第2章
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1 2 IPCC SRES IPCC IPCC 8 IPCC 1992 Houghton et al, 1992 IS92aIPCC 1992 a IPCC Alcamo et al, 1994 IPCC 1996 IPCC IPCC 3 IPCC IPCC 3 3 IPCC 3
2 Special Report on Emission Scenarios SRES SRES 2SRES SRES 5 Morita and Lee, SRES 10 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions (index, 1990=1) range (all scenarios) 5% % 75% 25% Intervention Non-classified Non-intervention
3 AIM ICF Consulting ASF RIVM IMAGE MARIA IIASA MESSAGE PNNL MiniCAM 4 4 GDP A1 A2B1 B2 A
4 A1 4 A1C A1G A1T A1B A1 A1B A B B
5 CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O SO B1 CO 2 B2 A1 CO 2 CO 2 A1 A2 2.4 SOx IPCC IS92a SOx SOx GDP 3 5 SOx U SOx 2.2 SRES 7
6 2.2 SRES A1 CO2 (GtC) 13.5 ( ) CH4 (MtCH4) Low 289 ( ) N2O (MtN) 7.0 ( ) HFC, PFC, SF6 (MtC equiv.) Total of 824 CO (MtCO) 1663 ( ) NMVOCs (Mt) 193 ( ) NOx (MtN) ( ) SOx (MtS) Low 27.6 ( ) A1C High ( ) : ( ) ( ) as A1 High: ( ) : ( ) High: ( ) High: ( ) A1G High ( ) ( ) ( ) as A1 High: ( ) : ( ) High: ) Low: ( ) A1T Low ( ) Low: ( ) Low: ( ) as A1 : ( ) Low: ( ) Low: ( ) Very low: ( ) A2 High 29.1 ( ) High 889 ( ) 16.5 ( ) High Total of 1096 High 2325 ( ) High 342 ( ) Very high ( ) High 60.3 ( ) B1 Low 4.2 ( ) Low 236 ( ) 5.7 ( ) by 2100 Low Total of 386 by 2100 Low 363 ( ) Low 87 (58-349) by 2100 Low 18.7 ( ) Very low 24.9 ( ) B ( ) 597 ( ) 6.9 ( ) Moderately high Total of ( ) 170 ( ) High 61.2 ( ) Low ( ) [MtS] Fossil and Industrial CO2 A1-AIM A1-ASF A1-IMAGE A1-MESSAGE A1-MiniCAM A1-MARIA A1C-AIM A1C-MESSAGE A1C-MiniCAM A1G-AIM A1G-MESSAGE A1G-MiniCAM A1v1-MiniCAM A1v2-MiniCAM A1T-AIM A1T-MESSAGE A1T-MARIA A2-ASF A2-AIM A2G-IMAGE A2-MESSAGE A2-MiniCAM A2-A1-MiniCAM B1-IMAGE B1-AIM B1-ASF B1-MESSAGE B1-MARIA B1-MiniCAM B1T-MESSAGE B1High-MESSAGE B1High-MiniCAM B2-MESSAGE B2-AIM B2-ASF B2-IMAGE B2-MARIA B2-MiniCAM B2High-MiniCAM B2C-MARIA 5% 25% MEAN MEDIAN 75% 95% SRES 36 8
7 [MtS] SOx A1-AIM A1-ASF A1-IMAGE A1-MESSAGE A1-MiniCAM A1-MARIA A1C-AIM A1C-MESSAGE A1C-MiniCAM A1G-AIM A1G-MESSAGE A1G-MiniCAM A1v1-MiniCAM A1v2-MiniCAM A1T-AIM A1T-MESSAGE A1T-MARIA A2-ASF A2-AIM A2G-IMAGE A2-MESSAGE A2-MiniCAM A2-A1-MiniCAM B1-IMAGE B1-AIM B1-ASF B1-MESSAGE B1-MARIA B1-MiniCAM B1T-MESSAGE B1High-MESSAGE B1High-MiniCAM B2-MESSAGE B2-AIM B2-ASF B2-IMAGE B2-MARIA B2-MiniCAM B2High-MiniCAM B2C-MARIA 5% 25% MEAN MEDIAN 75% 95% SRES 36 5 SRES IPCC SRES IPCC SRES B1 A1 A1G A1T 1 SRES SRES SRES SRES IPCC 9
8 TAR SRES Post-SRES 9 SRES SRES IPCC Alcamo, J., A. Bouwman, J. Edmonds, A. Gruebler, T. Morita and A. Sugandhy (1995): An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. In Climate Change 1994, Cambridge University Press, Houghton, J.T. et al (ed) (1992): Climate Change the Suppliment Report to The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, 200pp. IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge, London, (to be published). Morita, T. and H. Lee (1997) Emission scenario Database prepared for IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios convened by Dr. Nebosja Nakicenovic. 10
9 2.2 1 driving forces driving forces 4 narrative Huntington SRES SRES A1A2B1B2 4 AB driving forces GDP CO 2 harmonized 40 marker scenarios 40 SRES 4 4 SRES A1A2B1B2 4 SRES Harmonized Scenarios harmonized Harmonized ScenariosHS Fully Harmonized Scenarios Globally Harmonized Scenarios 11
10 Non Harmonized Scenarios 2.5 SRES A1 A1C A1G A1B A1T A2 B1 B2 Globally Harmonized Scenarios Other Scenarios OECD90 REF ASIA ALM 1990 OECD II NAM WEU PAO OECD I EEU FSU I CPA SAS PAS I LAM MEA AFR 12
11 2.3 A GDP 2100 GDP US IIASA 1.3 A IIASA GDP US B1 21 A1 GDP US IIASA B2 A2 A1 B GDP US 13
12 1A1 1 WEC A1B A1C A1C A1T GDP US ,000 US GDP 1.3 2A
13 ,200 US ,000 US GDP US A1 GDP GDP A2 A2 A2 A2 15
14 3B1 A1 A A1 A1 B1 GDP US ,000 US A1 1/3 organization measures 16
15 A B2 A ,000 US GDP US A1 B1 A1 B1 A2 17
16 GDP
17 2.4 1A1 A1B A1 A1C clean coal A1G A1T 2A2 1 GDP 19
18 3B1 4B2 A1B1 20
19 2.6 SRES A1 A2 B1 B2 Resource Availability 21
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