2009528 28 BCM)
4
5
4cm 8cm 1992 7
400 220 200 100 100 192385 5060 1985 10199222 2005/7/23M6.0 HP200166 8
http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/ http://www.bousai.go.jp/index.html 9
10
7.3 11
13
BCPBCM ( 14
15
RiskLink 98 178 16
地盤データ 地盤の地震動増幅率 地震動予測モデル 液状化可能性 17
1km 100m 18
100 etc. 60 30 T30 T60 T100 19
20
15 90 21
1703M8.25 136 0.100% 0.100% M8.1 130 0.142% 0.241% M7.9 112 0.290% 0.530% M7.20 96 0.177% 0.706% M7.20 85 0.172% 0.877% 22
( Σ Σ 1001 82 136 23
100.00% 100% Damage Ratio 10% 10.00% 1% 1.00% 0.1% 0.10% 0.01% WWindspeed 24
P 4 P 3 P 2 Pi P 1 L 25
26
ELULVaR 0 27
VaR 90VaR 99VaR 10 1 0.1 99.9VaR 90VaR 99VaR 99.9VaR 28
Q.100 A10.4%99.6%100 Q1% A55 0.4% 55 30
-1 31
-2 P 1 P 2 1 2 32
R&I)2008 33
10% (10-1 ) 1% (10-2 ) 0.2% 0.1% (10-3 ) 0.01% (10-4 ) 0.001% (10-5 ) 0.0001% (10-6 ) 0.017% 0.016% 0.00022% 0.00008% 0.91% 0.064% 0.0080% 0.0067% 0.00007% 0.23% 0.12% 0.10% 0.067% 0.025% 0.12% 0.040% 0.019% 0.0053% 0.0011% B BB BBB A AA AAA 34
AAAAAA BBB BBB A AA AAA AAA AAA AAA 35
90 1 2 36 3
37
107-0052 3-11-15 4F TEL: 03-5575-7189 E-mail: toshihiro.yamada@oyorms.co.jp http://www.oyorms.co.jp/
ART Alternative Risk Transfer ART 40
ART 41
B/S 42