4 4.1 1 4.1.1 GSM GSM PoT MSM MSM PoT 20 km 3 PoT 2 GSM PoT MSM PoT 2009 7 ( 2009) 3 2015 5 26 4.1.2 4.1.3 4.1.4 4.1.5 GSM PoT MSM PoT GSM PoT MSM PoT 4.1.2 (1) (2) (3) (2007) (2009) (1) 4.1.1 6 3 SSI 4 CAPE 5 3 3 1 2 (0,1) p a i x i ln( p ) = a 1 p 0 + a 1 x 1 + a 2 x 2 + 3 GSM PoT 2014 3 GSM ( 2014) MSM PoT MSM 2013 5 39 ( 2013) FT=30, 33 4 SSI (Showalter s Stability Index) 5 CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) AIC 6 (i) (vi) SSI CAPE 850 hpa 10 C CAPE 3 (i) SSI SSI SSI 850 hpa 500 hpa SSI(850 500 hpa) SSI(850 500 hpa) 10 C 10 C 3 km 925 hpa 700 hpa SSI(925 700 hpa) SSI(850 500 hpa) SSI(925 700 hpa) SSI SSI(925 700 hpa) 4.1.1 2015 1 19 00UTC SSI MSM PoT 10 C 3 km MSM PoT SSI(925 700 hpa) MSM PoT 500 hpa SSI(850 500 hpa) PoT SSI(925 700 hpa) SSI(850 500 hpa) MSM PoT MSM PoT SSI (ii) CAPE SSI 6 AIC (Akaike s Information Criterion) L k AIC = 2 ln L+2k AIC AIC 64
4.1.1 3 SSI(850 500 hpa) CAPE 10 C 3 km SSI(925 700 hpa) 3 km 10 C 700 hpa 700 hpa 850 500 hpa 500 hpa 850 hpa 10 C 5 km CAPE 3 4.1.1 2015 1 19 00UTC SSI (a) SSI(925 700 hpa)[ C] (b) SSI(850 500 hpa)[ C] (c) (d) MSM PoT[%] (e) (f) MSM 500 hpa [ C] [m] A.2.7 CAPE CAPE 925 hpa CAPE CAPE(925 hpa) 7 CAPE(925 hpa) CAPE(925 hpa) PoT 4.1.2 CAPE CAPE PoT CAPE PoT PoT CAPE PoT CAPE(925 hpa) CAPE PoT 7 925 hpa 65
4.1.2 2014 5 28 18UTC CAPE PoT (a) CAPE[10 3 J/kg] (b) CAPE[10 3 J/kg] (c) (d) GSM PoT[%] (e) (f) A.2.7 4.1.3 MSM (a) [mm] (b) 10 C 3 5 km FT=3 9 Spr, 3 5 Sum, 6 8 Aut, 9 11 Win, 12 2 (All) 50% (iii) 4.1.3 MSM 10 C 3 5 km FT=3 9 3 1 4.1.3(a) 8 4.1.3(b) (iv) 850 hpa 8 4.1.3(a) 18 mm 25 mm 66
PoT (v) 9 10 C 10 C 5 km 10 C 10 C 5 km 500 hpa 10 C (vi) CAPE 3 CAPE 3 (2) (i) 10 C (ii) 20 km 10 (iii) 3 (i) 10 C 4.1.2 10 C 3 km 3 5 km 5 km 5 km 4 3.5 km 2.5 5.5 km 4.5 km 9 850 hpa 850 500 hpa 10 (2009) 2.1.19 4.1.2 10 C 10 C 3 km 3 5 km 5 km 5 km 4 10 C 3.5 km 2.5 5.5 km 4.5 km 4.5 km 4 10 C 3 km 3 5 km 5 km 5 km 4 4.5 km 4 10 C PoT (3) GSM PoT MSM PoT (1) (2) GSM PoT 100 GSM 100 GSM 100 4.1.4 60 GSM 4.1.4 100 GSM 60 GSM 100 2 2012 12 2013 11 4.1.3 MSM PoT 4.1.4 67
4.1.4 60 GSM 100 GSM GSM ( 2014) GSM 100 GSM 2012 12 2014 3 100 GSM GSM ( 2014) 100 GSM 4.1.3 GSM PoT MSM PoT 2014 4 2015 3 1 20 km 11 GSM PoT 00, 06, 12, 18UTC MSM PoT 03, 09, 15, 21UTC ETS BSS GSM PoT FT=15 36 MSM PoT FT=12 33 BSS FT=6 84 FT=6 39 3 FT=12 84 12 FT=6 39 6 4.1.2 (3) GSM PoT 100 GSM PoT MSM PoT ETS 4.1.5(a), (b) GSM PoT MSM PoT ETS ETS ETS GSM PoT MSM PoT 20% 4.1.5(c), (d) (e) BSS BSS 11 4.1.2 4.1.7 BSS GSM PoT MSM PoT GSM PoT MSM PoT GSM PoT GSM100 MSM PoT 2009 7 BSS 1 4.1.6 GSM PoT y = x GSM 100 12 PoT 12 GSM PoT MSM PoT GSM PoT 68
4.1.4 MSM PoT GSM PoT 20 km BSS 4.1.7 4.1.7(c) MSM PoT BSS GSM PoT MSM PoT GSM PoT 4.1.4 4.1.8 4.1.1 PoT 4.1.9 4.1.10 4.1.9 GSM PoT PoT GSM PoT 4.1.3 GSM PoT 4.1.10 MSM PoT GSM PoT MSM PoT 4.1.11 2015 4 14 09UTC MSM PoT MSM PoT PoT MSM PoT MSM PoT MSM PoT PoT PoT 1 4.1.5 (1) (2) (3) 3 1. ETS 2. 3. 4. 1. 20% 4. GSM PoT MSM PoT (2009) 69
4.1.5 ETS BSS (a) (b) ETS (a)gsm PoT (b)msm PoT (c), (d) (e) BSS (c) (d)gsm PoT (e)msm PoT (a) (b) (c) (d), (e) 4.1.6 (a) GSM PoT (b) GSM PoT (c) MSM PoT (d) MSM PoT 4.1.7 MSM BSS (a) MSM PoT BSS (b) MSM PoT (c) MSM PoT BSS (c) MSM PoT 70
4.1.8 2014 6 25 06UTC MSM PoT[%] A.2.7 4.1.9 4.1.8 2015 1 23 00UTC GSM PoT[%] 4.1.10 4.1.8 2015 7 19 18UTC MSM PoT[%] 4.1.11 4.1.8 2015 4 14 09UTC MSM PoT[%] 71
,, 2013: 39. 25,, 1 17., 2014:. 26,, 35 39., 2007:. 19,, 91 93., 2009:. 21,, 39 43., 2014:. 26,, 1 3. 72
4.2 1 4.2.1 ( 2007) 2 2013 2015 4.2.2 4.2.1 GSM MSM GSM GSM-G MSM MSM-G 4.2.1 GSM-G MSM-G FT 4.2.1 GSM MSM (UTC) 00 18 6 h 00 21 3 h FT=3 84 FT=1 39 () 1 1 2 ( 4.2.2) MSM-G 15UTC (4.2.1) 3 0.7 0.3 (4.2.1) MSM 18UTC 21UTC 4.2.3 2013 10 1 2014 3 31 2014 4 1 9 30 GSM 00UTC (FT=3 84) 154 RMSE ME 4.2.1 RMSE RMSE 3 5% RMSE 10 12% ME 1 ME 0% RMSE 3 6% ME 4.2.2 (UTC) GSM 00UTC GSM 06UTC GSM 12UTC GSM 18UTC MSM 00UTC MSM 03UTC MSM 06UTC MSM 09UTC MSM 12UTC MSM 15UTC 3 73
4.2.1 RMSE ME GSM 00UTC FT=3 84 (a) (2013 10 1 2014 3 31 ) (b) (2014 4 1 9 30 ) RMSE ME RMSE ME 4.2.2 RMSE ME MSM 00UTC FT=1 39 (a) (2013 10 1 2014 3 31 ) (b) (2014 4 1 9 30 ) RMSE ME RMSE ME MSM 00UTC (FT=1 39) RMSE ME 4.2.2 RMSE 9 10% RMSE 2 4% ME ME 0% RMSE 1 4% ME 0% ME 0% RMSE GSM MSM RMSE 8 10% ME 0 1% GSM-G MSM-G MSM-G 00UTC GSM-G00UTC FT=24 RMSE 4.2.3 RMSE 8 10% 12 13% ME GSM-G 00UTC FT=24 ( 4.2.4) RMSE RMSE RMSE RMSE 74
4.2.3 RMSE[%] GSM- G 00UTC FT=24 (2013 10 1 2014 3 31 ) 4.2.4 RMSE[%] GSM- G 00UTC FT=24 (2014 4 1 9 30 ) 4.2.5 RMSE[%] MSM- G 00UTC FT=24 (2013 10 1 2014 3 31 ) 4.2.6 RMSE[%] MSM- G 00UTC FT=24 (2014 4 1 9 30 ) 6% MSM-G 00UTC FT=24 RMSE( 4.2.5) RMSE 8 10% GSM-G 12 13% RMSE GSM-G ME GSM-G 75
4.2.7 RMSE ME GSM-G 12UTC (2013 10 1 2014 3 31 ) (2014 4 1 2014 9 30 ) 4.2.8 RMSE ME MSM-G 15UTC (2013 10 1 2014 3 31 ) (2014 4 1 2014 9 30 ) 4.2.9 RMSE ME GSM-G 12UTC (2013 10 1 2014 3 31 ) (2014 4 1 2014 9 30 ) 4.2.10 RMSE ME MSM-G 15UTC (2013 10 1 2014 3 31 ) (2014 4 1 2014 9 30 ) MSM-G 00UTC FT=24 4.2.6GSM-G RMSE RMSE RMSE GSM- G GSM-G RMSE 6% GSM-G FT=24 GSM-G 12UTC RMSE ME 4.2.7RMSE 6 7% ME 0% MSM-G 15UTC RMSE ME 4.2.8 RMSE 5% GSM 12UTC ME 0% GSM-G MSM-G 24 GSM-G 12UTC RMSE ME 4.2.9RMSE 2 3% ME MSM-G 15UTC 76
4.2.11 MSM 2015 1 12 MSM15UTC MSM15UTC 4.2.12 MSM 2015 6 12 13 MSM00UTC MSM00UTC RMSE ME 4.2.10 RMSE 2% 1% ME 0% GSM-G MSM-G 4.2.4 (1) 2015 1 12 2015 1 12 MSM 4.2.11 12 13 GSM MSM 4.2.3 GSM-G MSM-G 40% 23% 50% 25% 40% 25% (2) 2015 6 13 2015 6 13 6 12 12 12 20 40 JST 2 km 21 10 1 km 23 30 500 m 13 13 03 2 km 06 5 km 09 8 km 13 13 12 13 MSM 4.2.12 12 13 90% 100% 13 93 94% 100% 100% 4.2.5 4.2.3 GSM MSM 12 GSM-G 2015 1 11 12UTC 37.7% MSM-G 2015 1 11 15UTC 40.1% 40% 77
, 2007:. 19,, 78 79.,, 2009:. 21,, 27 38. 4.2.6 GSM-G MSM-G MSM-G MSM-G GSM-G 100% 4.2.7 ( 2009) 78
4.3 1 4.3.1 ( 1992) ( 1994) 4.3.1 2007 11 ( 2007) GSM MSM 2 2012 8 LFM LFM 3 (2007) 4.3.2 ( 2007) GSM MSM 2014 10 1 2015 3 31 LFM 2015 2 1 4 30 4 GSM 0.4 0.5 MSM 1 0.03 mm/h 0.05 mm/h 4.3.1 LFM MSM GSM MSM 4.3.2 4.3.3 GSM MSM 8.4% 7.4% 6.0% 1 2 2015 3 2015 5 4 LFM asuca 1 4.3.1 Pr1 : 1 [mm/h] Cl : Cm : Ch : Clmh= 1 (1 Cl)(1 Cm)(1 Ch) :Clm= 1 (1 Cl)(1 Cm) : R yuki : R ame : Clmh k : Clm k : Kaisei : (2007) 4.3.1 GSM MSM LFM R yuki 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.03 R ame 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 Clmh k 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Clm k 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Kaisei 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 LFM 4.3.4 LFM GSM MSM 79
4.3.2 GSM ( 2014 10 1 2015 3 31 ) 4.3.3 MSM ( 2014 10 1 2015 3 31 ) 4.3.4 LFM ( 2015 2 1 2015 4 30 ) 4.3.3 4.3.5 2015 3 11 18UTC FT=6 4.3.6 4.3.7 4.3.8 GSM, MSM LFM MSM 4.3.4 GSM MSM GSM 2014 3 GSM ( 2014) 0.4 0.5 GSM ( 2004) GSM ( 2012) 3 50%/3h 50%/3h 1 3 1 mm/3h 0.5 mm/3h, 2007:. 19,, 94 97., 2004:. 50,, 72 80.,, 2012:. 24,, 92 96., 1992:. 4,, 69 82., 2014:. 26,, 19 23., 1994:. 6,, 90 91. 80
4.3.6 (2015 3 12 09JST) 4.3.7 (2015 3 12 09JST 1 4.3.5 (2015 3 11 18UTC 12 09JST) (a) GSM (b) MSM (c) LFM 4.3.8 (2015 3 12 09JST 1 81