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23 211 1 17 1 1 9 8 29 9 3 1 6 +11% +6%+9% +1%+7% +9%+22% +17% +6%+62%+68% 7-9 GDP 4 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2-2 3 1DI 116 12 6 12 6 12 6 12 6 12 6 12 6 12 6 12 6 12 6 12 92 8 1. DI 2. 12 UFJ 1

12 9 2% 1 2 211 3 12 1 7 211 3 3 1 1 12 B 12 7 29 21 19 2 1 2 6 3 9.1 1.1 3.9 212 212 3. 1 6.1 1 11.4 2.6 2.2 3. 3.2 4.2 1.6 6 2. 2.3 1.3 2 3B. 12113 111.69.1. 12. UFJ.1.2. 2 21121 2111 2 3 21622 19 4 2 9.1 3.9 4 23 UFJ 2

1 16.2 3 16.2 3 9.1 2. 3.9 B.7 2 222 3 9.2 7 2 16.2 116.2 2113 9.1 2. 3.9 211 21 222 B.7 UFJ 9.2 7 3 2131 4.% 22212 1 211 1% 2124 213 3 2121 11 222 1 UFJ 3 8 8 +.6% +2.8% 9 2.4%2.% 1 +3.8%1 8 1.2% 8 +.7%+3.9% 3 9 +.7%1 +13.6% 9 DI 4 23 3

112 11 18 16 14 12 1 98 96 94 92 9 3 2118 21181 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 1. 91 2. 87 97 UFJ 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-4DI 7 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2 6 7 8 9 1 11 UFJ EU 8 +.1% 4 +1.4% 3 2.3% EU.8% 8 +11.%3 9 211 +4.3% 6 4 4

9, 8, 8, 7, 7, 6, 3 1 1 - -1 4 21 3 211 6 2.2.2 4.3 4.3. 1.4 7. 12.1 13. 1.3 2.6 4.2..7.7 1. 2. 6 UFJ 6, -1, -2 1/1 4 7 1 11/1 4 7 UFJ 4 8 3 4.3%7.4% 6 24 16 2 +2 8 +.2.6.2 1. 7 1.3% 1.1% 6 6 9 1.6 7 6 1.4 4 3 1.2 1. 3.8 2 1 9 1 11 UFJ -3.6-6.4 7 8 9 1 11 UFJ

8.1%.1% 2 8 9 38.6 8 37. 1 1 9 9 8 8 21 8 9 1 11 UFJ 4 4 3 3 2 211 2 3 4 6 7 8 9.3 1.3 2.6 1.3 3.1 2.3 3.3 #N/A.1 8.3 4.8 1.3 1.2.6 2.6 #N/A. 7. 1.9 2...8 2.6 #N/A.6 1. 1.8 2.6.1.4 2.1 #N/A.4 3. 1.9 2.4.8 1. 2.9 #N/A 18.4 44.2 8.7 43.8 2.6 33.2 22.9 1.6.4 4. 11.2.4 3.4 7. 1.7. 34.9 3. 37.8 31.9 17. 26.6 49. #N/A 2.8 31. 26.7 16.9 1. 7.6 2. #N/A UFJ 8 8 +14.% 93.4 9 7 6 9 1 6

6 4 6 4 3 2 1 3 1 2 1 7 8 9 1 11 UFJ -1-2 -3-4 8 9 1 11 6 UFJ CPI 2 8 CPI+.2% 2 9 CPI +19.1%+13.% +3.%+3.%+1.9% 1.% 2. 1. 1.. 9 3 2 2 1 1 24 2 16 12. 1 8 -. 4-1. -1. -2. 1/1 1 4 7 1 11/11 4 7 UFJ - -4-1 -8-1 -12 1/1 1 4 7 1 11/1 1 4 7 UFJ 7

2 1 1 6-7 1 1% 11 1 1.6 1. 11 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1..9.8 9/1 1 4 7 1 1/1 1 4 7 1 11/1 1 4 7 1 BloombergUFJ 2 9 1 1 1 =11 12 EFSF 1 =76 7 9 1 =81.6 8

1 14 13 12 17 16 1 12 14 11 13 1 12 9 11 8 1 7 9 6 8 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 BloombergUFJ yasuhiro_ishimaru@mufg.jp shin_takayama@mufg.jp hayato_nakamura@mufg.jp mikiko_nishimura@mufg.jp yuka_maehara@mufg.jp http://www.bk.mufg.jp 9

211117 Economic Research Office 1 [()( ) [ ] 29 21 21 211 211 1-12 1-3 4-6 6 7 8 GDP 2.4 2.3 2.4 3.7 2.1 (2.2) ( 1) ( 1.1) *** *** *** *** *** 4.2 2..2 1.9.4 2. 2.2.4. #N/A (2.1) (.) ( 1.7) ( 1.3) (.2) (.8) (.) #N/A 8.8 8.9.1 2. 4. 6.2 3.8.4.6 #N/A (.9) ( 3) ( 6.8) (.) ( 1.7) ( 3.) (.4) #N/A 8.3 9.3.3 1.9.9.3 8.1.1.2 #N/A (6.4) ( 3) ( 8.4) ( 8.) ( 1.8) ( 3.) (.2) #N/A 6.1 3..6 1. 3.2.6 2.8.1 2.1 #N/A (3.8) (3.) (4.) (7.7) (4.) (4.1) (.8) #N/A 12.4 18.2 111. 16.9 119.1 12.7 111.9 116.4 114.8 #N/A 2=1 [114.7] [16.3] [16.] [17.] [16.9] [19.] [18.] [19.1].2.7.3 1.2 1.2.2..2.2.1 (.98) (1.8) (2.) (2.2) (2.) (2.8) (2.6) (2.) 1.6.8.1.3...3.1. #N/A (.8) (.8) (.3) (.1) (.2) (.1) (.2) #N/A 8. 88. 88.4 86.1 8.4 82.1 86.4 86.9 89. #N/A 2=1 [81.8] [89.] [89.8] [9.] [88.9] [88.] [88.] [88.1] 2.4 9.1 4.3.6 2. 3. 7.7 8.2 11. #N/A (.6) (8.9) (9.8) (1.) (17.9) (4.) (2.1) #N/A 27.9 18.3 1.7.3.2 1.4 9.3.2 13.7 #N/A (11.) (16.3) (17.2) (22.) (21.1) (3.2) (.) #N/A 14.7 2.7.1 1.4..4 1.7 1.4 6.1 #N/A (.3) (3.) (4.2) (1.) (1.4) (.8) (.1) #N/A 24.2 21.3 1.2 2.4 6.1 8.4 1.1.6 3. #N/A (23.9) (6.6) (9.) (16.9) (9.3) (7.) (8.1) #N/A 14.2.2 (2.) ( 4.9) (18.) (2.) (6.) (.7) (9.3) #N/A 1.3 2.6 (4.8) (1.) (2.1) (2.2) (13.1) (12.) (.7) #N/A 11.1 12.1 ( 3.6) ( 2.1) (1.1) (1.6) ( 8.) (9.1) (13.) #N/A 4.9 8.8 ( 14.8) ( 3.2) ( 9.3) ( 14.1) ( 3.4) ( 1.9) (3.) (3.3) 77.6 81.9 84.3 84.2 81. 81. 81.7 9. 93.4 #N/A ( 2.4) (.6) (6.9) (3.2) (4.1) (6.4) (.8) (21.2) (14.) #N/A ( 21.) (9.) (11.) (6.) (3.8) (.8) (4.6) (22.) (14.) #N/A.4.8 (.4) ( 3.) ( 1.7) ( 1.3) (1.2) (.6) ( 2.6) #N/A 1..9 1.3 2.8.4.3.8.7.1 #N/A 2 ( 1.) ( 3.) ( 2.1) ( 1.2) ( 3.) ( 2.1) ( 4.1) #N/A 74.7 73.4 74. 71.9 74.1 74.7 73.6 71.9 73.8 #N/A % [74.8] [74.1] [72.4] [72.9] [71.8] [7.4] [7.] [7.1] 8. 6.8.6 1.2 2.6.9 2.2.1 1. #N/A (.7) (1.7) ( 2.) ( 2.1) (.) ( 1.) ( 2.1) #N/A 3.3.6 (.2) (.1) (.4) (1.) (.7) (.2) (.6) #N/A 77,894 23,384 28,38 33,848 28,33 24,914 3,31 28,86 2,27 #N/A 19,743 1,683 1,188 1,833 1,821 2,627 18,928 24,836.4.6.7.62.62.61.63.64.66 #N/A [.44] [.47] [.] [.] [.2] [.3] [.4] [.].2.. 4.7 4.7 4. 4.6 4.7 4.3 % #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A DI 39.9 44.2 43. 4.1 38. 36. 49.6 2.6 47.3 4.3 % [36.73] [42.77] [48.33] [47.7] [47.] [49.8] [4.1] [41.2] 14,732 13,6 3,299 3,211 3,312 1,71 1,16 1,81 1,26 1,1 ( 8.7) ( 11.3) ( 6.) ( 7.3) (.3) (4.8) (1.4) (1.4) ( 3.) ( 9.1) 2113 1

2 [ ()( ) [ ] 29 21 21 211 211 1-12 1-3 4-6 6 7 8 17.1 14.9 (1.) (2.) ( 8.1) ( 1.3) ( 1.6) ( 3.4) (2.8) #N/A 7..2 (1.2) (.) (.2) (.) (1.1) (2.) (1.9) #N/A 9.9 14.6 (8.6) (2.4) ( 8.3) ( 1.8) ( 2.7) (.3) (.9) #N/A 2.2 16. (11.3) (11.4) (1.4) (12.4) (9.8) (9.9) (19.2) #N/A 18.4 3.3 (1.6) (4.) (7.4) (6.) (8.) (12.9) (12.) #N/A 7.3 12.4 (9.6) (7.2) (2.8) (.) (1.7) ( 2.6) (6.) #N/A 17,817 161,2 36,482 39,866 1,372,89,389 9,92 4,7 #N/A 6,996 64,9 19,233,77 1,34 7,713 1,299 1,233 6,947 #N/A 18,18 12,73 3,984 771,4 193 1,46 3,62 1,826 #N/A 123,113 97,221 1,192 34,31 8,947 1,13 1,783 7,31 31, #N/A 1,42,71 1,116,2 1,96,18 1,116,2 1,137,89 1,139,24 1,137,89 1,1,877 1,218,1 1,2,93 92.8 8.69 82.9 82.32 81.7 81.23 8.1 79.47 77.22 76.84 3 29 21 21 211 211 1-12 1-3 4-6 6 7 8.12.91.9.88.67.69.69.73.81.8 [.14] [.98] [.93] [.91] [.9] [.94] [.9] [.91] TIBOR.16.36.336.336.332.332.332.332.329.329 3 [.498] [.443] [.388] [.388] [.381] [.373] [.363] [.3] 1 1.33 1.127 1.72 1.242 1.16 1.1 1.13 1.8 1.3 1.2 ( [1.317] [1.337] [1.28] [1.26] [1.8] [1.] [.97] [.93] 1.449 1.37 1.382 1.37 1.349 1.346 1.349 1.338 1.337 #N/A (.1) (.2) (.8) (.13) (.3) (.11) (.1) #N/A 11,9 9,7 1,229 9,7 9,816 9,694 9,816 9,833 8,9 8,7 (22 [1,46] [11,9] [9,383] [9,769] [9,383] [9,37] [8,824] [9,369] 2 (2.9) (2.7) (2.6) (2.4) (2.8) (2.7) (2.9) (3.) (2.7) (2.7) (.) (.6) (.3) (.3) (.) (.3) (.3) (.8) (.6) (.7) (.8) ( 1.9) ( 2.) ( 1.8) (.8) (.8) (.6) (.6) (.) (.3) (.8) ( 2.) ( 2.1) ( 1.9) (.8) (.8) (.6) (.6) (.) (.3) (.4) ( 4.2) ( 4.6) ( 4.6) ( 2.8) ( 2.7) ( 2.7) ( 2.7) ( 2.6) ( 2.3) ( (2.4) (.6) (.9) (1.2) (1.) (1.4) (1.7) (1.8) (1.8) (1.9) (1.3) (.4) (.) (.) (.9) (.7) (1.1) (1.3) (1.2) (1.2) (.8) ( 1.3) ( 1.3) ( 1.1) (.7) (.7) (.6) (.) (.) (.2) 3 (2.9) (2.6) (2.7) (2.2) (2.7) (2.6) (2.8) (2.6) (2.1) (2.3) (3.) (2.6) (3.) (1.8) (2.3) (2.1) (2.2) (1.) (.6) (.9) (3.1) (3.1) (3.) (3.1) (3.4) (3.4) (3.7) (4.) (3.8) (4.) ( (1.8) (.6) (.1) (.9) (2.) (1.9) (2.2) (2.6) (2.7) (2.9) UFJ 11