II Vol. 11 2007 2008 3
3 4 10 1 TA 4 2008 1 31 2
2 3 1. 5 2. 20 3. 27 4. 36 4 5. 47 6. 55 7. 2005 64 8. 82 9. 90 99 112 3
3 4
1 1955 30 55 1958 1960 1960 1970 1990 55 28 1958 40 1993 5
1 50 40 30 20 10 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 (2007 2 6
0 1 0 2 2 1989 7
1967 2 1983 2 8 2003 29 1960 6 34 1983 2 8 2003 3 2 3 7 28 8
1 2 2 2 2 11 12 28 1958 2 5 3 2 55 1960 1960 1964 2 1960 28 4 32 1969 37 1983 32 40 1993 9 5 2 5 1983 37 1983 40 1993 2 40 5 9
4 1992 1 1 2 1983 37 40 5 10
2 2 1 2 2 20 20 2 30 5 19 28 39 25 19 28 39 25 37 38 39 40 17.62 14.44 15.38 15.00 10.35 24.06 18.63 18.16 17.25 12.04 22.65 13.99 15.37 15.34 11.14 66.03 51.35 51.67 46.24 43.56 28.32 16.82 17.82 18.04 15.90 42.29 31.69 35.76 34.66 27.40 25.69 12.58 14.07 13.05 9.95 23.23 16.49 20.99 18.19 15.85 11
17.82 13.66 14.12 12.80 11.36 26.94 12.45 12.92 13.43 10.58 21.87 16.02 16.59 16.68 11.98 27.30 17.79 18.21 17.09 11.96 14.10 10.21 10.44 13.01 11.21 23.30 16.64 17.84 18.06 12.72 26.94 12.24 11.32 13.13 11.46 25.86 13.79 13.53 14.29 11.06 25.58 16.29 15.85 14.43 14.01 29.11 18.69 17.12 20.14 18.35 22.19 8.25 7.24 7.61 5.69 34.48 12.79 14.96 16.13 11.28 29.76 7.42 6.97 8.94 7.44 17.49 7.08 10.41 10.93 9.83 35.23 16.50 12.80 15.71 15.41 27.93 12.30 2.10 17.23 12.41 25.49 8.92 9.68 11.58 10.32 10.18 6.83 12.10 7.76 5.90 11.19 8.78 7.21 6.58 5.47 5.42 4.61 4.40 3.49 3.20 8.68 6.07 5.73 5.76 6.47 11.10 7.66 7.63 6.79 5.64 5.94 4.17 3.18 3.74 3.61 9.74 8.62 8.00 11.21 8.78 13.22 9.94 7.80 7.84 8.38 54.67 44.80 47.94 46.19 42.02 57.59 43.30 45.60 41.13 39.97 57.68 51.43 54.13 50.25 46.70 35.26 28.71 32.53 31.86 28.04 21.28 14.36 18.87 16.25 14.83 18.97 14.63 16.11 16.11 15.46 31.92 22.21 22.27 21.14 19.16 22.50 20.00 20.68 22.20 19.07 28.10 22.02 21.18 23.34 19.27 33.03 28.31 32.65 26.92 23.34 32.18 24.03 28.48 24.52 22.41 34.32 25.18 26.67 28.09 26.99 21.02 17.78 19.13 20.84 19.18 1992 376 37 38 39 40 15.47 14.12 14.72 14.56 11.20 16.90 16.16 17.09 16.00 12.26 12
16.67 12.43 12.23 12.33 9.18 5.42 4.49 3.70 3.09 3.39 33.82 25.70 27.97 24.90 21.16 24.65 18.98 15.78 13.42 17.09 19.33 13.15 13.09 14.09 10.70 38.90 32.35 32.06 30.40 30.23 46.32 35.66 36.18 30.19 26.41 18.57 11.77 14.55 13.69 11.19 18.81 14.60 15.76 14.72 11.86 20.39 15.38 17.52 15.56 12.86 10.79 9.94 10.11 10.95 9.59 19.22 13.44 16.18 13.32 11.59 18.67 13.31 16.05 15.67 12.95 21.15 14.14 13.13 14.63 12.64 25.68 18.27 16.08 16.95 17.54 24.01 19.41 18.31 17.67 18.28 39.06 15.90 16.92 19.30 19.98 21.05 10.49 11.80 12.15 9.72 22.19 5.75 5.76 7.65 5.96 44.48 26.43 21.16 21.07 22.49 39.07 18.59 18.05 15.56 12.58 30.05 14.94 14.79 13.33 11.34 35.10 16.04 18.77 22.76 17.15 42.87 34.95 31.00 34.26 35.75 46.92 37.38 37.95 37.01 39.66 71.93 62.83 63.62 59.62 59.90 65.90 55.35 55.47 49.56 49.82 64.45 51.60 51.54 47.04 47.61 64.77 54.70 52.24 47.68 47.82 68.24 57.46 54.35 47.27 46.00 60.39 47.13 50.78 44.37 44.40 11.64 9.25 9.75 7.93 8.57 5.83 5.76 4.48 3.69 6.57 5.49 4.28 2.83 3.90 6.47 33.72 29.88 30.01 25.40 24.54 47.91 39.50 35.82 34.68 31.80 43.02 40.50 45.44 45.97 43.19 38.20 32.40 36.51 34.38 30.25 37.85 27.61 29.96 25.55 23.99 39.53 34.16 35.69 31.65 30.25 24.55 22.96 22.48 26.16 22.07 27.06 27.83 25.20 28.02 25.78 28.85 30.84 32.84 27.99 23.84 36.81 30.09 29.79 29.41 25.03 1992 376 13
2 1992 373 5 5 3 4 14
3 RS RS 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 37 38 39 40 ( ) RS RS 0.3 0.2 39 38 40 37 40 37 39 38 0.1 38 39 40 37 37 37 15
2 40 2 1983 37 1983 40 1993 16
2007 4 32 1983 8 7 2 24 1949 12 29 1960 17
8 34 1983 5 (1983 (1985 130 1960 35 1980 55 2 1960 1965 1970 1975 80 2004 18
2007 61-63 5 1990 1983 1986 1990 1993 1979 1983 1986 1990 1993 1985 1967 1983 2004 2007 1958-2005 1989 1990 1992 15 19
.. 20
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. (1) (2) 1993 1990 22
33 15 33 3 () 1990 1990 1. 12. 22. 2. 13. 23. 3. 14. 24. 4. 15. 25. 5. 16. 26. 6. 17. 27. 7. 18. 28. 8. 19. 29. 9. 20. 30. 10. 21. 31. 11. 32. 33. (3) 23
(4) 1. 1993 1990 1993 1990 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. (5). 24
: -0.270 0.000 0.314 0.490-0.023 0.665-0.037 0.513-0.075 0.162 0.004 0.944 0.012 0.814-0.170 0.003 * 0.528 0.054 * -1.300 0.000 0.377 0.000 R2 0.069 0.201 N 363 1990 1993. 25
* 1998 2005 1946-2003 http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/menu/report.html http://info.pref.kyoto.lg.jp/stat/statdbcityselectpage.aspx Google http://maps.google.co.jp/maps?tab=wl 26
1. 3-2. 1989 Lazarsfeld 3 3 1989 P209 27
JES 3 (1) 1 1 % P214 6-4 * ** 20 75 5 28 66 6 37 55 8 43 47 10 28 65 7 26 64 10 14 80 6 17 76 7 19 72 7 23 69 8 18 76 7 22 70 8 15 79 6 22 71 7 *,. ** %,( ) %, %. JES. 3. 3 1. JES 2003 2005 (2) 28
3 1 3 2. A A A A A A A A A A 3 A A A B A A A A 3 2. 2003 1 2 3 29
11 12 13 1 3 3 3 6 3 100 6 1 2 3 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 2 3 30
03 03 3 a b c d e f (N) g g 100 a b a b c d a b e f 1 JES 4 2 4 10 4 0 0 1 2 3 4 1 2 2 3 2003 3 318 156 25 13 14 31
4. 2 2 2 1 2003 2005 3 2 1 2 3 2003 3 2005 +7 2 % 2003 2005 2003 2005 50(+25) 25 53(+23) 30 28( 3) 31 37(+7) 30 4(+1) 3 4(+2) 2 8( 3) 11 6(+1) 7 10(+2) 8 6(+3) 9 8( 5) 13 8( 6) 14 (N) 664 558 516 382 5. 1 3 3 2 1989 1989 32
3 6. 1997 1930 3 1993 3 1995 2 47 12 1997 33
1997 1990 1 1990 P292-293 3 (P250 5) () () () () 1 2 3 4 () 34
(2) 21 JES III SSJDA 2001-2005 JES III Social Science Japan Data Archive 1990 ( ) 1997 1989 1986 35
1. 36
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. 38
. 1. 39
.... JES 2005 2005 40
. 1. 80.9 19.1 100.0 49.3% 50.7 100.0 JES 2005. 21.5 51.5 22.1 4.9 100.0 7.0 23.9 39.4 29.6% 100.0 JES 2005 41
6 3. 84.6 15.4 100.0 39.4 60.6 100.0 JES 2005. 42
73.0 27.0 100.0 67.6 32.4 100.0 JES 2005. 43
. 86.0 14.0 100.0 84.5 15.5 100.0 JES 2005 i 5 44
( 1 ) DK 1989 1988 1991 1987 1978 1994 1961 1987 45
46
1. 1999 10 5 1999 1 1999 47
(1) 48
49
2 3 1999 50
3 1 51
52
5. 2 1 2003 2 6. 53
(1) 1993 1996 1996 1993 1996 (2) 2 (3) JES JES JES LDB (4) JES JES 1 23 45 1 23 45 (5) 1993 1996 2001 2005 (6) R2 (7) (8) 54
1,1988,1988 55
1 2 16,1988 1 16 1 2 17 2 1 Q24 : 23 TBS 23 91.7 84.1 8.3 15.9 100(576) 100(1480) N 1975 000 56
Q: 87.8 86.1 12.2 13.7 100(137) 100(1838) N 1975.533 3 35 57
2 4 1 2 58
1 3 23 TBS TV 81.6 100 18.4 0 100(114) 100(23) N=137.025 4 TV 87.3 90.9 12.7 9.1 100(148) 100(22) N=164.633 3 4 59
3 100 2 5 23 TBS TV 88.3 50.0 11.7 50.0 100(162) 100(2) N=164.100 6 TV 84.6 100 15.4 0 100(136) 100(1) N=137.669 60
6 5 35 2,3 1712 2 4 5, 6 7 2 JES ****************************** 61
( 4) ( 3 ) ( 2) ************************** Q24 1. 2. 3. NewsS 1 4. 23 5. 6. Japan 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 2001 16. 14. 4 62
1997 2007 1988 1997 2007 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/ 2003 63
2005 1. 2005 2005 2007 2. 2 1. 1 64
2005, p88 Anthony Downs An Economic Theory of Democracy 1957) Uij = i = j = k = Rabinowitz(1989) Rabinowitz 2005 0 65
Mcdonald, Listhaug, and Rabinowitz1991 1997 2 (2005) 1995 2003 (2005) 3 2 2. 66
2005 67
3. 3 1. 2005 44 JES 2001-2005 (1) 3 1. 1 ( 2005) 0 100 (2) 50 ( 2005) 2 (2007)JES 2005 9 3 (3) 1 2 3 (4) (2005) n 68
jk 1 2 3 (2005) 3 1 2 1 ( 2005 2 Westholom 1997 Macdonald and Rabinowitz 1997 (2005) 69
JES A B 4 (5) 1,2,3,4 (4,3,2,1) 0 2 2 0 4 41 0 (6) (2005) 70
3 t R2 R2 4. 4 1. 1 2005 71
4 2. (2005) 1 2 *<.10 **<.05 ***<.01 (7) 72
(8) 3 73
2 3 *<.10 **<.05 ***<.01 R2 74
3 4 *<.10 **<.05 ***<.01 75
4 5 *<.10 **<.05 ***<.01 2 76
5 6 *<.10 **<.05 ***<.01 (2005) R2 77
5. 2 3 1.96 (9) 2 (Lewis and King 2000) 78
1 2007 2 (1 0 ) 1996 3 (2007) A 2 A (0.66) B (-0.66) B (-2 A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B 4 2005 (2007) 5 ) 4 79
5 1 2 4 6 0 2 7 (2007) 8 7 2 9 (2007) JES Downs, Anthony 1957,An Economic Theory of Democracy, New York: Harper & Row. 1980 2007 2007 80
Lewis, Jeffrey B., and Gary King 2000 No Evidence on Directional vs Proximity Voting Political Analysis 8 : 21-33. 199712 267-269 Rabinowitz, George, and Stuart Elaine Macdonald 1989 A Dirctional Theory of Issue Voting American Political Science Review 83:93-121. Rabinowitz, George, Stuart Elaine Macdonald, and Ola Listhaug 1991 New Player in an Old Game : Party Strategy in Mulitiparty Systems, Comparative Political Studies 4 : 147-185. 199813 17 27 1996 SAS 2005 81
1. 1945 1945 20 60 70 1989 82
. 1994 1994 JABISS 1976 JES 1983 JES1993 3 1990 3 83
(1). 2, 2000, 2000 JES/JES /JES 3 (2) 10 3 4 1. ( ) 20 30 84
4 2. x= Y= 1983 1993 1993 1924 1925 1934 2003 1924 1993 1983 2003 1975 1984 85
x= Y= x= Y= 1965 1974 86
. 1993 1 2 87
1993 2003 3 1965 1974 1993 1998 1993 1993 1. 1965 1974 88
( 1 ) R 1990 N D 1977 ( 1 ) JES JESJES JESJES LDB JES JES JES, SSJDA 2001 2005 JES Social Science Japan Data Archive 1993 2000 1998 1989 N.D.Glenn 1977 COHORT ANALYSIS SAGE Publications 1986 1994 no.15 53-72 89
R.(1970) (1). (1993) 90
(1997) 91
(1997) (2002) 5 5 (2) 3 96 98 96 96 92
N (96) -0.372*** -0.198*** 0.225*** 0.449 2580 (97) -0.429*** -0.216*** 0.414 2580 (98) -0.464-0.218*** 0.410 2580 P<=0.5* P<=0.1** P<=0.01*** 41 43 (3) 05 96 05 93
12 6 11 98-99 1 2 99-00 5 00(5 ) 3 00-01 12 01-02 3 02-03 16 03-04 16 04-05 11 05 4 05 11 05-06 3 06 1 07 6 93 05 94
A B 100 A H10 H9 B H9 ) H9 H10 A 100 110 B 10 20 (4) 95
4 (5) 0.135 0.152 0.070 0.112 0.174 0.129 0.093 0.145 0.141 0.162 0.140 0.170 (2002) 96
(1) (2) (3) (4) 1 (5) 1994 1988 1989 1997 16 2001 97
1993 17 2002 1981 1989 1989, JED-M() R. 1970 1993-2005 98
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