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1 No.95 November 2000
2 GDP 3 8 WTO
3
4 GDP III. IV. V. GDP CO 2
5
6 V 1
7 kg GDPUS
8 GDP R GDP
9 (1) E = ay P E -1 1 E Y P GNP (1) (3.07)** (2.64) * (1.20) (2.56) * (2.08) (2.92) * (0.52) (7.00) ** (3.71) ** (2.78) * (5.08) ** (5.08) ** (0.16) (3.94) ** (2.78) * (3.47) ** (0.97) (0.84) (0.76) (2.15) * (1.59) (1.02) (2.07) (0.93) (3.31)** (0.91) (1.78) (0.05) (2.18) * (0.14) (0.71) (0.25) (0.66) (0.19) (1.14) (1.94) (2.11) * (3.73) ** (9.04) ** (2.82) * (1.43) (1.58) * (0.61) (1.00) (2.63) * (1.46) (0.62) (0.72) *5% **1% 2 4
10
11 GDP (2) EaGDP (2) E GDP (2) le *lgdp p
12 7
13 1E=aY P E -1 3 (3) E a Y * P * 1 E
14 2 9
15 %1989 5,005 BD ,650 BD ,260 BD ,370 BD BD OECDIEA2000 pp.7174 WTO OECDIEA 2000 p.38 10
16 BP Amoco Statistics BD IEA World Energy Outlook BD OPEC UAE LNG 2 CNPC CNOOC 11
17
18 LNG APERC NIRA p OECD IEA ( 4.8 )
19 DOE EIA 3 US DOEEIA ,200 BD ,000 BD cfd
20 2020 OECDIEA IEA
21 IEA IEA IEA IEA IEA
22 8 17
23 9 LNG 800 m 18
24 Chokepoint km Phillips Channel 2.4km1.5 23m 23m VLCCVery Large Crude Carrier m 4.5m VLCC m 20.5m pp
25 25 DW ULCC VLCC 1973 ULCCUltra Large Crude Carrier p.248 ULCC 1 25 VLCC p km 12,000km V Suez Max km BD US DOEEIA
26
27 UN 2000 EEZ 1999 p , km Strategic Straits by Muncel Chang IMOInternational Maritime Organization STRAITREP GT 50m VHF passenger vessel VLCC 1 5,891 VLCC 3,
28 11 32%59 VLCC 25%44 VLCC 6%10 20%36 300DW 10%17 3%6 23
29 800km km 26km 300dwt , Far Eastern Economic Review Feb km 237 1, m 1 34 Southern Seaboard DEV. HO-HO 98 24
30 95 LMISLloyd s Maritime Information Services Ltd LNG LPG LNG
31 VLCC ,0007,300 20B/D 56 VLCC * ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** * ** **
32 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , % 2.9% -1.5% 1.1% 1.9% APERC
33
34 IEA IEA
35
36 15 20 EU PL LNG PLLNG 31 LNG
37 LNG LNG Inter-Connector 20 P. p.37 32
38 33
39 99 10 ASCOPEASEAN Council on Petroleum APEC , APEC APEC APEC 34
40 16 Existing Pipelines Under-Construction And Planned Pipelines km JDA 680km 280km 35
41 Spratly Islands Parcel Islands
42 ,050 2, BD 190 BD BD 18.3 BD 6 7 2, cf 2 cf 266 cf 35 cf cf 1.4 cf OECD IEA, 2000a pp
43 IMB IMO VLCC ASEAN Cooperation Project on Interconnection Power Grid MW 250MVA MW 38
44 IPP APERC 2000d (1) (2) (3) Reserve Capacity (4) (5) (6) 39
45 Reserve Margin Frequency Control 1 2 MW 6 MW Jaafar 1999 HVDC MW GW 13% Jaafar 1999 Theun Hinboun Hydro Project Jaafar 1999 Jaafar 1999 Chonglefrbanichkul 1999 SESCO TNB TNB PLN PLNPower Grid TNB SESCOPLN NPCSESB SESCOSESBDES 40
46 EGATEDL EDLEVN ,200km 40 B/D B/D OECD IEA 2000a 5,800km 3,000km 56 41
47 42
48
49 19 9 APERC 2000d TWh TWh 4050TWh APERC 2000d p.41 Belyaev, et al WTO 44
50 45
51 20 CO 2 GDP US GDP CO 2 GDP CO GDP 1 GDP CO 2 GDP 46
52 CO 2 GDP GDP 47
53 pp
54 CNOPEC CPC
55 US DOE 2000 p China National Star Petroleum Corp. Pinghu X EEZ
56 21 51
57 APEC APEC 2000 ASEAN Regional Forum APEC APEC 52
58 E = ay P E -1 (1) E E -1 a Y P GNP (1) E E* E*a Y * P * (2) E*E 1 EE -1 E*E -1 1 (3) 0 1 (3) (2) E a Y * P * 1 E -1 (4) a Y*P* constant (4) 1 * 1 * (4) (1) 1 * 1 * Contiguous Zone
59 EEZ Straits used for International Navigation ,852m ICJ
60 2 Right of Hot Pursuit Piracy p
61 EEZ m ICJ ICJ 350 2,500m EEZ EEZ 56
62 61 EEZ 62 EEZ
63 pp E P NIRA NO Volume JDC APERC, 2000a Natural Gas Pipeline Development in Northeast Asia APERC, 2000b Natural Gas Pipeline Development in Southeast Asia APERC, 2000c Emergency Oil Stocks and Energy Security in the APEC Region 58
64 APERC, 2000d Power Inter Connection in the APEC Region APERC, 2000e Energy Efficiency Indicators APERC, 2000f Electricity Sector Deregulation ASCOPE ASEAN Council on Petroleum, 1999 Forum on Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline & Power Grids Forum Papers Belyaev, L et al 1998 The Ways of Creating International Interconnection of East Asia and Environmental Implications paper presented at the workshop on Feasibility of Regional Power Interconnection Network in APEC Region, July 1998, in Tokyo Chonglefrbanichkul, Prutichai 1999 Issues on Power Grids Interconnection ASEAN s experience paper presented at ASCOPEASEAN Council on Petroleum, Oct Forum on Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline & Power Grids Jaafar, Fuad 1999 ASEAN Power Grid paper presented at ASCOPEASEAN Council on Petroleum, Oct Forum on Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline & Power Grids Jung, Yonghun, David Cope, ivan Jaques, Naoko Doi, 2000 Electricity Sector Deregulation in the Asia Pacific Region APERC OECD IEA, 1999 Coal in the Energy Supply of China OECD IEA, 1999 World Energy Outlook 1999 Insights OECD IEA, 2000a China s Worldwide Quest for Energy Security OECD IEA, 2000b World Oil Transit Chokepoints OECD IEA, 2000c East Asia: The Energy Situation OECD IEA, 2000d World Oil Transit Chokepoint OECD IEA, 1995 Oil Supply Security : The Emergency Response Potential of IEA Countries UN 2000 Oceans and Law of the Sea Status UNCLOS and the Agreement on Part XI, UN Division for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2000a APEC: Energy Issues and Trends DOE/EIA-0635 May 2000 US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2000b South China Sea Region January 2000 Wang, Haijian Henry, 1999 China s Oil Industry & Market Elsevier World Bank, 1998 Developing International Power Markets in East Asia Public Policy for the Private Sector, Note No. 143, May 1998 URL 59
65 Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University Strategic Forum, Southeast Asian Chokepoints Malaysia Marine Department Peninsular STRAITREP: Mandatory Ship Reporting System in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore OECD IEA Oil Spill Intelligence Report Petroleum Authority of Thailand Thai Petroleum Industry: Milestones of Rosenberg, David 1999 Environmental Pollution around the South China Sea: Developing a regional response to a regional problem The Australian National University Working Paper 1999/20, Canberra, WWW South China Sea Virtual Library The South China Sea Strategic Straits by Muncel Chang APERC, 1998 APEC Energy Demand and Supply updated September 1998 BP Amoco, 2000 Statistical Review of World Energy June 2000 Department Statistics Malaysia Yearbook of Statistics Malaysia Directorate General of Sea Communication Indonesia Data of Distribution Export and Import Port of Singapore Authority Singapore Port Statistics 60
140 NDPG Defense of Japan 2010, pp. 2-3.
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