2 ID POS

1... 1 2... 2 2.1 ID POS... 2 2.2... 3 3... 5 3.1... 5 3.2... 6 3.2.1... 6 3.2.2... 7 3.3... 7 3.3.1... 7 3.3.2... 8 3.3.3... 8 3.4... 9 4... 11 4.1... 11 4.2... 15 4.3... 27 5... 35... 36... 37

1 1 ID POS ID POS 1

2 ID POS. 2.1 ID POS POS Pont of Sales 2000 5 1 9 30 1 ID POS 16 12 1 2 3 42 22 2.1 2

2.1 S 2.2 [4] 1 1 1 4 3

[hpa] [hpa] [] [] [] [%] [%] [m/s] [m/s] [m/s] [] [mm] 1 [mm] 10 [mm] 17 1 [hpa] [hpa] [] [%] [m/s] [] [mm] 8 1 10 11 20 21 3 1 2.2 2.2 4

3 [135] 3.1 Y X Y X 0 1 Y X Y X 1 2 Y k X j j = 1, 2, L, k Y = β β + 1 + β 2 X 2 + L + k X k u = 1, 2, L, n) 3.1 β 1, β 2, L, β k u 0 2 σ 3 X 2, X 3, L, X k Y u Y β 1 + β 2 X 2 + L + β k X k k β 1, β 2, L, βk 3.1 u u = Y β β L + β ( 1 + 2 X 2 + k X k u u S = n 2 n u = = 1 = { y ( β + β X + L + )} X 1 1 2 2 k S ˆ β, ˆ β, L, ˆ β β 1, β 2, L, β 1 2 k k ) 2 5

2 βˆ β 2 0 k S / β =, S / β = 0, L, S / β 0 1 0 2 k = Y = ˆ β + ˆ β X + L ˆ β X βˆ 1 2 2 + E( Y ) Y ˆ = ˆ β + ˆ β X + L + ˆ β X 1 2 2 k k k k βˆ 1 cm mm 1/10 A cm B Y, X 2, X 3, L, X k s s, s,, s y, x2 x3 L xk ( Y ) s y, ( X 2 X 2) sx2, ( X 3 X 3) sx3, L, ( X k Y X ) k s xk 3.2 3.2.1 Y Yˆ e e = Y Yˆ = Y ˆ β ˆ β X L ˆ β X 3.2 1 2 2 X e u σ n = 1 = 1 2 = 1 3 X = 1 2 = n n 0 = 0 = 0 n e, e X, e X, L, e k = 0 3.2 k k s 2 n 2 = e ( n k) =1 3.3 2 e ( n k) e 3.2 k k 6

s s.e. s.e. 3.2.2 n 2 Y = Y Y ) 1 ( Y X 2 n 2 n 2 n ( Y Y ) = = ( Yˆ + = Y ) 1 1 = 2 e 1 e X X η 2 η n n ˆ n ( 2 = ( Y = Y ) 2 1 = 1 2 ( Y n = Y ) 1 = 1 2 η R = 1 Y e 3.4 Y Y ) 2 η 0 1 3.4 R 2 R 2 R 2 n 1 2 = 1 ( 1 η ) n k 1 2 3.3 3.3.1 2 H 1 2 α H 0 7

α x x p α p α 3.3.2 X, X, L, H 0 H 0 : β2 = β3 = L = βk = 2 3 X k Y X 2, X 3, L, X k Y H1 H 1 : β 2, β 3, L, β k 0 α F F ( F = n 2 n 2 ( Y Y e ) = 1 = 1 n 2 e n k = 1 0 ) k 1 H 0 F ( k 1, n k) F F ( k 1, n k) α F F F ( k 1, n k) p p α 3.3.3 1 1 2 2 3.3σ s βˆ s e.( ˆ β ) s j s j = n p= 1 ( X p X )( X pj X j ). s j X, X s j j 2 3.3 s V s s s βˆ s e.( ˆ β ) e j. s. e.( ˆ β ) = s V e H 0 8

H 1 H0 : β = 0 H1 : β 0 α t t 0 ˆ β = s. e.( ˆ β ) t 0 ( n k 1) t t ( n k 1) t 0 t t ( n k 1) p p α t F t 0 ˆ 2 β F = 3.5 ˆ 2 ( s. e.( β )) F F ( 1, n k 1) p α p α βˆ βˆ 3.4 0 βˆ Yˆ V e 0 βˆ Yˆ V e 0 βˆ 9

4 3.5 F F F F out F n 2.0 F 2.0 F n out n 1. 2 3 1 F F Fn 3 F n 3 3 F F F F out F F out 3 4 2 10

4 4.1 [][] 7 [] 3 [][mm][] 4.1 4.2 4.3 2000 5 1 9 30 150 4.1 11

4.2 4.3 12

4.4 4.5 2 4.4 4.5 13

7 1 3 1 3.4 4.1 4.1 7 7 1 3 3 1 7 1 3 1 7 3 2 7 4.1 0.3601 0.4468 0.3015 0.3836 0.4131 0.4513 0.4216 0.4873 0.7654 0.5052 0.4079 0.5529 0.6098 0.8709 0.0139 0.1138 0.0153 0.0469 0.0862 0.0446 0.0015 0.0364 0.0836 0.0021 0.0668 0.0159 0.1673 0.0748 0.1375 0.0187 0.0894 0.0403 0.0307 0.1890 14

4.2 1 4.1 7 4.2 4.3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 4.2 4.3 0.294729 0.305669 0.127981 0.139592 0.071826 0.092703 0.030630 0.045463 0.124452 0.119328 0.303684 0.302799 0.187692 0.200167 0.013849 0.030238 0.254548 0.262883 0.054439 0.066370 0.064732 0.068936 0.386657 0.390664 0.013050 0.151256 0.164894 0.227063 0.233718 0.283876 0.290589 0.131076 0.138726 0.107409 0.119892 0.069526 0.087581 0.644051 0.649611 0.426616 0.423279 0.788799 0.792190 15

0.6 2 3.1 7 4.4 4.5 4.4 6 1 1 6 0.05 0 1 2 6 7 4 6 1 2 6 7 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 y = x y = x 4.6 4.6 16

4.4 t 1.94720 16.72052 2.29E35 1 0.02353 0.31527 5.87276 2.91E08 2 0.00212 0.08930 1.55786 1.21E01 3 0.00317 0.04788 0.80462 4.22E01 4 0.00026 0.00255 0.04536 9.63E01 5 0.01135 0.01319 0.25731 7.97E01 6 0.63841 0.75627 14.72063 2.29E30 7 0.05677 0.07303 1.40205 1.63E01 0.64405 0.17877 39.51416 2.27E30 4.5 t 1.93727 17.26009 5.58E37 6 0.64453 0.76352 15.44123 2.01E32 1 0.02256 0.30230 6.00605 1.46E08 2 0.00251 0.10565 2.08517 3.88E02 7 0.06318 0.08127 1.62799 1.05E01 0.64961 0.17736 70.06028 6.48E33 4.6 1.27490 1.28907 1.91903 1.21670 1.27597 1.28614 1.33972 17

4.6 4.7 18

4.8 4.7 4.8 5 6 5 6 0.05 0 5 6 7 5 6 5 6 7 4.9 2 0.18 0.60.7 3 1 2 3 4.9 4.9 19

4.7 t 0.18260 2.41752 1.68E02 1 0.00083 0.01319 0.31905 7.50E01 2 0.00022 0.01123 0.25446 7.99E01 3 0.00238 0.04262 0.92972 3.54E01 4 0.00197 0.02290 0.52918 5.97E01 5 0.55379 0.76416 19.35568 1.17E41 6 0.45736 0.64343 16.25912 3.14E34 7 0.04270 0.06523 1.62578 1.06E01 0.78879 0.11595 80.49826 2.9E46 4.8 t 0.14608 11.35993 7.96E22 5 0.55254 0.76243 19.59286 1.05E42 6 0.45410 0.63885 16.40009 6.23E35 7 0.04169 0.06370 1.62881 1.05E01 0.79219 0.11501 190.33390 3.04E50 4.9 0.69862 0.13733 0.60018 0.13091 0.15879 0.15696 0.18777 20

4.9 0.3 21

4.10 0.30279 1 6 7 0.05 0 0.05 1 5 6 7 1 4.10 4.10 4.11 0.4 0.6 4.11 4.11 4.10 t 0.76888 19.45658 2.91E42 1 0.00899 0.46340 6.75080 3.29E10 7 0.04633 0.22938 3.19123 1.73E03 6 0.04716 0.21499 3.01236 3.06E03 5 0.04476 0.20014 2.80648 5.69E03 0.30279 0.06501 17.17796 1.49E11 4.11 0.55497 0.53385 0.55625 0.48854 0.50211 0.52892 0.56104 22

4.10 4.11 23

4.12 0.39066 0.05 0.05 1 7 4 1 4 7 4.12 4.13 4.12 4.13 4.14 0.4 0.9 4.13 4.13 4.12 t 1.18212 17.79641 2.14E38 1 0.01738 0.51472 7.66462 2.3E12 7 0.13265 0.37713 5.86637 2.86E08 4 0.01100 0.23805 3.54048 5.36E04 0.39066 0.10584 32.84279 2.77E16 4.13 0.65729 0.68155 0.68362 0.66399 0.67707 0.71055 0.81776 24

4.12 4.13 25

4.14 26

4.3 4.2 2 4.14 4.15 4.14 7 1 4.15 1 5 7 1 7 0.05 0 0.05 0.2947 0.3056 4.14 t 0.08349 2.09235 3.81E02 1 0.00481 0.26525 3.51027 6.00E04 2 0.00002 0.00439 0.05439 9.56E01 3 0.00131 0.08127 0.97014 3.33E01 4 0.00169 0.06793 0.85876 3.91E01 5 0.02380 0.11360 1.57464 1.17E01 6 0.01074 0.05228 0.72299 4.70E01 7 0.09537 0.50404 6.87409 1.82E10 0.29472 0.06125 9.89520 5.04E10 27

4.15 t 0.08437 2.29730 2.30E02 7 0.09919 0.52419 7.51709 5.21E12 1 0.00503 0.27694 4.04393 8.48E05 5 0.02616 0.12487 1.79554 7.46E02 0.30566 0.06078 22.86499 3.42E12 8 1 0 4.16 4.17 0.15 4.14 4.16 4.16 8 7 3 5 4.15 4.17 4.17 3 6 8 5 7 1 3 6 8 4.15 4.16 4.15 4.17 0.16 9 4.18 4.18 28

4.16 t 0.04136 1.65780 9.95E02 1 0.00311 0.17123 3.61617 4.15E04 2 0.00000 0.00034 0.00691 9.94E01 3 0.00216 0.13443 2.57735 1.09E02 4 0.00056 0.02272 0.46145 6.45E01 5 0.00691 0.03300 0.73135 4.65E01 6 0.00977 0.04756 1.05865 2.91E01 7 0.01263 0.06678 1.23645 2.18E01 8 0.18844 0.77763 15.06612 3.62E31 F 0.72784 0.03805 50.81118 7.68E38 4.17 t 0.03144 1.37039 1.72E01 8 0.19728 0.81411 18.97053 4.08E41 1 0.00286 0.15766 3.45949 7.11E04 3 0.00216 0.13391 2.92931 3.94E03 6 0.01253 0.06095 1.41734 1.58E01 F 0.73161 0.03778 102.54240 2.92E41 4.18 0.07647 0.05863 0.05416 0.05870 0.05951 0.07078 0.06228 29

4.15 4.16 30

4.17 4.19 4.20 4.19 5 5 5 0 0.05 0.42661 5 2 31

4.19 t 0.08502 3.56299 5.00E04 1 0.00060 0.05013 0.73568 4.63E01 2 0.00003 0.00869 0.11947 9.05E01 3 0.00119 0.11168 1.47847 1.41E01 4 0.00211 0.12837 1.79991 7.39E02 5 0.09380 0.67508 10.37787 3.98E19 6 0.01267 0.09298 1.42608 1.56E01 7 0.00794 0.06333 0.95792 3.39E01 0.42661 0.03663 16.83728 4.56E16 4.20 t 0.06384 19.73656 2.72E43 5 0.09081 0.65356 10.50511 1.24E19 0.42327 0.03673 110.35730 1.24E19 4.21 4.22 0.1 4.21 4.22 0.8 8 4.20 4.22 1 8 5 1 5 8 4.15 4.15 4.16 8 2 4.23 4.23 32

4.21 t 0.06560 6.17412 6.69E09 1 0.00036 0.02962 0.97871 3.29E01 2 0.00006 0.01714 0.53037 5.96E01 3 0.00035 0.03284 0.97443 3.31E01 4 0.00054 0.03283 1.02883 3.05E01 5 0.01011 0.07276 1.90415 5.89E02 6 0.00328 0.02409 0.82807 4.09E01 7 0.00500 0.03989 1.35827 1.76E01 8 0.11254 0.89675 24.06851 8.68E52 F 0.88696 0.01626 147.14260 1.66E64 4.22 t 0.06869 7.08933 5.34E11 8 0.11348 0.90423 24.72589 4.71E54 5 0.00767 0.05521 1.51009 1.33E01 1 0.00047 0.03915 1.42656 1.55E01 F 0.88788 0.01619 394.33480 8.74E70 4.23 0.07203 0.05315 0.05556 0.05246 0.05550 0.05406 0.05715 33

4.15 4.16 34

5 22 35

36

[1] 21999 [2] SPSS 1997 [3] 1991 [4] http://www.jma.go.jp/jma_hp/jma/ [5] http://aok2.s.gunma-u.ac.jp/lecture/ 37