01 I: 02 II: 03 III: 04 IV: 08 V: 12 VI: 1 15 詳 細 情 報 mariko.tsugane@gold.org 81 3 3402 4826 johan.palmberg@gold.org +44 20 7826 4773 juancarlos.artigas@gold.org +1 212 317 3826 marcus.grubb@gold.org +44 20 7826 4724
7 0.54 01 01
I: DCFDiscounted Cash Flow 73 2 4 3 5 2013
II: 24 7 1 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 1971 Fiat currency 1 What drives gold?gold Investors Vol. 6, July 2013 02_03
III: Levin & Wright 2006 Levin & Wright 2006 2 1 3 3 2 3 0.02325 2 ECM Error Correction Model 4 1. ECM 2. 1 3. 2 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 1979 1976120058 0.64. 8.3 2 Short-run and Long-run Determinants of the Price of GoldEric J.Levin & Robert E. Wright June, 2006 World Gold Council 3 1976120058Levin&Wright World Gold Council, Gold and currencies: preserving purchasing power, Gold Investor, Volume 2, April 2013 4 CointegrationECM
2012 Levin & Wright 30 1 1 Levin & Wright Levin & Wright 1 1. ECM 2. 1 3. 2 4. 5. 6. 5 7. 1 6 8. 1976220103138 0.54 12 4.96 5 5 6 BBBAAA 04_05
20142 0.538 t 7 52 8 1 7 8 20119
1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0-0.5-1.0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 ECM ECM : Bloomberg, 06_07
IV: 4 2 500 2008 3 9 2009 2 BP 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0-1,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 : Thomson Reuters, 9
4 3 Financialization 1 5005 3 / 1,800 4 / 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 200 0 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 : 0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 : 5 / 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 : 08_09
6 1980 6: / 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0-50 : 0 50 100 150 200 250 19952013
7 2 7: /10 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 0 : 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 19952013 10_11
V: 2 8 8: 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 : Thomson Reuters, 9: BP 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 Thomson Reuters,
2013 All-in Cost 9 20002012 112072013 1620 10 10: : 12_13
VI: 30
1976 Q3-2014Q1 0.54 0.50 0.06 t - p- 0.01 0.01 0.50 0.62 ECM -0.02 0.01-1.62 0.11-1 0.17 0.07 2.44 0.02-2 0.13 0.07 2.03 0.05 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.06-0.84 0.16-5.42 0.00-0.01 0.00-2.61 0.01 0.05 0.02 2.26 0.03 0.06 0.03 1.90 0.06 ipad/ iphone 14_15
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