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1 An Empirical Analysis of the Relationships among Distribution Channels in the Japanese Music Market ABSTRACT This study constructed a simultaneous equation model of CD sales and rentals, using the data by title of CDs appearing on the Rental Top 100 from 2005 to 2009 in order to investigate the relationship between the sale of a CD and its rental as well as the relationship between a CD and music distribution via networks. The results found both that a CD with high sales was rented frequently and that a CD that was rented frequently had a large amount of sales. This study also showed that the impact of an artist s previous performance on CD sales and rental differed, implying that consumers decided whether they purchased or rented a CD by different criteria. In addition, while hit music in the network distribution market was likely to become hit music in the CD retail market, a similar relationship between hits in the network distribution and rental markets was not found. * Sumiko ASAI Vol.29 No.2 (2011) 45
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5 日本の音楽市場における媒体間の関係に関する実証分析 表1 基本統計量 Sale CD販売枚数 Rental レンタル回数 Artist アーティストの過去の販売金額 Net ダウンロード回数の順位 Company 大手レコード会社 1 Man 男性ソロ 1 Woman 女性ソロ 1 Omnibus オムニバス形式 1 Foreign 洋楽 1 エンタメ マーケット白書 に掲載された 年間販売枚数の100位以内には達していない アルバ 情報から 上位1000までの楽曲が入手可能である ムでは複数年にわたってレンタルの年間ヒットチャー 本研究の分析対象は レンタル年間上位100の楽曲で トに登場するものが多いこと シングルでは 楽曲に あるが これらの楽曲にはCD販売枚数が上位100位 よって販売とレンタルのヒットの程度に差があるもの 以内に入っていないものも含まれている が多く 消費者がシングルやアルバムの購入とレンタ 本論文では サンプル数は少なくなるが 2005年 ルを異なる基準で選択していることをうかがわせる から2009年の5年間のヒットチャートで CD販売枚 CDの販売枚数 アーティストの過去の販売実績 数とレンタル回数の双方において 年間上位100位以 アーティストの性別 邦楽と洋楽の別 オムニバス形 内に入ったシングルとアルバムの需要関数の推定も行 式が否か レコード会社の種別 シングルトラックの った これらは 小売市場とレンタル市場の双方で 年間ランキングについては オリコン年鑑 かなりの程度ヒットしたCDということになる この と ORICON エンタメ マーケット白書 場合のサンプル数は シングルで269 アルバムで276 から入手した レンタル回数については 日本コンパ である 換言すれば シングルのサンプル478のうち クトディスク ビデオレンタル商業組合が集計したレ 販売枚数が年間100位以内に入らなかったCDタイト ンタルの年間ランキング上位100のデータである ル数は209であり サンプル数の43.72 を占める ア シングルとアルバムの基本統計量は 表1のとおり ルバムでは 387のうち に相当する111が である (a)欄は レンタル回数が年間100位以内で Vol.29 No.2 (2011) 49
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7 日本の音楽市場における媒体間の関係に関する実証分析 である 双方とも 1 水準で有意であり これら(a) (a)欄のシングルでは 販売枚数とレンタル回数を 欄のアルバムにおける2つの相関係数は (a)欄のシン 示すα1とβ1は 1 水準で有意な正の値である レ グルの相関係数 0.164と0.084 より高い アルバム ンタル回数の販売枚数への影響を示すα1は1.1221で の(a)欄及び(b)欄に共通して アーティストの過去の 販売枚数のレンタル回数への影響を示すβ1の 販売実績と販売枚数との相関係数の方が アーティ より大きい 一方 (b)欄のシングルのα1とβ1の差 ストの過去の販売実績とレンタルとの相関係数よりも は0.0546で 差は大幅に縮小している これには (a) 大きい 欄における販売とレンタルのヒットの程度の差が 推 定値の差として表れていると考えられる アーティス 5 結果 最初に (1)項で需要関数の推定結果を示し (2)項 で推定結果の含意を考察する トの販売実績のシングル販売枚数への影響を示すα2 については 1 水準で有意な正の値 レンタル回数 の推定値β2は負の値である Artistの推定値α2が正 β2が負であることは すべてのケースに当てはまる ここから 販売実績のあるアーティストの楽曲は 小 (1) 推定結果 本論文では システム全体の情報を使い 漸近的 売市場でヒットする確率を高めるが アーティストの に有効な推定量を得ることができる3段階最小二乗 過去の実績は レンタル市場におけるヒットとは結び 9 法で (1)と(2)を同時推定した 表3が その推定結果 である 表3の(a)欄及び(b)欄の定義は 表1や表2 と同じである ついていないと判断される また ダウンロード回数の順位(Net)を示すα 3 は であることから 配信順位としての数値 表3 推定結果 Vol.29 No.2 (2011) 51
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9 Vol.29 No.2 (2011) 53
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11 Factor Analysis of Demand Growth for Information Technology Input in Japan, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, (13) 8, Scale Economies and Scope Economies in the Japanese Broadcasting Market, Information Economics and Policy, 18 (3), Sales Patterns of Hit Music in Japan, Journal of Media Economics, 22 (2), Vol.29 No.2 (2011) 55
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