FAST RETAILING WASEDA University Ryo Takahata Yasushi Kobayashi Eriko Kawamoto Ayaka Moriwake
The Investment Recommendation Basic clothing The system of SPA High-quality and Low-price Growth in overseas market Target stock prices :21556 Yen Current stock prices :13720 Yen
Company Overview Fast Retailing is the Japanese apparel retailing company which has UNIQLO brand and which offers high-quality basic clothing at reasonable prices.
Corporate Statement Changing clothes. Changing conventional wisdom. Change the world.
Net Sales Net Sales: 814 billion Yen = 12.5 billion S Dollars (1 S$=65Yen) Number of Shops: Japan :878 World :136 Global Brands 17% UNIQLO International 9% Net Sales Component Ratio UNIQLO Japan 74%
SPA Model(Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel ) design production final sale
Strong Points of the Business 1Basic Clothing 2High Quality Clothing 3 Strong Points 3Low Price Clothing
1Basic Clothing Anybody can wear Not affected by trend Can target every generation
Position in Apparel Market High Quality Basic Specialty Shops Fashion GMS Low Quality
2High-Quality Clothing Can focus on the same products for a long time Can improve the products as a result of trial and erro
3 Low Price Clothing Excluding the middleman Most of the products of them are made in China Placing large amount of orders on factories
The Current and Future Situation of FR UNIQLO Japan UNIQLO International
UNIQLO Japan Nation s largest apparel retailer Ranking Company Type of Business Appar el Retail Sales ( billion) Y/Y (%) 1 UNIQLO Specialty Store 571.9 12.5 2 Shimamura Specialty Store 440.1 2.4 3 Sogo and Seibu Department Store 384.4 4.3 4 Takashimaya Department Store 325.2 1.6 5 Daimaru Matsuzakaya Department Store 258.7 22.0 6 Isetan Department Store 255.8 8.2 Notes: Taken from the "FY2010 Buying Power Rankings" published in the Nikkei MJ (June 29, 2011)
Trend of Japanese Apparel Retailing Market (billions of yen) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Scale of Apparel Retailing Market 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Business recession Aging society with a falling birthrate UNIQLO Japan s Growth
UNIQLO International Stores 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Store Number Trends UNIQLO international Stores in China Focus on China
Advantage in China 1 Population of Middle-Income Group ( thousand) 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 Estimate 856,589 990,415 600,000 555,112 400,000 200,000 0 220,000 2001 2009 2015 2020
Advantage 中国での優位性 in China 2 2 High Basic Fashion Point!! Low The number of branch shop in China
Future Net Sales Net sales =Numbers of store Net sales per store Net sales per square meter Floor area per store
Future Net Sales Net sales = Number of store Net sales per square meter Floor area per store
Future Net Sales of UNIQLO International Number of stores Increase in 50 stores every year China Net sales per square meter Reach the same level as Japanese stores by 2020. Floor area per store Large scale stores:1566m²
Stores Trends of Net Sales and Number of Stores 2500 Millions of yen (1S$=65 Yen) 2000 2,000,000 Others 1500 1000 500 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Other Asia China UNIQLO Japan 0 0
Valuation : DCF Method Calculate free cash flow from future net sales Prediction term: 10 years WACC : 5.06% Permanent growing rate : 2% Target stock prices :21556 Yen Current stock price: 13720Yen
Conclusion Basic clothing The system of SPA The Investment High-quality and Low-price Recommendation BUY Growth in overseas market The target stock prices :21556 Yen
Thank you for listening
Risk Factor Key Person Risk Risk of reliance on certain regions for production Risk of operations outside Japan
Future Net Sales of UNIQLO Japan Net sales =Number of store Net sales per store Net sales per square meter of retail floor space Shopfloor area per store Number of store The pace of opening large scale stores will decrease. Net sales per square meter of retail floor space Square stays the same (about 0.9 million) Shopfloor area per store Normal stores 766m² Large scale stores 1566m²
Worldwide Apparel Specialty Stores Company Name Sales(Billio Change Count ry (Flagship Brand) ns of dollar) (%)(local base) INDITEX(ZARA) Spain 17.8 13 H&M Sweden 17.2 0.7 GAP USA 14.7 3.3 FAST RETAILING (UNIQ LO ) J apan 9.8 18. 9 Limited Brands USA 9.6 11.4 NEXT UK 5.6 1.4 Polo Ralph Lauren USA 5 0.8 Esprit Hong Kong 4.3 2.2 Abercrombie & Fitch USA 3.5 18.4 Liz Claiborne USA 2.5 14.3 Notes: Compiled from the annual reports of the companies listed above.
Future net sales Furure Net Sales 2002.8 2003.8 2004.8 2005.8 2006.8 2007.8 2008.8 2009.8 2010.8 Net sales 344170 309789 339999 383973 448819 525203 586451 685043 814811 UNIQLO Japan 365305 393608 424701 462343 538187 605561 UNIQLO International 3078 8737 16998 29344 37789 72792 Others 15588 46471 83503 94761 109064 136455 2011.8 2012.8 2013.8 2014.8 2015.8 2016.8 2017.8 2018.8 2019.8 2020.8 Net sales 818279 997283 1067542 1142990 1223629 1348274 1486910 1639534 1809759 1997584 UNIQLO Japan 577100 712696 730747 745188 756018 763238 766849 766849 766849 766849 UNIQLO International 104724 148132 200340 261348 331156 448581 583606 736231 906456 1094280 Others 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 Stores Total store 2002.8 2003.8 2004.8 2005.8 2006.8 2007.8 2008.8 2009.8 2010.8 The number of total store 585 621 655 1232 1632 1828 1958 2258 2203 Total UNIQLO 585 621 646 693 750 787 813 862 944 UNIQLO Japan 570 595 637 679 720 748 759 770 808 Standard store 570 595 637 676 713 720 709 699 706 Large-scale store 3 7 28 50 71 102 UNIQLO international 15 26 9 14 30 39 54 92 136 China 5 6 8 7 9 13 33 54 Other Asia 0 0 0 0 11 18 26 43 64 Others 15 21 3 6 12 12 15 16 18 Other project 9 539 882 1041 1145 1396 1259 Furure total store 2011.8 2012.8 2013.8 2014.8 2015.8 2016.8 2017.8 2018.8 2019.8 2020.8 The number of total store 2178 2230 2282 2334 2386 2488 2590 2692 2794 2896 Total UNIQLO 1037 1089 1141 1193 1245 1347 1449 1551 1653 1755 UNIQLO Japan 854 854 854 854 854 854 854 854 854 854 Standard store 717 687 662 642 627 617 612 612 612 612 Large-scale store 137 167 192 212 227 237 242 242 242 242 UNIQLO international 183 235 287 339 391 493 595 697 799 901 China 77 127 177 227 277 327 377 427 477 527 Other Asia 87 87 87 87 87 137 187 237 287 337 Others 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 Other project 1141 1141 1141 1141 1141 1141 1141 1141 1141 1141
60 (%) Gross Margin 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FAST RETAILING Averageof ZARA,H&M,GAP Industry average in Japan (%) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Operating Margin 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FAST RETAILING Averageof ZARA,H&M,GAP Industry average in Japan
35 30 (%) ROE 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FAST RETAILING Averageof ZARA,H&M,GAP Industry average in Japan (%) 25 ROA 20 15 10 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FAST RETAILING Averageof ZARA,H&M,GAP Industry average in Japan
80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% ROIC 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FAST RETAILING H&M GAP ZARA
Balance Sheet (milions of yen) Condenced Consolidated Balance Sheet 2002.8 2003.8 2004.8 2005.8 2006.8 2007.8 2008.8 2009.8 2010.8 Assets Cush and time deposit 67771 76447 83862 74759 121950 64091 67248 43876 62466 Funds surplus Acounts receivable trade 3143 4277 3223 4472 8396 9849 13411 15213 15371 Inventries 30995 20867 28803 33594 42862 55173 53778 74580 74079 Defferd tax assets 293 4365 3755 2894 928 1752 2545 22187 29715 others 64394 64581 60511 64332 76190 87113 126714 142315 163994 Total current assets 166596 170537 180154 180051 250326 217978 263696 298171 345625 Total tangible assets 15910 14720 15819 18676 29892 37339 40317 45946 50144 Goodwill 0 0 0 10787 32996 32536 28122 39399 28798 others 783 3351 4852 6366 8225 10465 12715 15913 19042 Total intangible fixed assets 783 3351 4852 17153 41221 43001 40837 55312 47840 Total investments and other assets 27630 31245 40071 56965 58213 61450 59868 63854 63678 (Investment in securities) 63 584 6093 7431 1146 907 669 686 844 (Long-term loans reciable) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total fixed assets 44323 49316 60742 92794 129326 141790 141022 165112 161662 Total assets 210919 219853 240896 272845 379652 359768 404718 463283 507287 Liabilities Accounts payable trade 48146 43236 44706 33718 42794 40568 57035 56930 54098 Short-term loans payable 1809 0 0 0 668 512 527 11775 7414 New borrowing Current portion of lomg-term debt 0 0 0 0 2521 4484 3201 3098 9944 Income tax repayable 0 7750 14840 12213 30340 14393 24570 27022 31512
Total fixed assets 44323 49316 60742 92794 129326 141790 141022 165112 161662 Balance Sheet Total assets 210919 219853 240896 272845 379652 359768 404718 463283 507287 Liabilities Accounts payable trade 48146 43236 44706 33718 42794 40568 57035 56930 54098 Short-term loans payable 1809 0 0 0 668 512 527 11775 7414 New borrowing Current portion of lomg-term debt 0 0 0 0 2521 4484 3201 3098 9944 Income tax repayable 0 7750 14840 12213 30340 14393 24570 27022 31512 others 32631 27544 18717 28282 36169 30601 33258 76777 99650 Total current liabilities 82586 78530 78263 74213 112492 90558 118591 175602 202618 Long-term loans payable 4000 0 52 4945 19584 19432 16288 17980 5865 Reserve for retirement benefits 0 0 0 200 437 393 253 307 0 others 703 820 1148 5992 6662 6104 5573 7982 10816 Total fixed liabikities 4703 820 1200 11137 26683 25929 22114 26269 16681 Total liabilities 87289 79350 79463 85350 139175 116487 140705 201871 219299 Net assets Common stock 3274 3274 10273 10273 10273 10273 10273 10273 10273 Capital surplus 11579 11579 4578 4579 4999 4999 4999 5000 5000 Legal reserve of retained earnings 124686 141406 163982 184293 211135 228958 259756 295442 336739 Treasury stocks -16021-16027 -16034-16040 -15539-15546 -15556-16254 -16260 Owner's equity 123518 140232 162799 183105 210868 228684 259472 294461 335752 Accumulated other comprehensive profit 114 273-1365 -755 17359 11460 2496-34822 -50313 Minority stockholder's equity 0 0 0 5146 12252 3139 2046 1774 2548 Total net assets 123632 140505 161434 187496 240479 243283 264014 261413 287987 Total liabilities and net assets 210919 219853 240896 272845 379652 359768 404718 463283 507287
Balance Income Statement Sheet (milions of yen) Consolidated profit and loss statement 2002.8 2003.8 2004.8 2005.8 2006.8 2007.8 2008.8 2009.8 2010.8 Net sales 344170 309789 339999 383973 448819 525203 586451 685043 814811 Cost of sales 193765 172724 176804 213682 236401 276808 292769 343515 393930 Gross profit 150405 137065 163194 170290 212418 248395 293682 341528 420881 Depliciation 1930 2272 1840 2433 5409 6567 8523 9765 12229 Others 98057 93485 97400 111165 136653 176864 197666 223123 276274 Selling, general and administrative expenses 99987 95757 99240 113598 142062 183431 206189 232888 288503 Operaring incom 50418 41308 63954 56692 70355 64963 87493 108639 132378 Interest incom 676 374 506 790 1045 1314 2240 847 344 others 749 447 407 1939 3215 2953 513 881 657 Non-operating income 1425 821 913 2729 4260 4267 2753 1728 1001 Interest payed 406 332 169 344 853 1775 1635 917 500 others 328 228 515 470 624 2851 2912 8142 9124 Non-operating expenses 734 560 684 814 1477 4626 4547 9059 9624 Ordinary income 51110 41569 64183 58607 73138 64604 85698 101308 123755 Extraordinary profit 109 0 0 6040 1300 1903 1027 464 917 Extraordinary loss 773 6818 7735 6631 1685 3794 4731 6285 7804 Net income before income tax 50445 34751 56448 58016 72752 62713 81994 95487 116867 Total income, inhabitant and business tax 22595 13817 25083 24058 30933 30775 38128 45433 54215 Net income before minority stockholder's prof 27850 20934 31365 33958 41819 31938 43866 50054 62652 Minority stockholder's profit 0 0 1 73 1381 163 336 257 971 Net income 27850 20933 31365 33884 40437 31775 43529 49797 61681
Cash Flow Statement (milions of yen) Cash flow statement 2002.8 2003.8 2004.8 2005.8 2006.8 2007.8 2008.8 2009.8 2010.8 Operating cash flow 30780 39563 13702 49965-5342 36135 4062 46704 Net income 20933 31365 33884 40437 31775 43529 49797 61681 Depliciation 2272 1840 2433 5409 6567 8523 9765 12229 Acounts receivable trade -1134 1054-1249 -3924-1453 -3562-1802 -158 Inventries 10128-7936 -4791-9268 -12311 1395-20802 501 Defferd tax assets -4072 610 861 1966-824 -793-19642 -7528 Dffered tax liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others(current assets) -187 4070-3821 -11858-10923 -39601-15601 -21679 Accounts payable trade -4910 1470-10988 9076-2226 16467-105 -2832 Income tax repayable 7750 7090-2627 18127-15947 10177 2452 4490 Investment cash flow -7265-13266 -34485-41941 -19031-7755 -33855-8779 Total current assets 1190-1099 -2857-11216 -7447-2978 -5629-4198 Goodwill 0 0-10787 -22209 460 4414-11277 10601 Others(intangible fixed assets) -2568-1501 -1514-1859 -2240-2250 -3198-3129 Total investments and other assets -3615-8826 -16894-1248 -3237 1582-3986 176 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Depliciation -2272-1840 -2433-5409 -6567-8523 -9765-12229 Free cash flow 23515 26297-20783 8024-24373 28380-29793 37925 Financial cash flow -14839-18883 11680 39168-33486 -25224 6421-19337 Short-term loans payable -1809 0 0 668-156 15 11248-4361 Current portion of lomg-term debt 0 0 0 2521 1963-1283 -103 6846 Others(current liabolities) -5087-8827 9565 7887-5568 2657 43519 22873 Bonds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Convertible bonds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term loans payable -4000 52 4893 14639-152 -3144 1692-12115 Reserve for retirement benefits 0 0 200 237-44 -140 54-307 Reserve for retirement benefits for officers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others(fixed liabolities) 117 328 4844 670-558 -531 2409 2834 Common stock 0 6999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital surplus 0-7001 1 420 0 0 1 0 Legal reserve of retained earnings 1381 2907-351 -361-711 510 2179 3026 Treasury stocks -6-7 -6 501-7 -10-698 -6 Others(owner's equity) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accumulated other comprehensive profit 159-1638 610 18114-5899 -8964-37318 -15491 Minority stockholder's equity 0 0 5146 7106-9113 -1093-272 774 Divident paid -5594-11696 -13222-13234 -13241-13241 -16290-23410 Decrease and increase in cash and time deposit 8676 7414-9103 47192-57859 3156-23372 18588 Cash and time deposit at beginning of year 67771 76447 83862 74759 121950 64091 67248 43876 Cash and time deposit at end of year 76447 83862 74759 121950 64091 67248 43876 62466
Future Balance Sheet Condenced Consolidated Balance Sheet(milions of yen) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Assets Cush and time deposit 62466 163656 199457 213508 228598 244726 269655 297382 327907 361952 399517 Funds surplus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Acounts receivable trade 15371 16595 20225 21650 23180 24815 27343 30154 33250 36702 40511 Inventries 74079 80524 98140 105054 112478 120414 132680 146323 161342 178093 196577 Defferd tax assets 29715 others 163994 157225 191619 205118 219615 235109 259058 285696 315021 347728 383817 Total current assets 345625 417999 509440 545330 583871 625064 688736 759555 837520 924475 1020421 Total tangible assets 50144 50357 61373 65697 70340 75303 82974 91505 100898 111374 122933 Goodwill 28798 others 19042 17435 21248 22745 24353 26071 28727 31681 34933 38559 42561 Total intangible fixed assets 47840 17435 21248 22745 24353 26071 28727 31681 34933 38559 42561 Total investments and other assets 63678 85126 103748 111057 118906 127295 140262 154684 170562 188270 207810 (Investment in securities) 844 1221 1488 1592 1705 1825 2011 2218 2446 2700 2980 (Long-term loans reciable) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total fixed assets 161662 152918 186370 199500 213599 228669 251962 277870 306392 338203 373303 Total assets 507287 570917 695810 744830 797470 853732 940698 1037425 1143912 1262679 1393725 Liabilities Accounts payable trade 54098 57038 69516 74414 79673 85294 93982 103646 114285 126150 139243 Short-term loans payable 7414 7414 7414 7414 7414 7414 7414 7414 7414 7414 7414 New borrowing 82912 146612 141100 136194 131679 148673 168076 189270 213652 240439 Current portion of lomg-term debt 9944 9944 9944 9944 9944 9944 9944 9944 9944 9944 9944 Income tax repayable 31512 others 99650 55291 55291 55291 55291 55291 55291 55291 55291 55291 55291 Total current liabilities 202618 212599 288777 288163 288516 289621 315304 344370 376203 412451 452331 Long-term loans payable 5865 5865 5865 5865 5865 5865 5865 5865 5865 5865 5865 Reserve for retirement benefits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 others 10816 10816 10816 10816 10816 10816 10816 10816 10816 10816 10816 Total fixed liabikities 16681 16681 16681 16681 16681 16681 16681 16681 16681 16681 16681 Total liabilities 219299 229280 305458 304844 305197 306302 331985 361051 392884 429132 469012
Income Future Statement Income Statement Condenced Consolidated Balance Sheet(milions of yen) Net assets 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Common stock 10273 10273 10273 10273 10273 10273 10273 10273 10273 10273 10273 Capital surplus 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 Legal reserve of retained earnings 336739 373362 421122 469750 520955 574947 634936 701164 774235 855000 944227 Treasury stocks -16260 Owner's equity 335752 388635 436395 485023 536228 590220 650209 716437 789508 870273 959500 Accumulated other comprehensive profit -50313-50313 -50313-50313 -50313-50313 -50313-50313 -50313-50313 -50313 Minority stockholder's equity 2548 3314 4269 5275 6358 7522 8816 10248 11832 13585 15525 Total net assets 287987 341636 390351 439985 492273 547429 608712 676372 751026 833545 924712 Total liabilities and net assets 507287 570917 695810 744830 797470 853732 940698 1037425 1143912 1262679 1393725
Income Future Statement Income Statement Consolidated profit and loss statement(milions of yen) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Net sales 814811 818279 997283 1067542 1142990 1223629 1348274 1486910 1639534 1809759 1997584 Cost of sales 393930 415342 506201 541863 580159 621090 684357 754726 832195 918598 1013934 Gross profit 420881 402937 491082 525679 562831 602539 663917 732184 807339 891161 983650 Depliciation 12229 12495 12548 15294 16371 17528 18765 20676 22802 25143 27753 Others 276274 277450 338144 361966 387548 414890 457153 504159 555909 613626 677311 Selling, general and administrative expenses 288503 289945 350692 377260 403919 432418 475917 524835 578711 638769 705064 Operaring incom 132378 112992 140390 148419 158912 170121 188000 207348 228628 252392 278586 Interest incom 344 1795 2187 2341 2507 2684 2957 3261 3596 3969 4381 others 657 1644 1644 1644 1644 1644 1644 1644 1644 1644 1644 Non-operating income 1001 3438 3831 3985 4150 4327 4601 4905 5239 5613 6025 Interest payed 500 353 1615 2585 2501 2426 2357 2616 2911 3234 3605 others 9124 4731 4731 4731 4731 4731 4731 4731 4731 4731 4731 Non-operating expenses 9624 5084 6346 7315 7231 7157 7088 7347 7642 7965 8336 Ordinary income 123755 111346 137875 145089 155831 167292 185512 204906 226226 250041 276275 Extraordinary profit 917 1122 1122 1122 1122 1122 1122 1122 1122 1122 1122 Extraordinary loss 7804 4860 4860 4860 4860 4860 4860 4860 4860 4860 4860 Net income before income tax 116867 107608 134137 141351 152093 163554 181775 201169 222488 246303 272537 Total income, inhabitant and business tax 54215 49944 62256 65605 70590 75910 84366 93368 103262 114316 126491 Net income before minority stockholder's profit 62652 57665 71881 75746 81503 87644 97408 107801 119226 131987 146046 Minority stockholder's profit 971 766 955 1006 1083 1164 1294 1432 1584 1753 1940 Net income 61681 56899 70926 74740 80420 86480 96114 106369 117642 130234 144106
Future Cash Flow Statement Cash flow statement(milions of yen) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Operating cash flow 46704 69638 40312 73093 78599 84564 84824 93617 103643 114332 126570 Net income 61681 56899 70926 74740 80420 86480 96114 106369 117642 130234 144106 Depliciation 12229 12495 12548 15294 16371 17528 18765 20676 22802 25143 27753 Acounts receivable trade -158-1224 -3630-1425 -1530-1635 -2528-2812 -3095-3452 -3809 Inventries 501-6445 -17615-6914 -7425-7935 -12266-13643 -15019-16751 -18483 Defferd tax assets -7528 29715 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dffered tax liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others(current assets) -21679 6769-34394 -13500-14497 -15494-23950 -26637-29325 -32707-36089 Accounts payable trade -2832 2940 12478 4897 5259 5621 8688 9664 10639 11866 13092 Income tax repayable 4490-31512 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Investment cash flow -8779-3751 -46000-28423 -30471-32597 -42058-46584 -51324-56954 -62853 Total current assets -4198-213 -11016-4324 -4643-4963 -7671-8532 -9393-10476 -11559 Goodwill 10601 28798 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others(intangible fixed assets) -3129 1607-3814 -1497-1608 -1718-2656 -2954-3252 -3627-4002 Total investments and other assets 176-21448 -18622-7309 -7849-8389 -12967-14422 -15878-17709 -19539 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Depliciation -12229-12495 -12548-15294 -16371-17528 -18765-20676 -22802-25143 -27753 Free cash flow 37925 65886-5688 44669 48128 51967 42766 47033 52318 57378 63717 Financial cash flow -19337-47608 -22211-25106 -28132-31324 -34831-38709 -42988-47715 -52939 Short-term loans payable -4361 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Current portion of lomg-term debt 6846 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others(current liabolities) 22873-44359 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bonds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Convertible bonds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term loans payable -12115 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve for retirement benefits -307 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve for retirement benefits for officers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others(fixed liabolities) 2834 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Common stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital surplus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Legal reserve of retained earnings 3026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Treasury stocks -6 16260 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others(owner's equity) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accumulated other comprehensive profit -15491 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Minority stockholder's equity 774 766 955 1006 1083 1164 1294 1432 1584 1753 1940 Divident paid -23410-20275 -23166-26112 -29215-32488 -36125-40141 -44571-49469 -54879 Decrease and increase in cash and time deposit 18588 18278-27900 19564 19996 20643 7935 8324 9331 9663 10778 Cash and time deposit at beginning of year 43876 62466 163656 199457 213508 228598 244726 269655 297382 327907 361952 Cash and time deposit at end of year 62464 163656 199457 213508 228598 244726 269655 297382 327907 361952 372730
Valuation ( milions of yen) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 UNIQLO Japan 577100 712696 730747 745188 756018 763238 766849 766849 766849 766849 UNIQLO International 104724 148132 200340 261348 331156 448581 583606 736231 906456 1094280 Others 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 136455 Total sales 818279 997283 1067542 1142990 1223629 1348274 1486910 1639534 1809759 1997584 Cost of sales 415342 506201 541863 580159 621090 684357 754726 832195 918598 1013934 Selling, general and administrative expenses 289945 350692 377260 403919 432418 475917 524835 578711 638769 705064 EBITA 112992 140390 148419 158912 170121 188000 207348 228628 252392 278586 Tax 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% NOPLAT 60549 75231 79534 85157 91164 100744 111113 122516 135251 149287 Depliciation 12495 12548 15294 16371 17528 18765 20676 22802 25143 27753 Gross cash flow 73045 87780 94827 101528 108692 119509 131789 145318 160393 177040 A change in working capital 4729 8768 3441 3696 3950 6105 6791 7476 8338 9200 Capital investment 30932 37698 40354 43206 46254 50966 56206 61976 68410 75510 Aggregate investment 35660 46466 43795 46901 50204 57071 62997 69451 76748 84710 Operating free cash flow 37384 41314 51032 54626 58488 62438 68792 75867 83645 92330 Discount rate 1.05 1.10 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.34 1.41 1.48 1.56 1.64 Present value 35584 37430 44008 44838 45695 46432 48693 51114 53640 56358 Total present value 463792 Risk free rate 1.17% Tarminal growth rate 2% Risk puremium 5.26% Discount rate 1.72 Levered beta 0.797 Continuous value 1754650 Cost of equity 5.36% Cost of debt 2.15% Enterprise value 2218442 Tax rate 40% Debt 23,223 Non-enterprize assets 63678 Total net assets 287,987 Corporate value 2282120 After-tax WACC 5.06% Debt 23223 Shares of minor shareholders 2548 Shareholder's equity 2256349 Shares issueed 106073656 Target stock price 21272 (Yen)
Scenario Analysis The number of store prediction 2009.8 2010.8 2011.8 2012.8 2013.8 2014.8 2015.8 2016.8 2017.8 2018.8 2019.8 2020.8 base UNIQLO international 76 118 164 214 264 314 364 464 564 664 764 864 China 33 54 77 127 177 227 277 327 377 427 477 527 Other Asia 43 64 87 87 87 87 87 137 187 237 287 337 Total net sales (milions of yen) 685043 814811 818279 997283 1067542 1142990 1223629 1348274 1486910 1639534 1809759 1997584 good UNIQLO international 92 136 183 285 387 489 591 793 995 1197 1399 1601 China 33 54 77 177 277 377 477 577 677 777 877 977 Other Asia 43 64 87 87 87 87 87 187 287 387 487 587 Total net sales (milions of yen) 685043 814811 818279 1032845 1147465 1276075 1418675 1645243 1903401 2193149 2518096 2878243 bad UNIQLO international 92 136 183 205 227 249 271 313 355 397 439 481 China 33 54 77 97 117 137 157 177 197 217 237 257 Other Asia 43 64 87 87 87 87 87 107 127 147 167 187 Total net sales (milions of yen) 685043 814811 818279 974876 1018517 1062069 1105531 1169022 1235944 1306295 1383687 1468118 scenario probability stock price base 0.8 21272 good 0.1 28426 bad 0.1 16966 target stock price 21556
Future Net Sales Per Square Meter(Hundred of Yen) 2005.8 2006.8 2007.8 2008.8 2009.8 2010.8 2011.8 2012.8 2013.8 2014.8 2015.8 2016.8 2017.8 2018.8 2019.8 2020.8 UNIQLO Japan 913 895 913 885 970 995 756 904 904 904 904 904 904 904 904 904 UNIQLO International 140 186 278 347 262 342 365 403 446 492 541 581 626 675 724 776 China 398 454 510 567 623 679 735 791 848 904 Other Asia 342 342 342 342 342 398 454 510 567 623 Others 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 Area per store(m²) Area per store Standard store 766m² Large-scale store 1566m²
リスク要因 人件費の高騰 コストを圧迫する恐れ キーパーソンリスク 柳井氏に依存した経営 後継者問題 ( 柳井氏は 65 歳で引退?)
SPA(Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel ) design production final sale material procurance material manufacturer storage Online Store designer merchand ising Productiv e sector Production factory Stock control Internati onal store Japanese store customer merchandise plan marketing
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 国内アパレル市場動向 (billion yen) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 衣服小売業販売額 衣服小売業販売額 市場規模 約 10 兆 景気後退の影響 低価格カジュアルチェーン店が消費者に支持される 商品単価が下落 少子高齢化の進展 経済規模の縮小 国内ユニクロ事業の大きな成長は期待できない
ファーストリテイリング海外動向 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 海外ユニクロ店舗総数 中国店舗数 40 20 0 特に中国に注力
中国での優位性 1 高品質 ( 千人 ) 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 中間所得者層人口 予測 856,589 555,112 990,415 低価格 400000 200000 220000 0 2001 2009 2015 2020
中国での優位性 2 High Basic Fashion Low 今後の中国の出店数が成長のカギ!!
売上高予測 国内 売上高 = 店舗数 1 店舗当たり売上高 = 店舗数 1 m2当たり売上 1 店舗当たり売場面積 国内店舗数 年間 10 店舗ずつ大型店が増加すると予測しかし 自社競合を避けるために大型店 1 店舗出店につき標準店 1 店舗をスクラップすると仮定 1 m2当たり売上 90 万円で一定と予測 1 店舗当たり売場面積 大型店一店舗当たり 1566 m2標準店一店舗当たり 766 m2と予測
売上高予測 海外 売上高 = 店舗数 1 店舗当たり売上高 = 店舗数 1 m2当たり売上 1 店舗当たり売場面積 店舗数 (2009 年以降 ) 平均出店増加数パターン 毎年 19 店舗ずつ増加すると仮定 日本平均出店増加数パターン 毎年 41 店舗ずつ増加 柳井さんの言う通り 毎年 100 店舗ずつ増加 一店舗当たり売上高
バリュエーション 売上高予測から営業 CF を算出 WACC=5.05% 永久成長率 = 理論株価 27938 円マルチプルのレンジ ~ 現在株価円より %