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3 5 (Cordell Hull) Stephen E. Pelz, Race to Pearl Harbor: The Failure of the London Naval Conference and the Onset of World War (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1974), pp
4 (Joachim von Ribbentrop) (Franklin D. Roosevelt) Henry L
5 Stimson Jonathan G. Utley, Going to War with Japan, (Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press, 1985), pp PHP
6 Harold Ickes, The Secret Diary of Harold L. Ickes, Vol. 3, The Lowering Clouds, (New York: Simon and Shuster, 1954), p
7 Glenn H. Snyder and Paul Diesing, Conflict among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure in International Crises (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1977), pp
8 (Henry Morgenthau) (Stanley K. Hornbeck) Utley, Going to War with Japan, p
9 26 27 (Summer Welles)
10 Michael A. Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War: The Search for Economic Security, (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987), p
11 John Muller, Pearl Harbor: Military Inconvenience, Political Disaster, International Security, Vol. 16, No. 3 (Winter 1991/92), pp
12
13 Stephen Pelz, Race to Pearl Harbor, p Pelz, Race to Pearl Harbor, p
14 Scott Sagan, The Origins of the Pacific War, in Robert I Rotberg and Theodore K Rabb, eds., The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), p
15
16 (Sir Robert Craigie)
17 (unique test) Stephen Van Evera, Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997), pp Jack S. Levy, Domestic Politics and War, in Rotberg and Rabb, The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars, pp
18 Stephen Van Evera, Hypotheses on Nationalism and War, International Security, Vol. 18, No. 4 (Spring 1994), pp Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1991)
19 Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds., Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), p
20
21
22
23 4 74 (Scott Sagan) 75 (expected utility theory) (Bruce Bueno de Mesquita) 74 Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981). 75 Sagan, The Origins of the Pacific War, p
24 De Mesquita, War Trap, pp , esp., pp , 46-49,
25 Robert Butow, Tojo and the Coming of War (Princeton: Princeton University 151
26 Press, 1961), p
27 1 2 (Glenn Snyder) (Paul Diesing)(deadlock) Snyder and Deising, Conflict among Nations, pp
28 6 6 : : : : Snyder and Deising, Conflict among Nations, p
29
30
31
32 158
(2) (3) 2 vs vs (9) Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder, Democratization and War, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No
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