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1 : : : " " ( ) " " Philip Arestis 2 - Malcolm Sawyer 3 - New Consensus

2 E5, E52 :JEL : " " ( ) ( ) ( " " ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) " " ( Meyer, ( ( ) ) Howells,1996, Arestis & 12 Lavoie, ) repo 6 1( ) (USA)

3 ( ) : " " (NCM) ( ) " " ( ) ( ) : " " " "

4 " " ( Clarida McCallum (Meyer Y g t = a 0 + a 1 Y g t-1 + a 2 E t (Y g t+1) ィC a 3 [R t -E t (p t+1 )] +S 1 (1) (2) 6 1( = 1 3 P t = b 1 Y g t + b 2 P t -1 + b 3 E t (p t-1 ) +S 2, (b 2 + b R t = RR * + E t (p t+1 ) + C 1 (Y g t-1) + C 2 (p t-1 ィC P T ) (3) Y g R P P T * RR " " (2) (1,2=i) S i E t t (1) NCM 6 1( ) (1) (2) (3) ( ) (2004c).Arestis and Sawyer 2 - Taylor's Rule

5 " " (3) C C (2005) Fair (3) ( ) ( (Taylor, " " ) ) ) ) (3) * RR (1) a 0 a/ * RR ( ) (1) * RR

6 1313 ) " " ( ) (1997) Gordon ) " " ) " GDP GDP "6 1 17) ( Clarida ( ( ) : ( ) ( ) ( " ") ( ) ( ) " " Wicksell " " " "

7 Arestis ) (A Sawyer ECB ( , , ) " " :

8 1313 ) ( ) Chick12 (2002) Dow " "6 1.( " " ( Arestis B12Sawyer ) " " (2) [ ]

9 (2) ( ( )) ) ( (2) ) ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

10 ( Bernanke ) = g Y ( ) " "126 1 a 0 a/ * RR ( ) a 0 /a ) ) NAIRU (Dalziel,2002) ( ) Trend Level

11 a 0 /a ( ) " " Arestis 12 12(2004 A) Sawyer ( ) ( ) The Narrow Credit Channel 2 - The Broad Credit Chanel 3 - Bank Lending Channel 4 - Balance Sheet Channel 5 - Interest Rate Channel 6 - Monetarist Channel

12 (1) ( ) ( ) Wealth Effect Channel 2 - Exchange Rate Channel

13 NCM ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

14 ) ) ( ) : " " " "6 1 ) ) ( ) (1) " " " " ( ) ( ) Overshooting argument

15 ( ) Dow,2002).(Chick and (1) 12 (2) NCM

16 (1996 Howells,.(Arestis and ( ) (2003) Arestis 12 Sawyer [ ] (1989 (Moore " "

17 ( ) ( ) ( )

18 ( ) ( )

19 ( Weiss,1981.(Stiglitz and ( ) ( " " )

1 2

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