ロシア経済の現状と展望

2000 TEK 1 GDP 2004 2005 2006 2004 100 2005 100 100 2 100 2005 1855 150 60 2006 50 3 50 27 11 NHK BS 23 26 2005.6.10 2004.3 p.20. 29

60 4 5 6 2004 10 14 7 8 BRICs 9 21 CNPC 10 SCO 11 SCO 60 60 2005.5.7 60 2005.5.8 60 2005.5.10.., " :.", 14 1275, 2005. V. 14 1275 2005.4.., ", -!", 15 1276, 16 1277 2005.4. G. 15 1276, 16 1277, 2005.4., 2005.3 p.136. 71 2005.3 pp.597-614; 4000, 2003.3. 2005.6.2. http://www.mainichi-msn.co.jp/today/news/p20050602k0000e030017000c.html 2005.7.2; 2005. 7.2. 1996 2001 2005.7.6; 2005.7.6 30

12 18 25 1800 8200 13 14 11 14 2000 GDP 2000 10.0 2001 5.1 2002 4.7 2003 7.3 2004 7.1 15 GDP 16 2004 GDP GDP 16 7790 14 6370 1420 17 99 18 2000 17.4 2001 10.0 2002 2.8 2003 12.5 2004 10.9 2002 2005.7.9 http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20050709-00000043-kyodo-int 2005.8.17. ; 18 2005.8.17 http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20050817-00000198-kyodo-int ; 2005.8.19. ; 2005.8.26 2005.6.14 http://www.nikkei.co.jp/ne ws/past/honbun.cfm?i=stxkc0693+14062005&g=mh&d=20050614 ; 2005.6.15 ; 2005.6.16. ; 07 2005.6.15 http://www.worldtimes.co.jp/news/bus/kiji/2005-06-15t083242z_01_noo TR_RTRJONC_0_JAPAN-179586-1.html http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b01_19/iswprx.dll/stg/d000/i000030r.htm, p.206. http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/brus05/iswprx.dll/stg/12-01.htm, http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b01_19/iswprx.dll/stg/d000/i000030r.htm 31

19 2004 85 5.6 9.4 2000 29.9 2004 47.5 2000 23.9 2004 17.5 20 2000 109 5800 2004 405 900 3.7 2000 44 2900 2004 94 2000 2000 40.4 2004 23.3 2000 4500 2004 3300 21 GDP 2000 52.3 2001 55.8 2002 59.2 2003 58.1 2004 56.7 2000 5.9 2001 8.2 2002 7.7 2003 6.9 2004 10.0 22 2004 7.6 17.1 8.2 10.3 7.2 22.2 4.3 2.9 1.4 15.4 23, http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/brus05/iswprx.dll/stg/23-02.htm, http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/brus05/iswprx.dll/stg/23-04.htm, http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/brus05/iswprx.dll/stg/23-12.htm, http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/brus05/iswprx.dll/stg/07-01.htm, http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/brus05/iswprx.dll/stg/14-02.htm 32

2004 6,832 33,747 23,726 17,042 14,072 13,449 11,338 10,418 2,778 3,362 4,254 4,289 4,745 4,923 24 2000 31.6 2001 10.7 2002 17.1 2003 13.1 2004 28.3 2000 36.5 2001 25.2 2002 3.2 2003 8.6 2004 27.9 2000 35.9 2001 14.4 2002 12.6 2003 10.3 2004 14.9 25 2004 51 7360 56.7 2005 ILO 7.7 560 190 32 26 100 1700 EU25 66 34 4320 2005 80 20 GDP 80 20 80 20 90, http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/brus05/iswprx.dll/stg/07-09.htm, http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/brus05/iswprx.dll/stg/24-01.htm, http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b05_00/iswprx.dll/stg/d050/i050170r.htm 33

2003 57.3 2004 57.7 2003 9.0 2004 7.8 2003 37.3 2004 41.2 2003 21.1 2004 18.3 12 20 1991 12 14 26 27 28 1999 1999 2002 WTO 2003 2004 29 2004 2005 GDP 1998 No.866, 2004.8. pp.36-48 " 2004.", 2004.5.27.., " 2004 :." -, No.1, 2005, pp.6-8 2004 No.1,2005, pp.6-8, p.9-10. 34

400 346 1997 5.94 1998 20.65 30 31 NYMEX WTI IPE IPE 32 10 IPE 63 33 WTI 28 NYMEX 70 34 8.9 11 7000 940 3000 5000 7000 35 7400 952 2006 D. 2004 50, 2005.4, p.27. http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/russia/keizai.html DD HP http://www.tocomo.orjp/jp/souba/crude_oil/doc/oilkeizai200408_j.pdf 2005.8.10. 70 2005.8.29 http://news.goo.ne.jp/news/ky odo/keizai/20050829/20050829a2110.html?c=s ; 2005.8.29. http://news.goo.ne.jp/news/reuters/keizai/20050829/japan-185939.html?c=s 2005.7.9. 35

964 978 2007 980 994 2008 994 1010 935 36 37 97 5.94 98 20.65 2002 2003 2002 9.17 38 2003 2004 20.86 39 2000 27.75 18.54 28 40 TEK : EU 41 8.5 10 2000 27.55 42 2008 1000 2005.8.18 www.excite.co.jp/news/economy /20050818165848/JAPAN-185030-1_story.html., " ", No.3, 2005, p.31. No.3, 2005, p.31 D 2002 48, 2003.2, pp.30-31. D 2003 49, 2004.3, p.3 "2004 : - ", B, No.6, 2005, p.25. 2004 No.6, 2005, p.25. 2005.2.5. 2000 2005.3.10. 2005.3.22. 36

21 43 13.3 12 10 44 27 45 12 46 30 35 47 2003 TEK 1998 2000 GDP 1997 39.3 1999 33.6 2000 2003 36.5 37.6 GDP 12.5 2001 2003 16.7 17.8 GDP 1999 2003 38 99 GDP 85 2003 28 48 GDP 80 49 90 GDP 0.45 50 2001 2002 2005.4.13. charge.biz.yahoo.co.jp/vip/news/rtr/050413/050413_mbiz2450414.html 2005.4.27. http://news.www.infoseek.co.jp/market/story.html?q=27bloomberga6nhnzln1kxq&cat=10 2005.4.27. http://news.goo.ne.jp/news/reuters/keizai/20050427/japan-175847.html 2005.8.2. http://www.world times.co.jp/news/bus/kiji/2005-08-02t054757z_01_nootr_rtrjonc_0_japan-183535-1.html IMF "Russian Federation : 2003 Article Consultation-Staff Report", IMF Coutry Report No.03/144 http://www.imt.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2003/cr03/44.ptf., "Russian Federation : 2004 Article Consultation-Staff Report" IMF Country Report No.04/314 http://www.imt.org/external/pubs/ft/sc r/2004/cr04314.pdf. " ",, No.6, 2005, p.5. No.6, 2005, p.5. Kwon, G. "Post-crisis Fiscal Revenue Developments in Russia: From an Oil Perspective", Public Finance and Management, vol.3, No.4. 2003., p.4. 37

51 2004 19.7 31.2 2005 52 25 90 53 2004 2005 GDP 18 7200 2327 GDP 11.93 479 GDP 16.3 11 22 54 12 23 2005 55 TEK 2003 598 6000 2004 883 5000 56 2003 2002 366 478 6.6 57 2003 1.5 769 58 2004 1174 2004 1197 2005 1105 59 2005 2004 2002 http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/ 2003/0609symposium/summary.pdf, p.37. 2005.4.23. 22 2004.No 670 "- " 23 2004.No 173 "2005." 883 04 48. 2005.2.25., pp.32-33., p.6..,., " ", 4, 2005, p.5 4, 2005, p.5 38

60 2004 61 477 40 70 38 121 10 357 30 850 33 50 762 90 66 62 2005 1518 450 500 63 11 64 2007 2008 65 2003 35 18 22 GDP 0.45 12 12 2004 500 1500 1700 66 2004 1060 2674 3059 GDP 3.8 5000 67, p.7. 1956 G 19, pp.6-8. STRANA.RU http://www2e.biglobe.ne.jp/~tis-russ/strana.htm IMF 2004.11.19. 12 http://www2e.biglobe.ne.jp/~tis-russ/izv.htm SMI.RU http://www2e.biglobe.ne.jp/~tis-russ/smi.htm, pp.27-28. 39

2005 5744 68 9545 4301 6179 216 69 70 71 2004 11 2006 180 100 180 72 73 74 75 2002 2002 18, 2005.7.22. http://news.goo.ne.jp/news/reuters/keizai/20050722/japan-182757.html, p.16., 2004,4 11 " - ",, 19 1280, 2005 No.19 1280, 2005.5. 84 e http: //www.ksrt.ru/doc/law/10003000/index.htm 40

10 GDP 3.5 4.6 WTO 76 2003 2003 16 GDP 20 30 25 1999 400 32 1999 2010 GDP 77 2004 2004 26 1989 40 2003 GDP 10 2010 2010 GDP 2002 2002 18 No.841, 2002.7, pp.34-48 " ", 2002.4.18. 2003 No.854, 2003.8, pp.28-41. " ", 2003.5.17. 2003 2004 2010 No.854, 2003.8, pp.20-27. 41

78 2005 25 79 1982 80 1999 283 16 4500 743 95 81 GDP 2003 2004 2003 12 1.5 2005 GDP GDP 82 2004 2004 26 No.866, 2004.8, pp.36-48. " ", 2004.5.27. " ", 2005.4.26. " ",, 16 4549, 2005. - 2005.4.25., p.11. 42

83 2005 2008 2004 84 2010 GDP GDP 2006 2007 2008 5.5 85 2005 GDP 7.6 5.6 4.0 3.3 9.4 12.6 GDP 14.1 2.7 8.5 10 86 14 87 GDP 88 GDP 2003 7.3 2004 7.1 IMF 2004 11.7 11.5 IMF GDP 89 2003 2007 2005 2008, pp.17-18., p.18. 2005.4.7. http://blog.yahoo.co.jp/brics_dana/folder/112930.html, " -. 2005 " pp.18-22 http://www.iet.ru/files/text/trends/07-05.pdf 2005 pp.18-22. 2005.6.14. http://www.worldtimes.c o.jp/news/bus/kiji/2005-06-14t200517z_01_nootr_rtrjonc_0_japan-179553-1.html GDP 2005.7.14. http://news.www.infoseek.co.jp/market/story.html?q=14bloomberga87oixyhnc4w&cat=10 43

OECD GDP 90 1998 20 2005 1518 1299 1300 131 33 100 50 91 1299 234 92 GDP 42.5 2001 32.3 GDP 5.6 3.9 19.5 11.0 93 2002 930 2003 1284 2004 1779 94 67.9 6534 30.1 34 62.7 59.6 2004 80.5 5640 20.1 860 95 2002 2003 11 96 0.15 95,000 2007 97 2004 26 98 2004 " " 99 IMF 05 2005.6.24. http://news.www.infoseek.co.jp/market/story.html?q=24bloombergak1aespm0ggs&cat=10 OECD 2005.5.24. http://news.www.infoseek.co.jp/market/story.html?q=24bloombergavbpk8h7ob50&cat=10 http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/brus05/iswprx.dll/stg/22-08.htm, http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/brus05/iswprx.dll/stg/22-09.htm, " 2008 " p.1. http://www.minfin.ru/bankref/strat120505.htm 2008 p.1.), p.7., 15 23 2003.No 177- " ", No.52, 2003. No. 866, 2004.8, p.30. 44

100 2008 IMF 2009 GDP 56 60 GDP GDP 26 28 2005 2006 38 101 2005 IMF 102 2004 22 122 103, 22 ETAP, 13 " - 2004 :", B, No.6, 2005, p.36. 2004 No.6, 2005, p.36. 100 2004.7.9 101 102., " ", No.8, 2003, pp.4-30 No.8, 2003, pp.4-30 45

2005 12 104 58 39 105 1990 2001 12 106 401K 107 2002 108 2004 2002 380 2003 500 607 25 78 0.5 0.5 0.6 13 97 109 103 22 2004. " " " ", " " ", No.34, 2004. 104, p.47. 105 2005.1.17; 2005.1.17. 106 17 2001 No.173- " ", No.52, 2001. 107 HP http://www.jiia.or.jp/pdf/r ussia_centre/h14_putin/07_shinoda.pdf 108 24 2004. " ", No.30, 2004. 109, pp.56-57. 46

GDP PPP 2004 110 2004 2010 111 2005 112 20 113 IT 114 2004 115 1990 RTS 1995 60 116 1998 RTSI 1995 100 25 200 1997 10 23 25 300 400 500 RTSI 1997 10 110, p.21 ;, pp.45-46. 111, pp.45-46. 112 22 2005. No.116- " " 113, p.32. 114 2005.7.16. 115 1992 USAID 2005.4.2. 116 "Asian Stocks World" http://www.asianstocks.info/ru/main.htm 47

28 571.66 28 19.03 10 RTSI 37.74 RTSI 100 1999 24 12 12 31 16.85 14 RTSI 200 2002 22 15 300 400 RTSI 2003 23 10 500 600 2004 611 614 18 700 736 117 2005 RTSI 800 900 28 1000 118 RTS FORTS RTS 270 43 750 500 119 2003 IPO 2004 10 10 IPO 2006 150 6300 10 120 1998 2001 2002 OFZ AD GKO OFZ 11 2078 300 121 2000 2004 100 2003 23 2004 24 117, pp.33-34. 118 "28 2005 1000 ", http://www.rts. ru/index. cfm?id=7480 2005 28 1000 HP http:// www.rts.ru /index.cfm?id=7480 119 " ", http://www.rts.ru/index.cfm?tid=31&mtid=10000 HP htt p://www.rts.ru/index.cfm?tid=31&mtid=10000 120 IPO 06 150 10 2005.6.20. http://news.www.infoseek.co.jp/market/story.html?q=20bloomberga.vu.5yrplh8&cat=10 121, pp.35-36. 48

10 671 794 122 2002 TEK 12.7 2004 GKO OBR 123 IT IT 2002 GDP 1.8 124 2004 50 2004 6000 50 7860 125 1998 62,000 2002 186,000 1998 235,000 2000 783,000 2002 525,000 1998 60,000 2000 115,000 2002 108,000 1998 329,000 2002 1,980,000 90 2003 1998 15 10 2001 1998 2003 25 1992 126 122, pp.39-40. 123, p.10 ;, pp.31-32. 124 1953 K. 1960 H.J. 1968 1979 NTT DoCoMo R&D 1999.03. http:www.nttdocomo.co.jp/corporate/rd/tech/04_01.html ; Vol.82, No.2, 1999.2, pp.102-107. 125 IT, 2005.8.22. 126., " ", No.4, 2005, p.119. K. No.4, 2005, p.119. 49

- - 2001 HP 2002 2010 127 128 2003 281 42 3000 2004 572 3000 294 4000 129 127 " " http://www.economy.gov.ru/wds/portal/russian 128 http://www.economy.gov.ru/wds/portal/!ut/p/.cmd/cs/ce/70a/.s/ 7055p/th/J0CH/s. 70A/7055L/me/7 129, " " -, No.4, 2005, p.122-123. No.4, 2005, p.122-123. 50

241 8746 1495 3.86 3815 9345 4470 5.63 130 IT 230 IT 131 oil for food 1970 oil for food 132 133 134 TEK 93 GDP 135 2005 9.4 130 129, p.127. 131 IT 2005.8.22. 132, p.15. 133., " ", 3, 2005, p.15. 3, 2005, p.15. 134 19 19, 1979, p.1091 ;, 1978, p.157. 135 133, pp.19-20. 51

12.6 100 GDP 2004 2020 136 2004 2007 137 76 6000 138 TEK IT 136 " 2020 " 137 ", " 138, p.50-51. 52