1 A 1 1
2
1961 50 2011 3 20 1 1 2 3 1 20 70 2 3 4 3
4
1 1 2 3 4 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 20 3 2 5
2010 23.1%2050 40% 2 1961 50 3 2005 1.26 2 23 3 21 6
1 1 1 1961 1985 1990 1 2 3 3 1 1 2011.10.28 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/topics/nenkin/zaisei/01/ 7
2 4 3440 450 3 2 20 60 130 1050 1 2 3 2000 2011 15000 4 330 65 66000 2 5 20 60 25 2 2 1 2 3 6 60 4 16.1% 15.5% 5 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/topics/nenkin/zaisei/zaisei/yougo/you-f01.html 6 19471949 8
2 21 1990 3 3 22 9
4 330 1 4 4 1 20 5 57.664.6 21.017.0 34.525.3 28.0 40 25 10
5 20 1 2 3 1 3 6 21 1 11
21 20 25 7 7 8 2011 66,000 7 25 8 12
4 15,000 66,000 21 54,258 49,170 8 9 10 1 21 9 10 13
http://www.mhlw.go.jp/bunya/seikatsuhogo/seikatuhogo.html http://www.mhlw.go.jp/bunya/seikatsuhogo/seikatuhogo.html 1 1 3 2 6 1-1 3-2 1 66,000 113 2,000 2 21 2 1961 196519691971 1973 11 1985 11 14
1990 1994 12 1999 2004 1999 2 2000 4 65 13 65 1961 1966 60 60 65 70 2002 4 2003 4 2004 14 30 2 3 2008 2006 12 1996 13 65 20% 14 2023 0.9% 15
16
2 1 2005 2005 25 25 35 25 2007 Probit 2 1 2006200720092009 20102006 2007 2 2009 2009 17
2010 3 2008 2007a 2010 2007 3 2007 18
4 2008 2.5% 2008 19
3 1 7 6 15000 2010 65 20 19 2 20
15 65 65 /65 / 110 1120 2130 3140 4147 4 2 21 12 24 p.20 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2 Hausman Breusch and Pagan 15 21
65-3.3413 [-4.55]*** -0.5618 [-0.17] -2.1367 [-2.26]** -3.2407 [-5.77]*** 6.386 [0.50] -0.2044 [-1.44] 0 [] -0.1256 [-0.06] -4.323 [-2.08]** -3.8911 [-1.77]* -8.5172 [-3.46]*** 84.2766 [7.22]*** -2.8467 [-3.98]*** -2.2894 [-3.51]*** 28.5782-10.6945 [1.98]* [-0.74] 0.0209-0.9415 [0.18] [-3.93]*** 0 0 1 [] [] -0.2243 0 2 [-0.17] [] -3.7904 0 3 [-2.83]*** [] -2.7234 0 4 [-1.89]* [] -7.9872 0 5 [-4.44]*** [] 56.6413 112.5791 _cons [4.38]*** [7.71]*** R-squared within 0.6657 0.6146 0.5093 R-squared between 0.1317 0.6217 R-squared overall 0.1364 0.6192 * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01 5 1 65 5 10 65 35 22
23
4 1 2008 1 3 65 1 65 1 1 3 1 GDP 65 65 2 24
20 20 200420 20 400 16 2006 20 () ( 20 ) ( ) 1.5 17 (1) (2) (3) (4) 3 3 (5) (6) 18 16 p.29 17 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/shingi/2007/01/dl/s0122-8d.pdf 18 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/shingi/2007/01/dl/s0122-8b.pdf 25
894508 56.9% 1819 8 8 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/shingi/2007/02/dl/s0208-3a.pdf 9 9 20 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/shingi/2007/02/dl/s0208-3a.pdf 19 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/shingi/2007/01/dl/s0125-15a.pdf 26
21 20 3 30 20 20 20 30 20 20 30 1 20 20 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/shingi/2007/02/dl/s0208-3b.pdf 21 2011 11 1 27
1 1 66,000 2 2008 2008 2008 36 3.6 40 30~34 28
2008 22 19.0% 8.3% 6 22 7 8 2008 22 2008 =25~54 ()/(25~54 ())-(25~54 ()) 29
8 2008 2008 7 100% 9 8 30
http://www.mhlw.go.jp/bunya/seikatsuhogo/seikatuhogo.html 9 25,000 40,000 1 10 9 10 31
2007a 2007 H18-8 pp.4-11 2007No.35 pp31-49 2009 pp.60-79 2010 pp.51-73 2001 No.42 pp.44-60 2010 2007 pp.54-78 2006 528 2007 No.158, pp.30-44 2008No.28, pp.1-10 2008 2009 No.39 2, pp.93-115 2005 2005 494 2005No.25, pp.71-82 2011 Vol.40 No.2 pp.153-165 2005 2003 2007b 87 pp.119-139 2009 pp.319-352 32
2011[] 2007 H18-8 2008No.43, pp1-18 2006 2005No.24, 3 pp.11-18 2009 Vol.159 2011 11 1 19961994 No.33 pp.64-92 2011 pp13-27 2007a- -No.38, 1 pp.165-189 2007b H18-8 pp13-31 2008 2008 2008 2008 2010 2 45 1234 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/topics/bukyoku/nenkin/nenkin/toukei/gaikyo/index.html 2011 11 17 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/topics/bukyoku/nenkin/nenkin/toukei/nenpou/2008/index.html 2011 11 17 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/list/141-2.html 2011 11 17 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/topics/bukyoku/nenkin/nenkin/toukei/k-nenkin/index.html 2011 11 17 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/list/140-2.html 2011 10 21 33
http://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/shingi/2r98520000008f07.html#shingi22 2011 10 14 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/shingi/2r98520000008f07.html#shingi27 2011 10 28 21 23 1 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/topics/bukyoku/nenkin/nenkin/toukei/dl/h21a.pdf 2011 11 17 21 http://www.mhlw.go.jp/topics/bukyoku/nenkin/nenkin/toukei/nenpou/2009/dl/gaiyou.pdf 2011 11 17 http://www.sia.go.jp/infom/tokei/index.htm 2011 11 17 http://www.stat.go.jp/index.htm 2011 11 17 http://www.e-stat.go.jp/sg1/estat/newlist.do?tid=000001011429 2011 11 17 http://www.cas.go.jp/jp/seisaku/syakaihosyou/index.html#kakugihoukokuarea 2011 11 17 34