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1 A Web Web 6 B
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7 2 I III I. II. III. 1 9 I III I II 2 I III 3 II III 4 I 5 II 3 e 1 e 2 ( ) = a + b ( ) + e 1 ( ) = c + d ( ) + e 2 7
8 I III I. e 1 e 2 II. III. 1 I III I II 2 I III 3 II III 4 I II III 5 I II III % ( ) JPN (2014) USA (2013) SWE (2012) CHN (2012) DEU (2011)
9 I III I. II. III. I III I 2 II 3 III 4 I II 5 I III 9
10 % 2 2.0% 3 2.2% 4 2.5% 5 2.7% r r r { ( )} % { (100.0 ) 1/ } % 89.5 { (100.0 ) } 1/ % { (100.0 ) 1/ } % 89.5 { (100.0 ) } 1/ % 10
11 ( ) 5 ( ) 11
12 7 S T U 3 2 S 2 T U T U T U S T p U q 0 < p < q < 1 1 T U T S pq 2 pq + qp 3 p(1 q) + q(1 p) 4 pq(1 p) 5 pq + (1 p)qp 2 S U U U T U T U T S 2 U T U S 3 p q S 4 S 5 T U 8 6 4, ,
13 X Y E[X], E[Y ], E[XY ] V [X], V [Y ] E[X] = 2.0, E[Y ] = 3.0, E[XY ] = 6.3, V [X] = 1.0, V [Y ] = E[X 2 ], E[Y 2 ] Cov[X, Y ] E[X 2 ] = 4.0, E[Y 2 ] = 9.0, Cov[X, Y ] = E[X 2 ] = 4.0, E[Y 2 ] = 9.0, Cov[X, Y ] = E[X 2 ] = 4.0, E[Y 2 ] = 9.0, Cov[X, Y ] = E[X 2 ] = 5.0, E[Y 2 ] = 10.0, Cov[X, Y ] = E[X 2 ] = 5.0, E[Y 2 ] = 10.0, Cov[X, Y ] = X Y U V U = 3X 2, V = 2Y 4 U V Cov[U, V ] r[u, V ] Cov[U, V ] = 0.3, r[u, V ] = Cov[U, V ] = 6.0, r[u, V ] = Cov[U, V ] = 6.0, r[u, V ] = Cov[U, V ] = 1.8, r[u, V ] = Cov[U, V ] = 1.8, r[u, V ] =
14 10 X 1,..., X n µ σ 2 (> 0) X = 1 n X i S 2 = 1 n (X i n n 1 X) 2 i=1 i=1 1 σ 2 = 1 P ( X µ 0.5) 0.95 n n = 20 X = S 2 = 5.41 µ 95% ± ± ± ± ± % 15 4, ,542 2, , % ± ± ± ± ±
15 2 n 1 = 4633, ˆp 1 = 0.071, N 1 = , n 2 = 2849, ˆp 2 = 0.092, N 2 = N 1ˆp 1 + N 2ˆp 2 N 1 + N 2 2 N 1ˆp 1 + N 2ˆp 2 N 1 + N 2 ( )2 N1 ˆp 1 (1 ˆp 1 ) + N 1 + N 2 n 1 3 ˆp 1 + ˆp ˆp 1 + ˆp ˆp 1 + ˆp 2 n 1 + n 2 ˆp 1 (1 ˆp 1 ) n 1 ( N2 ˆp 1 (1 ˆp 1 ) n N 1 + N 2 ˆp 2 (1 ˆp 2 ) n 2 )2 ˆp 2 (1 ˆp 2 ) ˆp 2 (1 ˆp 2 ) n 2 n 2 15
16 A B C D E F ,549 G H I J K L , t t F
17 13 X P 0 P 1 X 1 H 0 : X P 0 H 1 : X P 1 H 0 X (P 0 ) x P (X = x) H 1 X (P 1 ) x P (X = x) X 3 I X 2 II X = 6 III I II III I III 0.3 III I 2 I III 0.3 I III 3 I II 0.2 II I 4 I II 0.2 I II 5 I II III 17
18 14 T 47 log( ) = α + β 1 + β 2 log( ) + β 3 log( ) % Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) log( ) e-09 log( ) Residual standard error: on 43 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: , Adjusted R-squared: F-statistic: on 3 and 43 DF, p-value: 8.353e log( ) 5.6 log( ) 5.3 log( ) β β 3 = 0.5 β % 2 1% 3 5% 4 10% 5 15% 18
19 3 I III I. 1% 0 2 II. III I III I 2 III 3 I II 4 I III 5 II III 19
20 χ ( ) 2 ( )2 ( )2 ( ) ( ) 2 ( )2 ( )2 ( ) ( ) 2 + ( ) 2 + ( ) 2 + ( ) ( ) 2 ( ) 2 ( ) 2 ( ( ) 2 ( ) 2 ( ) 2 ( ) 2 ) 2 20
21 , 69.04, 14.96, 6.39, χ 2 1 χ 2 5% 5% 2 χ 2 1 χ 2 5% 5% 3 χ 2 1 χ 2 5% 5% 4 χ 2 1 χ 2 5% 5% 5 χ 2 1 χ 2 5% 5% A 41 B A 19.5 B % (20, 40) F ( ) 5% ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1.34 ( ) 2 ( ) 1.81 ( ) 3 ( ) 1.81 ( ) 4 ( ) 2.13 ( ) 5 ( ) 2.13 ( ) 21
22 22
23 23
24 1. Q(u) 0 u u u = Q(u) u = Q(u) = u 24
25 2. t = 4 0 t ( ) ν ν t α t t α (ν) ν = 20 5% (α = 0.05) t 0.05 (20) = α 25
26 3. = ( ) ν ν α χ 2 χ 2 α(ν) ν = 20 5% (α = 0.05) χ (20) = α 26
27 4. F 1 = 10 2 = 20 0 F ( 1, 2) α = 0.05 ν2 \ ν α = ν2 \ ν (ν1, ν2) F α F Fα(ν1, ν2) ν1 = 5, ν2 = 20 5% (α = 0.05) F0.05(5, 20) =
28
201711grade2.pdf
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