49 : 2001.6.9 1988 8 31 3 5 17 1973 JR 1997 10 JR 1 2 3 4 1. 1.1 1984 12 26 5 1 2 1 2
27 28 1985 1982 1984 1985 11 15 2 1.2 1986 11 28 12 7 1987 4 1 5 29 6 5 5 6 23 2
10 10 30 3 12 17 1.3 1988 1 8 11 8 3 5 JR 67 100 1987 12 16 1988 8 16 11 11 25 11 29 12 8 1989 4 3 4
50 25 5 12 14 6 1989 1 11 50 1 17 1989 11 1989 7 1.4 1989 1 17 4 8 5 6 10 7 7 1989 2 15 8 4 2
1993:335 1990 11 27 11 30 12 7 12 24 2 2.1 1987 12 97% 9 10 11 12 24 12 26 1988 1 8 2 12 8 9 14 10 16 3000 11 1989 1 11 9 10 11
1 17 2.2 1989 5 31 12 1 17 6 28 9 1 1 9 13 1 1989 11 1 1990 12 10 11 1991 2 21 1991 8 29 2 184 1992 7 13 1993 1 2.3 1993 12
1993 5 21 5 21 300 13 1995 2 27 131 9 1 4 50 67 75 9 15 4 110 150 1995 10 16 11 13 4 12 7 12 27 1996 1 11 3 1996 2 9 3 3.1 1990 11 30 14 12 13 1995 7 10 21 14
12 14 15 2 1 10 16 5 23 6 3 6 5 6 8 1991 8 30 10 3.2 1991 1 2.7 30 4 15 1995 8 23 16 1995 8 23
1995 103 1996 4 19 5 1 10 20 2001 4 4.1 3 1999 1990:21 JR JR 17 17
2001 1995 1995 1995 3
4.2 2000b
18 2000a 18
,,,.
Allison,G.T.,1971,Essensce of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis: Boston, Little,Brown and Company. 1977
Hilgartner,S. and Bosk,C.L.,1988 The Rise and Fall of Social Problems:A Public Arenas Model.American Journal of Sociology 94(1) pp.53-78