2 TFR ASEAN NIES 1 TFR 2004 TFR 1.16 1.18 1.24 0.93 1.29 TFR 2.1 1974 2.05 NIIES TFR 4.53 4.00 3.07 1970 TFR 2000 1970 TFR 5.8 90 1.8 1) 2 1950 2050 2004 2025 2050 ASEAN 95

1 1950 3.65 5.81 1955 2.37 6.53 6.26 1960 2.00 5.75 5.77 4.02 1965 2.14 4.82 4.66 6.08 1970 2.13 4.53 4.00 3.07 5.81 1975 1.91 3.47 2.83 2.07 2.67 3.57 1980 1.75 2.83 2.52 1.82 2.05 2.24 1985 1.76 1.67 1.89 1.61 1.49 2.20 1990 1.54 1.59 1.81 1.83 1.27 2.31 1991 1.53 1.74 1.72 1.73 1.28 1.98 1992 1.50 1.78 1.73 1.72 1.35 1.81 1993 1.46 1.67 1.76 1.74 1.34 1.83 1994 1.50 1.67 1.76 1.71 1.36 1.81 1995 1.42 1.65 1.78 1.67 1.30 1.78 1996 1.43 1.58 1.76 1.66 1.17 1.81 1997 1.39 1.54 1.77 1.61 1.10 1.82 1998 1.38 1.47 1.47 1.47 0.99 1.82 1999 1.34 1.42 1.56 1.47 0.97 2000 1.36 1.47 1.68 1.60 1.02 1.75 2001 1.33 1.30 1.40 1.41 0.93 2002 1.32 1.17 1.34 1.37 0.96 2003 1.29 1.19 1.24 1.25 0.94 2004 1.29 1.16 1.18 1.24 0.93 2000 1.75 1.35 2.06 2005: 159 164 2005 2004 2000a; 2000b HP 2 1,000 1950 2005 2015 2025 2050 83,625 128,085 127,993 124,819 112,198 554,760 1,315,844 1,392,980 1,441,426 1,392,307 18,859 47,817 49,092 49,457 44,629 1,974 7,041 7,764 8,362 9,235 1,022 4,326 4,815 5,144 5,213 19,626 64,233 69,064 72,635 74,594 6,110 25,347 29,558 33,223 38,924 79,538 222,781 246,813 263,746 284,640 19,996 83,054 96,840 109,084 127,068 27,367 84,238 95,029 104,343 116,654 357,561 1,103,371 1,260,366 1,395,496 1,592,704 UN 2004 96 Vol. 52, No. 2, April 2006

65 7% aging society 14% aged society 3 7% 14% 1970 94 24 23 NIES 16 17 ASEAN 14 20 65 2005 9.4% 2050 34.5% 35.9% 2050 23.6% 1 TFR 2.1 4 2050 80 1 80 1.3% 8,700 2050 4.3% 3 9,400 4,200 2 7,900 80 71% 1 50 7.2%5,290 3.3% 1 2 52050 53.9 52.3 50 44.8 ASEAN 20 30 40 32004 7% 14% 1970 1994 24 2001 2024 23 1999 2016 17 1983 2014 31 2000 2016 16 2005 2025 20 2018 2038 20 2018 2037 19 2024 2044 20 2020 2034 14 2 97

1 2003: 12 4 % 2005 2050 0 14 15 59 60 80 0 14 15 59 60 80 14.0 59.7 26.3 13.4 44.9 41.7 15.3 21.4 67.7 10.9 1.1 15.7 53.3 31.0 7.2 18.6 67.7 13.7 1.4 12.0 46.8 41.2 13.0 14.4 70.2 15.4 2.8 12.4 48.8 38.7 13.2 19.5 68.2 12.2 1.5 12.6 49.3 38.0 14.0 23.8 65.7 10.5 0.8 16.8 55.5 27.8 5.8 32.4 60.6 7.0 0.6 18.2 60.2 21.6 3.9 28.3 63.3 8.4 0.6 17.6 58.7 23.7 3.3 35.1 58.8 6.1 0.5 19.0 61.0 20.0 2.8 29.5 63.0 7.5 1.0 17.4 57.1 25.5 4.4 32.1 60.0 7.9 0.8 18.3 61.0 20.7 3.3 2 2004 6 1995 2000 64.1 50 2045 50 74.7 10.6 81.9 78.3 85.3 2045 50 88.3 84.1 92.5 98 Vol. 52, No. 2, April 2006

5 1950 2005 2050 22.3 42.9 52.3 23.9 32.6 44.8 19.1 35.1 53.9 23.7 38.9 51.0 20.0 37.5 52.1 18.6 30.5 42.5 19.8 24.7 39.3 20.0 26.5 40.5 18.2 22.2 37.9 24.6 24.9 41.3 20.4 24.3 38.7 2 86.9 78.7 1950 40 70 80 2) 2010 25 2 2005: 283 6 1995 2000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2045 2050 64.1 64.7 67.1 69.5 74.7 80.5 81.9 83.7 85.3 88.3 69.7 71.5 73.3 74.4 78.7 74.6 76.8 79.4 81.4 84.4 80.0 81.5 82.8 84.0 86.9 77.2 78.6 80.2 81.6 84.5 69.0 69.7 73.1 75.5 79.1 71.9 73.0 75.0 76.7 79.9 64.9 66.5 70.0 72.0 76.9 68.6 70.2 72.8 74.9 78.6 68.8 70.4 73.2 75.3 78.9 61.5 63.1 66.7 70.0 75.9 2 99

2 1 1 2000 119.92 111 2002 1 106.5 2 107.3 3 141.1 109 107 3) 1980 100 Vol. 52, No. 2, April 2006

7 1995 2000 TFR. 1995 2000 1995 2000 1.71 1.88 37.6 42.6 1.25 1.38 16.1 23.4 1.53 1.72 15.5 24.9 1.18 1.24 11.1 17.7 1.20 1.24 8.1 9.7 1.41 1.55 18.7 22.2 1995 1.24% 14,718 2000 1.63% 19,436 2003 1.93% 21,634 1925 7.26% 151,448 Council of Europe 2003 1976 1966 41 TFR 1.58 7 1995 2000 1990 1. 2004 TFR 1.29 1.2905 1.2888 3 TFR 2.1 1974 1966 1.57 1990 6 2003 112 3,610 2004 111 835 1 2,775 1947 49 1 270 1971 74 2 200 1975 92 2001 4 1 28.9 1965 3.2 1994 12 5 1999 12 2003 7 101

8 10 1998 2002 10 10 1 3.14 1,331 1 0.75 190,467 2 2.81 7,175 2 0.76 244,794 3 2.51 2,143 3 0.77 302,658 4 2.47 7,765 4 0.77 514,607 5 2.45 3,157 5 0.79 44,096 6 2.42 7,696 6 0.82 805,031 7 2.41 13,099 7 0.82 149,828 8 2.39 8,399 8 0.82 270,221 9 2.39 4,479 9 0.83 240,329 10 2.39 4,748 10 0.84 171,799 10 14 2004 TFR 1.72 1.52 1.51 1.01 1.14 1.16 2004 7 0.75 TFR TFR 1998 2002 10 8 3.14 1983 87 2.53 1988 92 2.50 1993 97 2.35 1998 2002 3.14 2005 2 1995 2000 2,816 1 2 5 3 10 69 795 2. 2030 1979 2 1983: 15 4 9 3 102 Vol. 52, No. 2, April 2006

9 2000 2050 TFR 2.0 2000 12.67 12.67 12.67 12.67 2005 13.18 13.18 13.18 13.18 2010 13.62 13.62 13.52 13.62 2015 14.05 14.03 13.83 14.13 2020 14.44 14.36 14.06 14.56 2025 14.75 14.57 14.17 14.84 2030 14.97 14.65 14.17 15.00 2035 15.09 14.65 14.05 15.07 2040 15.15 14.57 13.83 15.07 2045 15.16 14.42 13.53 15.01 2050 15.11 14.19 13.15 14.85 2050 65 21.31% 22.69% 24.49% 21.68% 2040 15.15 2030 14.65 2028 29 14.18 2035 40 15.07 2004 2030 14 6,500 2050 14 1,900 2040 2028 29 10 15.6% 43.6% 60 64 22.1% 60 19.6% 11 8 12 3 9 2005: 407 103

10 2000 % 10,447 66,875 15.6 23,940 43.6 62,653 16.7 21,084 49.6 15 59 2001 2000 2003 112000 % 60 64 26.4 17.6 22.1 65 69 14.8 30.8 21.7 70 74 28.3 11.0 19.4 75 79 24.3 8.0 15.3 80 84 21.1 5.7 11.9 85 18.9 4.0 9.0 26.7 17.1 19.6 2004 2003 122000 5 % 22.3 18.3 9.7 7.7 10.1 4.9 2.2 28.4 26.5 18.9 11.5 16.9 2.2 19.3 19.3 23.8 3.8 19.1 2.7 4.4 9.1 9.5 6.8 4.5 1.8 17.5 23.2 37.4 76.9 41.6 80.5 82.2 3.4 3.2 3.4 7.9 8.0 11.1 100.0 767 100.0 856 100.0 206 100.0 26 100.0 89 100.0 226 100.0 45 1998 87.4% 2001: 94 104 Vol. 52, No. 2, April 2006

2002 1998 44.1% 87.3% 76.2% 2004 15 2005 4 60 1 2 600 1 13 2 1,200 4) 3. 1970 TFR 4.53 2.13 1985 1.67 1.76 90 2004 1.16 13 2001 60 2002 50 2016 5,000 1960 80 1997 13 1989 646,197 15.2 1.58 111.8 1990 658,552 15.4 1.59 116.6 1991 718,279 16.6 1.74 112.5 1992 739,291 16.9 1.78 113.8 1993 723,934 16.4 1.67 115.5 1994 728,515 16.3 1.67 115.4 1995 721,074 16.0 1.65 113.3 1996 695,825 15.3 1.58 111.7 1997 678,402 14.8 1.54 108.4 1998 642,972 13.8 1.47 110.2 1999 616,322 13.2 1.42 109.6 2000 636,780 13.4 1.47 110.2 2001 557,228 11.6 1.30 109.0 2002 494,625 10.3 1.17 110.0 2003 493,471 10.2 1.19 108.8 2004 476,052 9.8 1.16 108.2 HP 105

TFR 6 1970 0.4 0.931980 0.6 1.22 1990 1.1 1.282002 3.0 2.3 2 1961 1966 70 3 1971 75 2 1981 85 1% 1986 90 5% 12% 2005 9 5 19 2 2,000 4. 17 1 1949 100 150 1995 9 35.8 1.7% 84% 16% 5) 1949 1953 1959 1964 67 2 2 1 1968 69 106 Vol. 52, No. 2, April 2006

41949 2003 2005 2003 10.1 4 1949 40 2003 23 1976 21.2 2003 4.3 TFR 1956 6.00 80 1.70 1.80 2000 1.68 03 1.24 90 TFR2.1 14 1970 2004 34 20 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 141970 2004 1970 2004 2000 1970 2004 2000 20 24 87.7 96.6 92.9 50.3 89.5 87.9 25 29 35.0 76.8 69.3 8.7 59.1 54.0 30 34 10.9 41.2 42.9 2.2 26.9 26.6 35 39 8.6 21.0 25.7 1.2 14.8 13.8 107

2003 3 1 6) 5. 416 2002 76.8% 13.9% 7.9% 2000 4 3 TFR 1950 6.00 60 5.00 70 2.1 80 2003 1.25 1966 84 1984 87 1987 3 1980 1984 1987 3 3 2000 8 2001 4 2 3 80 1 1990 27.5 2000 28.4 2 29.8 31.3 15 TFR 2001 14% 2.45 77% 1.21 2 1.41 TFR 16 15 TFR. 1980 1990 2000 2001 1960 1971 80 1991 2000 1.73 1.65 1.43 1.21 20.7 24.3 26.9 2.19 2.69 2.54 2.45 17.7 21.7 24.8 2.03 1.89 1.58 1.50 18.0 22.1 25.3 76.8% 13.9% 7.9% 2000 Leow 2000 108 Vol. 52, No. 2, April 2006

161990 2000 % % 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 Below Secondary 3.4 3.3 8.7 12.6 4.1 5.4 Secondary 1.6 1.9 15.9 17.2 6.4 6.6 Post-Secondary 1.5 1.5 15.2 18.4 6.1 8.0 University 1.4 1.3 15.9 18.6 7.8 9.4 2.8 2.5 10.5 15.1 4.7 6.4 15 7) 6. 95% 1997 1 5 2003 2 26 51949 2003 4 109

17 % 2001 2000 2000 2000 20 24 66.7 66.7 42.4 40.3 25 29 72.9 72.8 47.5 44.6 30 34 67.3 67.2 42.5 43.7 35 39 60.7 56.4 46.0 53.6 65 2.6 5.4 23.4 24.8 17 25 29 72.9% 30 34 67.3% 35 39 60.7% 40 50% 65 NIES NIES TFR 0.94 1.16 1.18 1.24 1.29 2004 ASEAN 3 7% 14% 20 19 24 2030 2050 NIES ASEAN ASEAN 1990 110 Vol. 52, No. 2, April 2006

NIES ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN 1997 2002 30 2002 60 1) TFR 2000 1.75 1.35 2.06 2) 1998 3) 100 4) 1 2,230 2004 9 80% 11% 9% 5) 1996: 11 6) 2 45 111

15 17 30 7) 2004 8 2004 1 2004 2003 2002 2004 2003 10 14 2003 No. 23 2003 2005 1980 1983 No. 190 1983 5 1996 2005 2005 DTP 2000a 2000b 2004 2006 8 20032003 11 2001 Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Development 2003. Leow Bee Geok, Superintendent of Census Census of Population 2000 Advance Data Release, Singapore Department. UN, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. E-mail: kwakaba@cc.tuat.ac.jp 112 Vol. 52, No. 2, April 2006