19317 http://www.ncrinv.co.jp/ http://www.cbrerm.com/
Contents 1. 2. (1)(2)(3) 4 4 3. LTV 4. 5. 4 Appendices 1
1. 2
42.5 42.5 1 REIT 2 3 1 2 3 100 CB Richard Ellis Group, Inc 100 3
3 16927 161215 8965 100 1,776 IT 1 4
3 1,170 50 1,780 2.9 *2 5% A3 R&I A+ 5
6 70% 5 3070% 23 5 1060% 23 1050% 30% 2040% 2050% 2050% 520% P 4LDK 3LDK+S P P 3LDK 2LDK+S 3DK 2DK+S P P P U/ U/ U 2LDK 1LDK+S U/ U/ U 2DK 1DK+S P P P P U U U U 1LDK LDK+S U U U U S 1DK 1+ S S S S 1R 1K 40 50 60 70 80 90 100100 30 P 4LDK 3LDK+S P P 3LDK 2LDK+S 3DK 2DK+S P P P U/ U/ U 2LDK 1LDK+S U/ U/ U 2DK 1DK+S P P P P U U U U 1LDK LDK+S U U U U S 1DK 1+ S S S S 1R 1K 40 50 60 70 80 90 100100 30 5 23 5 5 23 23 23 1 15 RC SRC 50
3 1 2 3 4 ( 178 ) ( 182 ) ( 188 ) ( 192 ) 260 181 184 181 3,224 3,346 4,201 5,442 1,151 1,435 1,635 2,384 1,146 1,433 1,630 2,382 104,678135,663164,094-40,50366,53966,756-74,556 122,612 122,612 164,068 1 543,268 542,687 544,451-1 15,381 11,692 13,302 14,520 () (21,592) (23,577) (26,387) (29,280) () - (+9.2%) (+11.9%) (+11.0%) 1 O 22,231 15,774 18,616 - () 6,000 5,442 (/) 16,000 1 ) 1 1 (/) 546,000 4,000 3,224 3,346 4,201 2,382 14,000 15,381 543,268 542,687 544,451 13,302 14,520 544,000 2,000 1,146 1,433 1,630 12,000 11,692 542,000 0 10,000 540,000 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 7
8 224 8 46 68 3.3 41.2% 34.1% 10.9% 5.1% 8.7% 1 2 3 5 23 5 5 23 23 23 4 3 5 2 100 5 23 5 23 53.9% 21.7% 10.7% 13.7% 26.6% 33.6% 33.7% 5.5% 0.5% 5,779 1,670 94 192
( ) 2,500 3 100 2,000 2,000 1,500 77 86 1,224 (4,526) 93 93 1,504 (5,409) 90 90 1,428 (5,314) 94 94 94 1,670 (5,779) 1,776 (6,323) 1,000 50 968 (3,766) 610 ( )(2,067) 500 0 1612 178 182 1889 ( ) (1 ) (2 ) (3 ) 11 12 19 2 19 1 (4 ) 6% 5.10% 5.13% 5.08% 5.08% 5.08% 5.08% 5.08% 5.02% 5.02% 5.02% 5.05% 5% 10 4% 9
2. 10
(1) C-36 5 NCR : 10,995 : 18111 : 2-17-12 ( 1) : SRC, 12 : 10,408.26m 2 : 169 : 178 : 14,400/( ) : 11,000 (CR4.7%) * 2LDK 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 1K 1K+S 1LDK 1LDK 1LDK+S 2LDK 2LDK+S 3LDK 33.2044.58m 2 53.81m 2 44.5269.30m 2 64.2879.48m 2 70.26m 2 80.49m 2 80.09100.34m 2 100.52m 2 114.12m 2 100% 95.0% 20 2 96 31 1 2 10 6 1 40% 182 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 19 1 1 24 ( ) BS/CS CATV 2 TV (96) 11
(2) M-23 : 9,350 : 18630 : 4-10-18 ( 5) : RC, 25/B2 : 12,732.35m 2 : 208 NCR : 1711 : 11,000/( 191 ) : 9,350 (CR 5.0%) * 19 1LDK 2LDK 2LDK 3LDK 3LDK+S 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 18 6 38.4355.11m 2 50.0459.96m 2 60.1878.41m 2 62.6972.29m 2 75.82m 2 7 8 9 10 11 12 35 58 44 70 1 89.7% 19 1 19 (LD) ( ) ( ) BS/CS CATV 2 TV (208) 12
(3) C-38 ( ) 5 : 16,200 : 181222 : 4-16-1,4-16-2 ( 2) : RC, 36/B2 ( ) RC, 28/B2 ( ) : 17,553.76m 2 : 264( 116, 148) : 1811 : 14,900/( 191 ) (NCR) : 16,300 (CR4.7%) * 1K 1LDK 2LDK 3LDK 2LDK 3LDK 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 49.49m 2 44.3760.56m 2 66.5374.98m 2 76.9384.43m 2 92.14m 2 94.7498.11m 2 59.8% 2 29 120 26 65 (249) 47 12 18 1812 191 ( ) 24 ( ) 2 ( ) ( ) 13
% 100 2 179 182 3 183 188 4 95 90 85 80 4/27 NCR NCR 23 6/30 NCR SST 23( ) 23 12/1 NCR 12/13 NCR 5 12/1 NCR 12/22 75 H179 10 11 12 H181 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 191 1 H17 9 10 11 12 H18 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 8 9 10 11 12 H19 1 91.2% 92.4% 93.9% 95.0% 93.5% 94.6% 94.4% 90.6% 91.5% 89.4% 91.1% 92.3% 93.7% 94.0% 94.6% 90.0% 92.5% 2 86 94.6% 95.3% 94.8% 95.0% 95.3% 95.7% 95.8% 96.1% 96.0% 95.9% 95.6% 95.5% 5 23 5 5 23 23 23 14
2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 179 182 183 188 2 3 18.0% (98) 545 5 26.5% 54.5% 19.0% 30.8% 57.9% 11.4% 23( 5) 20.8% 69.8% 9.4% 23.2% 60.6% 16.1% ( 23) 23.6% 51.6% 24.8% 23.9% 63.7% 12.4% 24.4% (133) 57.6% (314) 545 312 233 11.9% (92) 29.8% (230) 773 58.3% (451) 773 438 335 24.1% 72.4% 3.4% 54.1% 41.2% 4.7% 109 106 103 100 97 0 179 10 11 12 182 345678 8 (1 ) 1 (2 ) (3 ) 100.0 3 102.8 17 18 2 8 9 10 11 12 1(2 ) (1 ) 101.4 8 4 5 6 7 (3 ) 104.1 101.4 104.0 101.7 103.4 101.6 103.4 103.2 103.4 103.6 1178 1 100 2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 15
1500 1% 12% 23% 34% 45% 56% 67% 79% 912% 12% 16
17 New City 24 New City 24 24 24 187 ***** 175 12 ( )
18 50 50 NEW CITY PROPERTY SERVICES
19 4 4 5 1 1 5
20 4 1 1 1 MRI MRI 1 MRI Management Reports International
3. 21
A3 / R&I A+ 1712 185 22
LTV ( ) () 65% 200,000 200,000 60% 55% 61.2 PO 54.9 59.2 55.6 56.7PO 160,000 PO 150,000 50% 45% 46.6 51.3 50.7 48.5 42.0 43.4 51.3 120,000 80,000 PO 100,000 40% 39.8 39.6 40,000 35% H17 1 3 5 7 9 11 H18 1 3 5 7 9 11 0 1 2 3 4 ( 178) ( 182) ( 188) ( 192) 50,000 LTV 60 LTV 45 55 23
24 ( 178) ( 182) ( 188) ( 192) 25,300 43,700 16,000 36,700 65,000 50,900 50,900 25,500 52.3% 36.2% 25.6% 16.4% 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 1 2 3 4 (%) ( ) 62,200 66,900 94,600 90,300 211218 0.98545 181226 19326 57 201218 0.89545 181226 19326 40 20921 0.95636% 181226 19326 3 211 3 191130 1.00545 181226 19326 64 191213 1.00545 181226 19326 21 763 903 221217 1.03545% 181226 19326 4 80 4 191217 0.98136 181226 19326 2 122 2 191221 1.01022 181222 19326 168 1 1 23224 A3 1.61% 18224 140 UJ 20 18428 364 192 1 2 122 102 161217 191217 ( )0.860% 3 211 150 18925 20921 ( )1.269% 480 181218 221217 ( )1.800%
4. 25
(3 ) ( 5) 25,000 25,000 106 20,000 20,000 104 15,000 15,000 102 10,000 10,000 100 5,000 5,000 98 0 0-5,000-5,000 96-10,000-10,000 94-15,000-15,000 92-20,000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-20,000 90 1993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005 26
140 130 120 Land price index Existing-condominium price index 110 100 90 80 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NCR NCR : 27
(y-on-y, %) 25 20 Residential (Greater Tokyo) 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 23 28
( ) 130,000 () 51,000 128,000 50,000 126,000 49,000 124,000 48,000 122,000 47,000 120,000 46,000 118,000 45,000 116,000 44,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 ( ) 34,800 34,600 34,400 34,200 34,000 33,800 33,600 33,400 33,200 33,000 32,800 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ( ) 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 12,000 141 ( ) 1510 29
30 15 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 15 1519 2024 2529 3034 3539 4044 4549 5054 5559 6064 6569 7074 7579 8084 85 1990 1995 2000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 15 15 15 1
135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 15 (CPI) 15 11987 100 2 31
(2003) 13,120,200 : 2 5,355,200 (41) 7,480,300 5 7,480,300 (57) (27) 5,055,500 (68) 5,055,500 (27%) 3,695,800 (73) (18) (9) 2003 32
5. 33
1 2 ( 178 182 18 260 181 184 104,678 135,663 164,094 40,503 66,539 66,756 39,357 65,106 65,106 74,556 122,612 122,612 1 543,268 542,687 544,451 1 15,381 11,692 13,302 () 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% () 4.1% 5.4% 4.9% 38.7% 49.0% 40.7% 77 86 93 153,429.01 183,722.52 227,310.82 91.7% 94.6% 92.3% NOI (4) 2,591 2,637 3,293 O (5) 1,657 1,934 2,282 1 O 22,231 15,774 18,616 62,200 66,900 94,600 LTV ( /) 59.4% 49.3% 57.6% LTV( /( + )) 61.2% 50.7% 59.2% 9.3 12.7 10.5 1 / + /2 2 / + /2 3 / 4NOI - )+ 5O + 6 / 7 34
4 3 1 2 3 4 260 181 184 181 3,224 3,346 4,201 5,442 1,151 1,435 1,635 2,384 1,146 1,433 1,630 2,382 1 15,381 11,692 13,302 14,520 ( ) (21,592) (23,577) (26,387) (29,280) ( ) - (+9.2%) (+11.9%) (+11.0%) 4 923 9318121 2 NCR NCR 181031 3 NCR NCRNCR 92 164,068 3 122,612181027 40,000 1,456 164,068 704 5 46 = + )100 94 4 92 193 NCR 196 NCR 94 4,593 1,827 1 11,130 35
Appendices 36
6,000 (%) 700,000 7.0 6.0 650,000 (bps) 600 500 4,000 5.0 400 600,000 4.0 300 2,000 550,000 3.0 200 500,000 2.0 100 0 18 23 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 121912 2 3 450,000 1.0 1823 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 191 2 3 0 607,000 ( 1932) 3 503,000 ( 18831) 683,000 ( 17629) 492,000 ( 1875) 37
122,612 2 7,330 16,827 23,884 13.7% 19.5% 9,041 7.4% 1,835 1.5% 71,025 57.9% 6,960 95.0% 13 176 0.2% 136 2.4% 1.9% 45 0.6% 122,612 17,693 14.4% 37,708 30.8% 56,108 45.8% 3 7,177 12 151 115 0.2% 2.1% 1.6% 67 0.9% 8,221 6.7% 2,882 2.4% 6,832 95.2% 38
39 NEW CITY PROPERTY SERVICES 50 UJ
40 6 3 1921 37 8 4 5 18 IR 1 2 1 * 1921
41 15 2 10 3 3 3
42