3), Lounkaew, Kiatanantha (2013) Explaining Urban-Rural Differences in Educational Achievement in Thailand: Evidence from PISA Literacy Data. Economics of Education Review, 37, Otsuka, K., Higuchi Y., and Sonobe, T. (2017) Middle-income Traps in East Asia: An Inquiry into Causes for Slowdown in Income Growth, China Economic Review, Not yet assigned to volumes /issues, Psacharopoulos, G., and Patrinos, H.A. (2004) Returns to Investment in Education: A Further Update, Education Economics, 12(2), Romer, P.M. (1990a) Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 32, Romer, P.M. (1990b) Endogenous Technological Change, Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), Part2, S71-S102. Schultz, T.W. (1961) Investment in Human Capital, The American Economic Review, 51(1), Ueda, Yoko (2009) The Origin and Growth of Local Entrepreneurs in Auto Parts Industry in Thailand. CCAS Working Paper No. 25 (Center for Contemporary Asian Studies, Doshisha University). World Bank (2011) Thailand Now an Upper Middle Income Economy, Press Release: World Bank, August 2, 2011 (Retrieved on September 12, 2017,
11 102 release/2011/08/02/thailand-now-upper-middle-income-economy). World Bank (2012) Learning Outcomes in Thailand: What Can We Learn from International Assessments?. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank (2013) China 2030 : Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Economic Forum (2017) The Global Human Capital Report 2017: Preparing People for the Future of Work, World Economic Forum. URL 1. World Bank (2017) Data, Poverty & Equity (Retrieved on October 6, 2017, 2. UNDP (2016) Human Development Reports 2016, (Retrieved on September 15, 2017, human_development_report.pdf). 3. Barro-Lee Educational Attainment Dataset, version 1.0, Jan (Retrieved on October 13, 2017, http: //barrolee.com/). 4. UNESCO (Retrieved on November 2, 2017, en/indicator/edu-attain-mys-mys). 5. World Bank (Retrieved on November 2, 2017, worldbank.org/data/). 6. PISA (Retrieved on November 2, 2017, data/). 7. ( )(2016) 2016 ( images/_reports/01/6f26fd5b57ac7b26/ pdf) その他 (2017) : ( ) (2017) : ( ) 4.0 Lounkaew, Kiatanantha (2017) Urban-Rural Differences in Educational Achievement in Thailand (presentation, 13 th International Conference on Thai Studies, Chiang Mai, Thailand, July 16, 2017).
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