An Experimental Study on Reliability of Travel Time of Local Buses Running in a Congested Road Network 2004 04N8100036J Goshiro MIZUMOTO 2006 3 1
8 8 OD 1
1... 1 1.1...1 1.2...2 2... 4 2.1...4 2.1.1 ()...4 2.1.2 ()...5 2.2...6 2.2.1 ()...6 2.2.2 ()...8 2.2.3...10 2.2.4...12 2.3...13 2.3.1...13 2.3.2 (10m )...14 2.3.3...15 3... 18 3.1...18 3.2...20 3.2.1...20 3.2.2...21 3.2.3...22 3.2.4...24... 27 4.1...27 4.1.1...27 4.1.2 OD...28 4.1.3...29 4.2...33 2
4.2.1...33 4.2.2...42 4.3...49 4.3.1...49 4.3.2...49 4.3.3...52... 57 5.1...57 5.2...58... 59... 60 A... 62 B... 64 C... 67 D... 69 3
1 1.1 1.1 1.1 PC [7][8] [9][10] 5 5 1 4
1.1 1.2 5
(10m ) 8 () 8 6
2 2.1 2.1.1 () [1] 1 6:0024:00 () 1 2005 5 9 ()5 13 () 5 23 8 102 1 669 2.1 2.1 2.1 () 02 200 63 45 64 59 65 2 69 69 60 71 39 74 66 86 131 7
2.1 2.1.2 () ( )GPS 2005 4 7 ()4 12 () 5 10 63 1 158 2.2 2.2 ( ) 027428 2.2 85 1 8
2.2 () 7111 18 7211 19 7311 20 8111 10 8311 13 7110 17 7210 18 7310 20 8110 10 8310 13 () 2.2 2.2 2.2.1 () ( )2.1.1 9
<> Step1. 1 () Step2. Step3. Step4. Step5. Step4 2.3 Step1 A F 2.4 Step2 7:00 AB 1 7:01 CD AB CD 7:02 DE AB CD AB DE AB 2 7:03 EF BC DE BC EF 7:04 CD BC CD EF 7:04 EF 2.4 5 9 () 1 2.2 2.3 95 10
2.3 (:) 7:00 7: 01 7:02 7:03 7:04 7:05 7:06 EF DE CD BC AB 2.4 7:00 7: 01 7:02 7:03 7:04 7:05 7:06 EF 1 2 DE 1 CD 1 2 3 BC 2 AB 1 2 3 2.3 1 2.2.2 () ( )2.1.2 11
( ) <> Step1. Step2. 7111 ID 1km ID 0 Step3. 7111 ID ID 7111 Step4. ID Step5. Step2Step4 Step3 ID0 ID ID ID ID 4 7 1 2.4 2.4 24 80 12
2.4 1 2.2.3 2.2.1 2.2.2 () [1][2] () 2.5 2.6 86 7211 13
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2.5 86 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2.6 7211 2.5 2.6 13 17 () 14
2.2.4 2.2.1 2.2.2 A 9:00 B 9:02 AB 2 i c i (2.1) c i = 1 n i n i i= 1 d i t t i i (2.1) d : i i t i n i :i :i c 1 2.7 i 86 2.8 7111 86 7111 A 2.7 86 15
2.8 7111 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.3.1 2 () () y x y x 2 16
y i m = α j x j= 1 ij + α o ( i = 1,2, L, n) (2.2) y i : x ij : α j : [3] 2.3.2 (10) 2.2.4 (10) 5 4 (1994 )(1996 ) 8300km 2 3600km 2 ( 4km 3km) 10 2.3 17 17
2.3 01 () 02 03 04 05 06 07 3 1 100 08 3 1 100 09 4 10 11 4m 12 13 14 15 16 17 2.3.3 2.3.1 10m (6:0010:59)(11:0017:59)(18:0023:59) 3 18
(2.1) 1 4 1 4 42 40 100m 2.4 2.4 (2.2) 2.9 2.11 ( ) () 2.9 2.11 45 0.4758 0.4863 0.4830 2.9 2.11 2.4 (100 ) -0.0196-2.0708-0.0284-2.0968 (100 ) -0.1089-1.8555-0.0802-1.3763 (100 ) 0.0114 2.9217 0.0086 2.0693 0.0106 2.1835 (100 ) 0.0071 3.0111 0.0116 3.9092 0.0110 3.6642 (100 ) 0.0029 3.2354 0.0018 1.8637 0.0035 2.9356 (100 ) 0.0014 1.3375 0.0026 2.3254 0.0022 1.9927 (100 ) 0.0022 1.3214 () -0.5488-3.6993-0.3313-2.9462-0.4265-3.0626 19
2.9 2.10 2.11 20
3 8 () ( ) 646 4,499 1,006 ()1,022 () 1 120,000 4,544km 23,848km 3.1 0 10km 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 21
8 8 3.1 3.4 A 3 3.2 3.3 3.1 8 24 186 1576 44 297 1799 42 210 2677 10 63 312 39 463 2405 113 744 6256 323 2393 24293 51 143 3194 22
0 1km 3.6 3.2 3.2.1 [4][5] 3 23
3.2.2 3.2 : : : : : : : 1 1 0 3.12 ( ) () () 24
() 3.13 3.12 3.13 3.2.3 3.2.2 25
: 3.14 () ( A) ( B) ( A) ( B) ( A) ( B) 3.14 2 x, y ),( x, ) ( x x + y ) 1 2 1 y2 40 ( 1 1 2 y2 () (3.1) 1/ 1000 (3.1) 40 55m 1 25m [6] (3.1) 26
(3.1) 3.15 3.15 3.2.4 3.2.3 3.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 : 3.16 27
() ( A) ( B) () ( A) ( B) () ( A) ( B) () 3.16 3.2.3 (3.1) (3.1) 3.17 28
3.17 29
4 4.1 4.1.1 3 ( )( )() 2.3.3 c i d i i d = t + t c (4.1) i i i i c :i i t :i i (4.1) 4.1 4.1 0 15 0 0 100m 10m 0 4.1 4.1 3 4.1 30
4.1 4.1 1,162,222 1,162,222 2,805,640 2,807,540 537,455 537,455 581,095 581,095 575,993 575,993 1,111,097 1,112,997 4.1.2 OD OD() 3 7:008:59 11:0012:59 17:00 18:59 3 1 100,000 1 4.2 31
4.2 () 59 17 80 18 57 36 81 57 4.1.3 () Dijkstra A A( A A) B B( B B) A B A B <> : 8:17 :a :d 4.2 A A 3.16 a 8:17 a 8:17 d d 4.3 A 32
4.4 B B 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.5 c 8:25 8:20 8:15 8:29 8:24 8:19 8:35 8:29 i 8:45 8:39 j 8:51 8:45 d 8:54 8:48 1 a b 2 4.2 () 33
c 8:25 8:20 8:15 3 2 1 a 8:29 8:24 8:19 6 5 4 b 8:35 8:29 i 8 7 8:45 8:39 10 9 j 12 11 8:51 8:45 14 13 8:54 8:48 d 4.3 A () c 8:28 8:23 8:18 8:38 8:33 8:27 i 8:35 8:29 8:45 8:39 8:51 8:45 d 8:54 8:48 a b j 1 2 4.4 () 34
c 8:28 8:23 8:18 3 2 1 a 8:38 8:33 8:27 6 5 4 b 8:35 8:29 i 8 7 8:45 8:39 10 9 j 12 11 8:51 8:45 14 13 8:56 8:50 d 4.5 B () 4.3 A() 31 B() 32 A() 17 B() 24 A() 14 B() 8 A 25791113 B 14791113 A abijcd B abijcd 4.3 1 2 A B A B 3 4.3 35
4.2 4.2.1 4.1.1 4.1.2 4.6 4.8 B A 4.6 4.8 ( 1 ) A B 45 3 4.6 36
4.7 4.8 37
4.6 4.8 B A 3 45 1 2.2.3 4.9 4.11 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.11 B A 4.12 4.14 4.6 4.8 4.12 4.14 B A 4.9 38
4.10 4.11 39
4.12 4.13 40
4.14 B A 3 4.15 4.17 4.6 4.8 B A 41
4.15 4.16 42
4.17 4.15 45 45 4.16 45 () 4.17 A 4.2 4.18 4.19 1 4.6 4.8 43
A B C 4.18 4.19 44
4.18 8 1 4.18 40 1 1 4.19 1 1 4.18 4.2.2 4.1.2 3 4.2.1 4.20 4.22 A 10 A 2030 10 5 3 2 0.5 0.3 0.2 4.23 4.25 3 45
4.20 4.21 4.22 46
4.23 4.24 4.25 47
4.20 4.22 50100 60 4.23 4.25 3 60 90 70 4.2 4.26 4.29 1 4.20 4.22 D 4.26 48
4.27 4.28 4.29 49
4.28 040 1 1 4.26 4.27 4.29 A 3.1 1 4.30 4.33 1 4.25 4.27 4.30 50
4.31 4.32 4.33 51
2 50 4.30 4.32 1 1 4.31 4.33 1 50 4.3 4.3.1 4.1.2 1 7 8 3 (DID) [18]3 4000 /km 2 4000 /km 2 4.1.2 3 7:008:59 4 100,000 4.3.2 4.1.1 4.3.1 52
4.34 4.37 4.6 4.8 4.34 4.35 53
4.36 4.37 54
4.34 4.37 B 4.38 4.38 () 4.36 4.38 4.3.3 4.1.2 3 4.3.2 55
4.39 4.42 4.20 4.22 4.43 4.46 4.23 4.25 4.39 4.40 56
4.41 4.42 4.43 57
4.44 4.45 4.46 58
4.38 4.45 30 2 55 59
5 5.1 10m () 8 3 3 4 60
5.2 61
62
[1] ( ) <http://www.kotsu.metro.tokyo.jp/>( 2005-5-9) [2] ( ) <http://www.kyotobus.jp/>( 2005-7-15) [3] Jul 1991 [4] vol.48pp.85-1082005 [5] 2004 [6] 1992 [7] 25 pp.273-276oct2005 [8] 25 pp277-280oct2005 [9] 35 pp451-4562000 [10] 24 pp293-296oct2004 [11] ( ) <http://www.kotsu.city.osaka.jp/>( 2005-10-15) 63
[12] ( ) <http://www.city.kyoto.jp/>( 2005-10-15) [13] ( ) <http://www.city.kobe.jp/>( 2005-10-15) [14] ( ) <http://www.nankaibus.jp/>( 2005-10-15) [15] ( ) <http://www.hanshin.co.jp/bus/>( 2005-10-15) [16] ( ) <http://bus.hankyu.co.jp/>( 2005-10-15) [17] ( ) <http://www.sanyo-railway.co.jp/>( 2005-10-15) [18] ( ) <http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kokusei/2005/kouhou/>( 2006-2-8) 64
A A.1 A.11 A.1 63 A.2 02 A.3 64 A.4 65 65
A.5 69 A.6 71 A.7 74 A.8 7211 A.9 7311 A.10 8111 66
A.11 8311 67
B B.1 B.7 0 1km 0 1km B.1 B.2 0 1km 0 1km B.3 B.4 68
0 1km 0 1km B.5 B.6 0 1km 3.11 69
C C.1 C.4 C.1 C.2 70
C.3 C.4 71
D D.1 D.4 D.1 D.2 72
D.3 D.4 73
(Goshiro MIZUMOTO) 358-0026 1-14-11 TEL: 04-2965-6282 74