20141015
2
3
4
5
IT 6
7
8
2030 2030 1010 9
10 95233 3 500 500 100 14 100 30 30 10 10 75 233 3 釜 茨 薩
500 500100 10030 3010 10 釜 186 253 11
2030219/2277131.32 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 5.3% 4.2% 5.7% 0.8% 2.3% 3.0% 5.0% 7.2% 8.2% 11.5% 12.5% 15.3% 21.0% 22.1% 27.5% 27.2% 33.8% 釜 2010 2030 0.5% 50.0% 60.0% 51.2% 500 100 100 30 30 10 10 釜 10 12
1010 2011 2030 6.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 1.6% 1.8% 0.3% 1.1% 4.0% 3.2% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 8.4% 500 100 100 30 30 10 10 20102012RIETIJILPT2013 13
900.5 1 14
TFP TFP 15
200 16
170 150 (2030)/(2010) 130 110 90 70 50 R =0.69792 30 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 (2030) 253 17
99500995009950099500 2010 2020 2030 2040 () 100 9094 8084 7074 6064 5054 4044 3034 2024 1014 0 4 0 50 100 150 () 20XX)) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 24 253 18
20403 2015 (2010 2040) 2010 2020 2030 2040 2030 75 65 2025 20.1% 75 65 2030 2035 茨 51.2% 75 65 2040 27.3% 253) 253 24 19
110 100 90 80 70 60 130 120 110 100 90 80 2411 (2012)/(2010)100 2 253 253) 20
2040 2012 2040 110 100 90 80 70 60 (2012)/(2010)100 253) 253 21
2040 81/30% 65 65 20XX (2010) 4.1% (2040) 12.1% % % % % % % (2010) (2040) 253) 25(255264) 25 253 22
23
24
Syverson 25
6 5 4 2 4 6 8 10 2012 y = 0.1159x + 4.9783 R² = 0.1817 20102011 y = 0.1207x + 5.7889 R² = 0.2258 7 20102011 6 5 2 4 6 8 10 26
100/ 25 y = 3.559x + 4.3432 R² = 0.467 20 15 10 5 100/ 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 y = 16.496x + 6.2318 R² = 0.6559 100/ 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 y = 8.1331x + 6.1448 R² = 0.4403 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 100/ 12 10 8 6 4 y = 6.2545x + 1.5135 R² = 0.6578 100/ 8 7 6 5 4 3 y = 2.4071x + 0.9266 R² = 0.8154 100/ 5 4 3 2 y = 1.7073x + 0.5172 R² = 0.8011 2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2012 2 1 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 27
2012 28
2012 29
20102012RIETIJILPT2013 5 30
1003010 2012 31
2012 32
33/4 2 38 2012 33
262129 215.1284 70 2012 34
29%27% 77%73% 3.1 10.6% 10.8% 2.8% 3.2% 200g3,000 2.0 1010 9.0% 11.8% 7.7% 5.0% 15.1% 11.8% 6.1% 3.2% 14.2% 12.0% 14.9% 5.0% 35
2517 294.4284 10 2012 36
5%17% 14.1 9.8% 7.0% 2.0% 4.3% 1978 245 1993 1973 110kg100 14.4% 10.8% 5.1% 4.3% 37
422020 348.528465 2012 38
44% 32% 12.0% 9.8% 3.7% 4.4% 15.2% 11.7% 7.5% 4.4% 39
100 10 296.828410 20102012RIETIJILPT2013 40
2012 41
42
43
44
45
46
10a2012 47
5,0001200m 1 2,500 62,604 1 2011 74.9% 3.6 93.7% 66.5% 46.3 1.2% 5.1 50.3% 19.465 1.5% 2.4 5 17.130.2 2011 2010 2010 2012 5 2010 1993 48
19902010250+5.3%5.2% 2030297(6.0%)17.1%26.8%201023.0% 201027.4%203037.2% 140513.3%20002010 49 49
2010 50
Static Population Dynamic Population 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
97.0% 3.0% 4,680 28,753 725 58
59
OB JETRO 60
13193861994 () () () 711 34,900 (769) () 61
() () () ( 62
鯖 617 1942013 583 7 63
64
1.5 65
24 2012 66
301010 10 67 2012 25.813.5 9.07.816.516.5 17.929.216.719.3 27.34.010.613.1 11.57.1 2.69.4 13.58.910.010.8 7.311.74.121.1 10.83.25.221.4 7.33.8 27221
68
69
& cloudnetworks 70
2012 71
14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 廃 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 72
105 73
TRU SAM 74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
253 1498[] 89
1,000 2013 1536 27,7499,200 90
20 56 M&A 60 58 58.9 110 100 90 =100 56 80 54 54 70 63 52 50 60 20 55 10 50 51 4 40 1990 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 20104 20142014 91
92
98 29.0 46.9 53.3 12.8 17.7 40.3 93
25 75.3% 80.0% 67.1% 70.0% 20 15 10 5 0 37.5% 5.7% 0.7 50.7% 42.4% 59.7% 35.7% 57.0% 38.6% 0.0% 52.4% 15.7% 1.8 27.4% 26.6% 0.2 2.5% 18.8% 7 0.2 1.7% 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 94
NPO NPO NPO 36524 14 233 1222410 371 95
96
97
98
1056441 99
100
2012ROA ROA 12012 105 2 101
1 102
2005 2005 FISC 103
201112 104
100 380507113 3.398 24. 24 105
DES 10 300 30, 280 3001001/3 66200 10001001 22 106
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 () IT 鞘 107
201112 108
31.726.1 109
100 HP 110
38.3 39.2 111
HP 112
113
114
115
Plan A 116
Plan B 117
118
119
120
& & 121
122
1 2 3 34 3559 60 30 3039 4049 5059 60 1521 22 1521 22 1521 22 123
➀ 124
25192525 125
126
127
128
129 or
or. 0.5 15 40% 6 5 60 20% 10 1 20 35% 7 7.5 75 15% 11 3 30 30% 8 10 90 10% 12-25.07-52.06 0.29-6.09 5.75 16.81 19.03 41.34-79.52 21.59-28.63 19.24 35.48-14.10 74.67-26.73 130
3.0 2.6 2.7 3.3 16.2 25.8 13.3 12.8 8.4 6.5 8.2 5.5 3.3 0 20 40 60 80 100% 25.8 1 16.2 2 13.3 3 12.8 4 8.4 5 8.2 6 6.5 7 5.5 8 3.3 9 131
132
1990 133
134
65 135 2010 2010 2010 22
5 5~ 29 30~ 99 100~ 499 1000 1 36.1% 27.0% 18.6% 13.8% 8.4% 2 50.1% 40.3% 29.3% 23.0% 15.5% 20144 20148 136
137 47 5
: 0.7 1.21.5 1.9 30: 50 70 90 138
139
140
20154 1,400 5 141
26.0 (5.1%) 35.1 (7.3%) 54.0 (8.9%) 17.3% 24.1% 30.3% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 65 GDP 510.8 2000 GDP 472.6 2012 GDP 610.6 2025 GDP 0.93 GDP 1.27 1.35 1.54 1.39 1.26 GDP 142
23 23 143
144
145
146 :
147
148
<> <> 25,714(3,331) 3,460 114.406 (H22.4H23.3) 149
150
The Lancet ( 151
152 50% 7.10.3 3.3 3.7 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
80,0008 70,0007 1,600 1,550 60,0006 1,500 1,497 50,0005 40,0004 1,473 1,458 1,443 1,431 1,419 1,450 1,400 30,0003 1,350 20,0002 1,300 10,0001 1,250 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,200 153
154
155
茨 800 700 66 70 60 600 500 400 300 200 13 17 700 50 40 30 20 100 0 24 47 10 0 17 156
157
158
159
160
161