FTA
EU NAFTA FTA FTA FTA FTA GDP ASEAN FTA GDP EU CAP 2
FTA 1 FTA 2 WTO FTA FTA FTA FTA 1 2 FTA FTA FTA FTA 1 2 1 2 3
FTA FTA FTA FTA FTA EU NAFTA FTA FTA FTA 4
1 FTA 1 FTA FTA FTA EPA FTA 2 WTO FTA WTO WTO WTO FTA WTO FTA 3 FTA WTO EU NAFTA AFTAASEAN SAPTA MERCOSUR FTAANAFTAMERCOSUR ACPEU EU ASEANFTA etc 5
4 FTA AFTA ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN etc. EU NAFTA FTA -ASEAN FTA WTO FTA ASEAN FTA ASEAN ASEAN FTA FTA NAFTA EU FTA ASEAN ASEAN FTA FTA ASEAN EU 6
NAFTA MERCOSUR FTAA 7
2 FTA 1 GDP EUNAFTA 2002 14.6 23.6 5698 17.7 1733 13.2 3.8 6.1 8637 26.8 4658 36.8 4.2 6.8 11809 36.7 2672 21.1 Global Insight DRI-WERA(), World Overview EUNAFTA..... 8
EUNAFTA 1995 1999 2000 2001 281 377 282 604 375 559 480 536 n.a n.a 3381 2111 3985 4000 2286 1381 1103 767 2045 3264 2256 3880 1671 1830 IMF(), Balance of Payment Statistics... 2 FTA FTA FTA FTA FTA GDP 1.294.73 0.031.05 0.030.16 FTA GDP.. 9
FTA FTA FTA FTA FTA FTA 3 FTA ASEAN ASEAN GDP.. FTA FTA FTA FTA 10
FTA 4 FTA FTA FTA FTA AV. FTA FTA.. FTA FTA FTA IT 5 FTA FTA FTA FTA FTA 11
EU NAFTA GDP GDP GDP FTA FTA 6 FTA Common Agricultural Policy CAP 12
1 13
14
3 FTA GDP FTA Eviews. 1 X = " +! M + M + M + X (a) M a ( ) ba ca da arow X : : a X M arow ba : a b ba & IPb # M = + + $! ba ) ( Yb ' (b) % GDPDEFb " IP : GDPDEF :GDP 15
& IPjgoods # M $! jgoods = + ( Yb + ' % GDPDEFj " & M jgoods # & IPjgoods # log $! = ' log$! % Y j " % GDPDEFj " M jgoods ) (c) (! (d) IPjgoods M = " +! M + M + M + M (e) a ( ) C = $ + # Y + " C(!1) (f) I = % + $ R + # S + " I(!1) (g) Y = C + I + G + X! M (h) ab Y :GDP C : R : S : G : ac ad arow 2 (HP) OECD 123! 0'!"#$%& 4536 *+,-./! ()'( 2000' )!"#$%& WTO World Trade Report () GTAP 16
( IP ) f ( 100!()*+,-%&' ) () IP! IP f = 100!"#$%&' FTA IP f 17
4 1 550000 500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Y_JP Y_JP_0 1.4E+13 GDP 1.2E+13 1.0E+13 8.0E+12 6.0E+12 4.0E+12 2.0E+12 0.0E+00 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Y_CH Y_CH_0 GDP 18
8.E+14 6.E+14 4.E+14 2.E+14 0.E+00 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Y_KO Y_KO_0 12000 GDP 10000 8000 6000 4000 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Y_US Y_US_0 GDP GDP (Y)(Y_0) GDP 19
2 GDP () 2.7 3.2 11.3 12.4 7 11.6 WTO World Trade Report 49.18 27.72 37.16 2.01 2.51 0.24 13.64 12.46 4.66 3.8 0.22 0 7.6 20.06 7.83 6.53 11.21 2.26 4.7 8.82 0.99 6.21 0 6.21 10.65 0 10.65 11.9 0.27 11.9 12.86 1.9 12.86 GTAP() GDP GDP GDP ( c,d)gdp GDP GDP IP f GDP GDP GDP FTA 20
2005 511133.9596 511344.6768 0.041% 2006 516104.9715 516348.9993 0.047% 2007 521410.317 521689.2697 0.053% 2008 526765.8299 527081.5886 0.060% 2009 531880.906 532235.3884 0.067% 2010 536378.8566 536773.7843 0.074% 2011 539787.9837 540224.983 0.081% 2012 541515.0529 541995.0911 0.089% 2013 540790.162 541313.3712 0.097% GDP 2005 12385820923900.00 12306847070500.00-0.638% 2006 13231457031500.00 13142980530900.00-0.669% 2007 14093808015000.00 13993943263400.00-0.709% 2008 14992276467100.00 14878828970900.00-0.757% 2009 15920739957900.00 15791274227800.00-0.813% 2010 16864256614700.00 16716136167800.00-0.878% 2011 17835219268600.00 17665436713700.00-0.952% 2012 18819902060700.00 18625211681600.00-1.034% 2013 19823527434900.00 19600312589700.00-1.126% GDP 2005 877335794919000.00 887162614836000.00 1.120% 2006 961729670100000.00 973192234879000.00 1.192% 2007 1042001330560000.00 1055447135420000.00 1.290% 2008 1121516170950000.00 1137362704850000.00 1.413% 2009 1206912156810000.00 1225623647360000.00 1.550% 2010 1300925351040000.00 1322999642970000.00 1.697% 2011 1405823510220000.00 1431836679230000.00 1.850% 2012 1524639220310000.00 1555205147980000.00 2.005% 2013 1657637130500000.00 1693442376940000.00 2.160% GDP GDP 21
2005 513373.9998 513482.4634 0.021% 2006 519057.3521 519202.678 0.028% 2007 525366.9527 525552.2568 0.035% 2008 532131.3434 532360.5096 0.043% 2009 539216.2324 539493.6724 0.051% 2010 546457.7365 546788.2433 0.060% 2011 553666.6028 554055.7442 0.070% 2012 560619.5626 561073.195 0.081% 2013 567009.504 567534.0035 0.093% 2014 572473.7296 573075.6454 0.105% 2015 576468.3307 577151.0124 0.118% 2005 12600645346600.00 12551755734800.00-0.388% 2006 13506393117900.00 13443610199000.00-0.465% 2007 14436684091900.00 14358138062500.00-0.544% 2008 15412613930100.00 15316019778000.00-0.627% 2009 16429448654300.00 16312164171900.00-0.714% 2010 17473461133000.00 17332513555500.00-0.807% 2011 18559078625000.00 18390962691400.00-0.906% 2012 19674017725800.00 19474811180900.00-1.013% 2013 20825613206000.00 20590802768300.00-1.128% 2014 22014414244400.00 21738882907000.00-1.252% 2015 23120894584000.00 22800154277200.00-1.387% GDP 22
2005 827324146375000.00 842125436659000.00 1.789% 2006 901169548825000.00 919157313661000.00 1.996% 2007 969195621562000.00 990893452318000.00 2.239% 2008 1034405981310000.00 1060451000380000.00 2.518% 2009 1103174717780000.00 1134289914350000.00 2.821% 2010 1178023949170000.00 1215004836450000.00 3.139% 2011 1260783400000000.00 1304567108650000.00 3.473% 2012 1354219756060000.00 1405835620450000.00 3.811% 2013 1458146015710000.00 1518773888520000.00 4.158% 2014 1577717448600000.00 1648683802700000.00 4.498% 2015 1709590910380000.00 1791925873280000.00 4.816% GDP 23
5 GDP GDP GDP FTA GDP CAP FTA EPA 24
6 25
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929 FTA FTA http://www.doyukai.or.jp/policyproposals/articles/2004/041222a.html <http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/> <http://www.maff.go.jp/> 19802004 <http://www.bea.doc.gov/> Bank of Korea Economic Statistics Systems <http://ecos.bok.or.kr/eindex_en.html> OECD National Accounts of OECD Countries (CD-ROM) 29